Dynamic Analysis of Safety Performance Indicators for CO2 Capture, Transport and Storage Activities

We are grateful to the publisher of Chemical Engineering Transactions, for letting this publication being archived in this Open Access repository. The publication is available at: http://dx.doi.org/10.3303/CET1226025International audienceCapture, Transport and storage of CO2 (CTSC) is a novel technology for mitigating CO2 emissions in the atmosphere and reduce the climate change impacts on ecosystems, human beings and natural resources. However, potential technical, environmental, health, safety and social risks associated with CTSC activities should be studied in order to reassure the stakeholders that CTSC will not have adverse effects on human beings and environment. CTSC can be considered as a complex sociotechnical system, for which traditional risk management approaches are not appropriate. An integrated approach is required for risk management of CTSC. The integrated approach should cover the interactions of capture, transport and storage, as well as the technical, organizational and human aspects of risk. The purpose is to evaluate the performance of safety control system in CO2 Capture, Transport and Storage chain. The idea is to develop a dynamic risk management framework by modeling the principal variables that are significant in terms of safety of CTSC, and study the evolution of these variables over time. These variables can be the ones that are integrated into the Safety Management System (SMS) in order to implement them into a scorecard containing the variation of key performance indicators over time, both in normal operation of the system, and in case of a failure. In this context, system dynamics is used for modeling. The model will allow us to know how the interaction of different variables (technique, organizational or human) may result in variation of performance indicators. The proposed methodology is based on eight steps that will be presented in the paper. The proposed framework is applied to an integrated CTSC project with an enterprise as the owner, and several firms and organizations as operators, designers and stakeholders. In this paper, the approach will be explained in detail and some preliminary results will be presented

A new dynamic risk analysis framework for CO2 Capture, Transport and Storage chain,

Availaible: http://www.systemdynamics.org/conferences/2011/proceed/papers/P1249.pdfInternational audienceCO2 emission of industrial facilities is a major cause of climate change that affects the ecosystems, human beings and environment. Capture, Transport and Storage of CO2 (CTSC) is a novel technology of mitigating the impacts of climate change. The uncertainties concerning long term reliability of CTSC technology give rise to the significance of risk assessment for CTSC activities. Since CTSC is a complex sociotechnical system, traditional risk assessment approaches are not appropriate for CTSC. Lessons learned of industrial accidents show that a combination of technical, organizational and human aspects of risk results in occurrence of accidents. Therefore, we recommend to develop an integrated risk analysis framework for CTSC chain. The framework is developed by modeling CTSC chain by system dynamics approach. System dynamics is a support for risk assessment that allows understanding the interactions of CTSC system's elements in the first step, and then study the behavior of the system over time both in normal operation mode and in case of a failure or deviance. In this paper, the methodology is explained in detail, and the application of the methodology for an integrated CTSC project is discussed

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Development of a systemic risk management approach for CO2 capture, transport and storage projects

Cette thèse concerne l'étude des risques associés aux projets de CTSC (Captage, Transport et Stockage de CO2) dont le développement est prévu à l'échelle industrielle. Les projets de CTSC sont des systèmes sociotechniques complexes pour lesquels une approche systémique de management des risques est nécessaire. L'approche doit couvrir les différents aspects du risque pour analyser l'influence de la dynamique des risques sur la dynamique des projets. Une méthodologie systémique de management des risques est proposée. Cette méthodologie est fondée sur les concepts de la pensée systémique, de l'approche STAMP (Systems-Theoretic Accident Model and Processes) développée au sein du Massachusetts Institute of Technology, et de la dynamique des systèmes. L'objectif est de modéliser et d'analyser la structure de contrôle de sécurité impliquée dans un projet de CTSC. La structure de contrôle de sécurité est la structure organisationnelle des parties prenantes (contrôleurs) qui sont responsables de maintenir les contraintes de la sécurité. L'objectif de cette structure de contrôle de sécurité dans cette thèse est d'éviter le retard ou l'échec des projets de CTSC. Cet objectif a été reformulé comme étant la définition et le management des risques majeurs qui pourraient empêcher ou limiter le maintien des contraintes de sécurité. Les risques ont été d'abord identifiés et classés selon huit catégories : Technique, SSE (Santé, Sécurité et Environnement), Politique/Stratégie, Réglementation, Organisationnel/Humain, Financier/Economique, Social et Projet. Les risques majeurs liés aux phases amont ont été extraits et modélisés en utilisant la méthodologie proposée. Les rétroactions affectant la propagation et l'amplification de chaque risque ont été étudiées. Les structures de contrôle de sécurité, le contexte et les risques associés des projets de Barendrecht, de Lacq et de Weyburn ont été analysés. L'application de la méthodologie sur ces trois retours d'expériences permet de proposer un modèle générique de contrôle de sécurité pour les projets de CTSC. L'accent est mis sur le rôle majeur des facteurs endogènes conduisant à l'échec des projets de CTSC. Ce modèle met en évidence les flux d'information et de communication entre les parties prenantes qui conduisent à améliorer leurs modèles mentaux et leurs décisions.This thesis is concerned with understanding the risks associated with the development of CTSC (Capture, Transport & Storage of CO2) projects up to industrial scales. CTSC projects are complex sociotechnical systems for which a systemic risk management approach is required. The approach has to cover different aspects of risk in order to analyze how dynamics of risks affect dynamics of projects. A systemic risk management framework is proposed based on the concepts of systems thinking, STAMP (Systems-Theoretic Accident Model and Processes), developed at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, and system dynamics. The objective is to model and analyze the safety control structure involved in a CTSC project. Safety control structure is the organizational structure of stakeholders (controllers) who are responsible for maintaining safety constraints. The goal of safety control structure in this work is to prevent CTSC project delay or failure. This goal has been rephrased as definition and treatment of major risks that could avoid maintaining safety constraints. The risks have been firstly identified and classified in eight main categories including Technical, HSE (Health, Safety and Environment), Policy/Strategy, Legal, Organizational/Human, Financial/Economic, Social and Project. The major risks related to the phases prior to engineering have been extracted and modeled by the proposed methodology. Feedback networks affecting the amplification of each risk have been studied. Safety control structures, context and associated risks of Barendrecht, Lacq and Weyburn projects have been analyzed in order to propose a generic safety control model for CTSC projects. Emphasis is placed on the significance of finding endogenous explanations for the failure of CTSC projects. The model highlights the flow of information and communication among stakeholders leading to improve their mental models and decisions

Développement d'une approche systémique de management des risques pour les projets de captage, transport et stockage de CO2

This thesis is concerned with understanding the risks associated with the development of CTSC (Capture, Transport & Storage of CO2) projects up to industrial scales. CTSC projects are complex sociotechnical systems for which a systemic risk management approach is required. The approach has to cover different aspects of risk in order to analyze how dynamics of risks affect dynamics of projects. A systemic risk management framework is proposed based on the concepts of systems thinking, STAMP (Systems-Theoretic Accident Model and Processes), developed at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, and system dynamics. The objective is to model and analyze the safety control structure involved in a CTSC project. Safety control structure is the organizational structure of stakeholders (controllers) who are responsible for maintaining safety constraints. The goal of safety control structure in this work is to prevent CTSC project delay or failure. This goal has been rephrased as definition and treatment of major risks that could avoid maintaining safety constraints. The risks have been firstly identified and classified in eight main categories including Technical, HSE (Health, Safety and Environment), Policy/Strategy, Legal, Organizational/Human, Financial/Economic, Social and Project. The major risks related to the phases prior to engineering have been extracted and modeled by the proposed methodology. Feedback networks affecting the amplification of each risk have been studied. Safety control structures, context and associated risks of Barendrecht, Lacq and Weyburn projects have been analyzed in order to propose a generic safety control model for CTSC projects. Emphasis is placed on the significance of finding endogenous explanations for the failure of CTSC projects. The model highlights the flow of information and communication among stakeholders leading to improve their mental models and decisions.Cette thèse concerne l'étude des risques associés aux projets de CTSC (Captage, Transport et Stockage de CO2) dont le développement est prévu à l'échelle industrielle. Les projets de CTSC sont des systèmes sociotechniques complexes pour lesquels une approche systémique de management des risques est nécessaire. L'approche doit couvrir les différents aspects du risque pour analyser l'influence de la dynamique des risques sur la dynamique des projets. Une méthodologie systémique de management des risques est proposée. Cette méthodologie est fondée sur les concepts de la pensée systémique, de l'approche STAMP (Systems-Theoretic Accident Model and Processes) développée au sein du Massachusetts Institute of Technology, et de la dynamique des systèmes. L'objectif est de modéliser et d'analyser la structure de contrôle de sécurité impliquée dans un projet de CTSC. La structure de contrôle de sécurité est la structure organisationnelle des parties prenantes (contrôleurs) qui sont responsables de maintenir les contraintes de la sécurité. L'objectif de cette structure de contrôle de sécurité dans cette thèse est d'éviter le retard ou l'échec des projets de CTSC. Cet objectif a été reformulé comme étant la définition et le management des risques majeurs qui pourraient empêcher ou limiter le maintien des contraintes de sécurité. Les risques ont été d'abord identifiés et classés selon huit catégories : Technique, SSE (Santé, Sécurité et Environnement), Politique/Stratégie, Réglementation, Organisationnel/Humain, Financier/Economique, Social et Projet. Les risques majeurs liés aux phases amont ont été extraits et modélisés en utilisant la méthodologie proposée. Les rétroactions affectant la propagation et l'amplification de chaque risque ont été étudiées. Les structures de contrôle de sécurité, le contexte et les risques associés des projets de Barendrecht, de Lacq et de Weyburn ont été analysés. L'application de la méthodologie sur ces trois retours d'expériences permet de proposer un modèle générique de contrôle de sécurité pour les projets de CTSC. L'accent est mis sur le rôle majeur des facteurs endogènes conduisant à l'échec des projets de CTSC. Ce modèle met en évidence les flux d'information et de communication entre les parties prenantes qui conduisent à améliorer leurs modèles mentaux et leurs décisions

Systemic Methodology for Risk Management of CTSC Projects

International audienc

Future of CO2 Capture, Transport and Storage Projects: Analysis using a Systemic Risk Management Approach

International audienceThis book presents a summary of a three-year research project on risk management for the Capture, Transport and Storage of CO2 (CTSC), offering an in-depth study on complex sociotechnical systems and systemic modeling. Approaching CTSC as a complex sociotechnical system, this book proposes systemic modeling as a decision-making aid. It offers a means of decision-making for the development of CTSC projects in the real-world context, where the future of the technology is uncertain. Risk management is considered as a means of control that can provide a control structure for the whole system. The risks associated with CTSC are not exclusively technical in nature; CTSC also faces a number of further uncertainties, from development to commercial scales. A major question concerning CTSC at the current scale of development is: "What are the factors explaining the success or failure of CTSC projects in different contexts?" In order to answer this question, the book proposes a systemic risk management framework based on the system dynamics and STAMP (Systems-Theoretic Accident Model and Processes) concepts

Systems Theory, System Dynamics and Their Contribution to CTSC Risk Management.

International audienc

CTSC, Risk Management and requirement of a systemic approach

International audienc

Towards an integrated risk analysis framework for CO2 Capture, Transport and Storage

International audienceCapture, Transport and Storage of CO 2 (CTSC) is a novel technology of mitigating the impacts of climate change. The uncertainties concerning long term reliability of CTSC technology give rise to the significance of risk assessment for CTSC activities. Since CTSC is a complex sociotechnical system, traditional risk assessment approaches are not appropriate for CTSC. Therefore, we recommend to develop an integrated risk analysis framework for CTSC chain. The framework is developed by modeling CTSC chain by system dynamics approach. System dynamics is a support for risk assessment that allows understanding the interactions of CTSC system's elements in the first step, and then study the behavior of the system over time both in normal operation mode and in case of a failure or deviance. In this paper, the methodology is explained in detail, and the application of the methodology for an integrated CTSC project is discussed