Proposal of A Probabilistic Model for Multi-Hazard Risk Assessment of Structures in Seismic Zones Subjected To Blast for the Limit State of Collapse,” Structural Safety

a b s t r a c t It is desirable to verify the structural performance based on a multi-hazard approach, taking into account the critical actions the structure in question could be subjected to during its lifetime. This study presents a proposal for a probabilistic model for multi-hazard risk associated with the limit state of collapse for a reinforced concrete (RC) structure subjected to blast threats in the presence of seismic risk. The annual risk of structural collapse is calculated taking into account both the collapse caused by an earthquake event and the blast-induced progressive collapse. The blast fragility is calculated using a simulation procedure for generating possible blast configurations, and verifying the structural stability under gravity loading of the damaged structure, using a kinematic plastic limit analysis. As a case study, the blast and seismic fragilities of a generic four-storey RC building located in seismic zone are calculated and implemented in the framework of a multi-hazard procedure, leading to the evaluation of the annual risk of collapse

Tsunami risk communication and management: Contemporary gaps and challenges

Very large tsunamis are associated with low probabilities of occurrence. In many parts of the world, these events have usually occurred in a distant time in the past. As a result, there is low risk perception and a lack of collective memories, making tsunami risk communication both challenging and complex. Furthermore, immense challenges lie ahead as population and risk exposure continue to increase in coastal areas. Through the last decades, tsunamis have caught coastal populations off-guard, providing evidence of lack of preparedness. Recent tsunamis, such as the Indian Ocean Tsunami in 2004, 2011 Tohoku and 2018 Palu, have shaped the way tsunami risk is perceived and acted upon. Based on lessons learned from a selection of past tsunami events, this paper aims to review the existing body of knowledge and the current challenges in tsunami risk communication, and to identify the gaps in the tsunami risk management methodologies. The important lessons provided by the past events call for strengthening community resilience and improvement in risk-informed actions and policy measures. This paper shows that research efforts related to tsunami risk communication remain fragmented. The analysis of tsunami risk together with a thorough understanding of risk communication gaps and challenges is indispensable towards developing and deploying comprehensive disaster risk reduction measures. Moving from a broad and interdisciplinary perspective, the paper suggests that probabilistic hazard and risk assessments could potentially contribute towards better science communication and improved planning and implementation of risk mitigation measures

How to measure influence in social networks?

Today, social networks are a valued resource of social data that can be used to understand the interactions among people and communities. People can influence or be influenced by interactions, shared opinions and emotions. How-ever, in the social network analysis, one of the main problems is to find the most influential people. This work aims to report on the results of literature review whose goal was to identify and analyse the metrics, algorithms and models used to measure the user influence on social networks. The search was carried out in three databases: Scopus, IEEEXplore, and ScienceDirect. We restricted pub-lished articles between the years 2014 until 2020, in English, and we used the following keywords: social networks analysis, influence, metrics, measurements, and algorithms. Backward process was applied to complement the search consid-ering inclusion and exclusion criteria. As a result of this process, we obtained 25 articles: 12 in the initial search and 13 in the backward process. The literature review resulted in the collection of 21 influence metrics, 4 influence algorithms, and 8 models of influence analysis. We start by defining influence and presenting its properties and applications. We then proceed by describing, analysing and categorizing all that were found metrics, algorithms, and models to measure in-fluence in social networks. Finally, we present a discussion on these metrics, al-gorithms, and models. This work helps researchers to quickly gain a broad per-spective on metrics, algorithms, and models for influence in social networks and their relative potentialities and limitations.This work has been supported by IViSSEM: POCI-01-0145-FEDER-28284, COMPETE: POCI-01-0145-FEDER-007043 and FCT – Fundação para a Ciência e Tecnologia within the R&D Units Project Scope: UIDB/00319/2020

existing buildings the new italian provisions for probabilistic seismic assessment

In Europe, the reference document for the seismic assessment of buildings is the Eurocode 8-Part3, whose first draft goes back to 1996 and, for what concerns its safety format, has strong similarities with FEMA 276. Extended use of this document, especially in Italy after the 2009 L'Aquila earthquake has shown its inadequacy to provide consistent and univocal results. This situation has motivated the National Research Council of Italy to produce a document of a level higher than the one in force, characterized by a fully probabilistic structure allowing to account for all types of uncertainties and providing measures of performance in terms of mean rates of exceedance for a selected number of Limit States (LS). The document, which covers both reinforced concrete and masonry buildings, offers three alternative approaches to risk assessment, all of them belonging to the present consolidated state of knowledge in the area. These approaches include, in decreasing order of accuracy: (a) Incremental dynamic analysis on the complete structural model, (b) Incremental dynamic analysis on equivalent SDOF oscillator(s), (c) Non-linear static analysis. In all three approaches relevant uncertainties are distinguished in two classes: those amenable of description as continuous random variables and those requiring the set-up of different structural models. The first ones are taken into account by sampling a number of realizations from their respective distributions and by associating each realization with one of the records used for evaluating the structural response, the latter by having recourse to a logic tree. Exceedance of each of the three considered Limit States: Light or Severe damage and Collapse, is signaled by a scalar indicator Y, expressing the global state of the structure as a function of that of its members, taking a value of one when the Limit State is reached. For the first two LS's, which relate to functionality and to economic considerations, the formulation of Y is such as to leave to the owner the choice of the acceptable level of damage, while for the Collapse LS the formulation is obviously unique. An application to a real school building completes the paper

Tsunami risk communication and management: Contemporary gaps and challenges

Supplementary data: The following is the Supplementary data to this article: Acrobat PDF file (2MB) available at: https://ars.els-cdn.com/content/image/1-s2.0-S2212420921007329-mmc1.pdfCopyright © 2022 The Authors. Very large tsunamis are associated with low probabilities of occurrence. In many parts of the world, these events have usually occurred in a distant time in the past. As a result, there is low risk perception and a lack of collective memories, making tsunami risk communication both challenging and complex. Furthermore, immense challenges lie ahead as population and risk exposure continue to increase in coastal areas. Through the last decades, tsunamis have caught coastal populations off-guard, providing evidence of lack of preparedness. Recent tsunamis, such as the Indian Ocean Tsunami in 2004, 2011 Tohoku and 2018 Palu, have shaped the way tsunami risk is perceived and acted upon. Based on lessons learned from a selection of past tsunami events, this paper aims to review the existing body of knowledge and the current challenges in tsunami risk communication, and to identify the gaps in the tsunami risk management methodologies. The important lessons provided by the past events call for strengthening community resilience and improvement in risk-informed actions and policy measures. This paper shows that research efforts related to tsunami risk communication remain fragmented. The analysis of tsunami risk together with a thorough understanding of risk communication gaps and challenges is indispensable towards developing and deploying comprehensive disaster risk reduction measures. Moving from a broad and interdisciplinary perspective, the paper suggests that probabilistic hazard and risk assessments could potentially contribute towards better science communication and improved planning and implementation of risk mitigation measures.COST (European Cooperation in Science and Technology); Royal Society, UK (grant number CHL\R1\180173); Severo Ochoa Centers of Excellence Program (CEX 2018-000797-S) funded by MCIN/ AEI /10.13039/501100011033; Lloyd's Tercentenary Research Foundation, the Lighthill Risk Network, and the Lloyd's Register Foundation-Data Centric Engineering Programme of the Alan Turing Institute

Seismic Performance of Historical Masonry Structures Through Pushover and Nonlinear Dynamic Analyses

Earthquakes are the main cause of damage for ancient masonry buildings. In order to reduce their vulnerability with compatible and light interventions, it is necessary to have accurate models for the seismic analysis, able to simulate the nonlinear behaviour of masonry, and well defined Performance-Based Assessment (PBA) procedure, aimed to guarantee acceptable levels of risk for the use of the building, the safety of occupants and the conservation of the monument itself. Displacement-based approach is the more appropriate for this type of structures, which cracks even for low intensity earthquakes and can survive to severe ones only if they have a sufficient displacement capacity. Among the wide variety of historical masonry structures, buildings characterized by a box-type behavior are here considered, which can be modeled through the equivalent frame model, considering the assembling of nonlinear piers and spandrels. Thus, the main object of the paper is to establish a strict equivalence between the use of static pushover and incremental dynamic analyses for the PBA. Pros and cons of the two methods are discussed, as well as some critical issues related to their application. A multiscale approach is proposed for the definition of the performance levels, which considers the seismic response at different scales: local damage in single elements, performance of single walls and horizontal diaphragms and global behavior. An original contribution is the use of Proper Orthogonal Decomposition (POD) technique for the correct interpretation of numerical and experimental dynamic results

In-situ tests and inspections for reliability assessment of RC buildings: how accurate?

Measuring the incomplete knowledge of the structural properties in as-built conditions is a formidable challenge in the performance-based seismic assessment of existing reinforced concrete (RC) buildings. Two basic sources of structural modeling uncertainties, which can directly affect the component demand and capacities and even influence the eventual structural collapse mechanism, are related to the mechanical properties of materials and the construction details. Recent European codes propose to consider the uncertainty in the knowledge of structural properties for an existing building by introducing an adjustment factor applied to the mean material strength, called Confidence Factor, whose value depends on the level of knowledge (KL) of structural properties. The latter (KL) is established as a function of number of in-situ tests and inspections available. The implementation of the code-based approach inevitably brings up several questions to be answered ranging from the implementation of the result of tests and inspections, and their relative measurement error. This work aims to introduce a Bayesian framework to quantify the relative error associated to the compressive concrete strength’s non-destructive ultrasonic tests. The proposed framework is applied to the test data available for an existing frame belonging to a pre-seismic code RC school building in Avellino (Campania), located in southern Italy. The framework also provides means of quantifying the relative weights of the concrete strength based on non-destructive test results for assessment of existing RC buildings