Forecasting directional changes in the FX markets

Most of existing studies sample markets' prices as time series when developing models to predict market's trend. Directional Changes (DC) is an approach to summarize market prices other than time series. DC marks the market as downtrend or uptrend based on the magnitude of prices changes. In this paper we address the problem of forecasting trend's direction in the foreign exchange (FX) market under the DC framework. In particularly we aim to answer the question of whether the current trend will continue for a specific percentage before the trend ends. We propose one single independent variable to make the forecast. We assess the accuracy of our approach using three currency pairs in the FX market; namely EUR/CHF, GBP/CHF, and USD/JPY. The experimental results show that the accuracy of the proposed forecasting model is very good; in some cases, forecasting accuracy was over 80%. However, under particular settings the accuracy may not outperform dummy prediction. The results confirm that directional changes are predictable, and the identified independent variable is useful for forecasting under the DC framework

Color Glass Condensate in Brane Models or Don't Ultra High Energy Cosmic Rays Probe 1015eV10^{15}eV Scale ?

In a previous work hep-ph/0203165 we have studied propagation of relativistic particles in the bulk for some of most popular brane models. Constraints have been put on the parameter space of these models by calculating the time delay due to propagation in the bulk of particles created during the interaction of Ultra High Energy Cosmic Rays with protons in the terrestrial atmosphere. The question was however raised that probability of hard processes in which bulk modes can be produced is small and consequently, the tiny flux of UHECRs can not constrain brane models. Here we use Color Glass Condensate (CGC) model to show that effects of extra dimensions are visible not only in hard processes when the incoming particle hits a massive Kaluza-Klein mode but also through the modification of soft/semi-hard parton distribution. At classical level, for an observer in the CM frame of UHECR and atmospheric hadrons, color charge sources are contracted to a thin sheet with a width inversely proportional to the energy of the ultra energetic cosmic ray hadron and consequently they can see an extra dimension with comparable size. Due to QCD interaction a short life swarm of partons is produced in front of the sheet and its partons can penetrate to the extra-dimension bulk. This reduces the effective density of partons on the brane or in a classical view creates a delay in the arrival of the most energetic particles if they are reflected back due to the warping of the bulk. In CGC approximation the density of swarm at different distance from the classical sheet can be related and therefore it is possible (at least formally) to determine the relative fraction of partons in the bulk and on the brane at different scales. Results of this work are also relevant to the test of brane models in hadron colliders like LHC.Comment: 17 pages, 3 figures. Text is modified to highlight the relation between the distribution gluons at high and low rapidity scales. v3: published versio

On the behaviour of single scale hard small xx processes in QCD near the black disc limit

We argue that at sufficiently small Bjorken $x$ where pQCD amplitude rapidly increases with energy and violates probability conservation the shadowing effects in the single-scale small $x$ hard QCD processes can be described by an effective quantum field theory of interacting quasiparticles. The quasiparticles are the perturbative QCD ladders. We find, within the WKB approximation, that the smallness of the QCD coupling constant ensures the hierarchy among many-quasiparticle interactions evaluated within physical vacuum and in particular, the dominance in the Lagrangian of the triple quasiparticle interaction. It is explained that the effective field theory considered near the perturbative QCD vacuum contains a tachyon relevant for the divergency of the perturbative QCD series at sufficiently small $x$. We solve the equations of motion of the effective field theory within the WKB approximation and find the physical vacuum and the transitions between the false (perturbative) and physical vacua. Classical solutions which dominate transitions between the false and physical vacua are kinks that cannot be decomposed into perturbative series over the powers of $\alpha_s$. These kinks lead to color inflation and the Bose-Einstein condensation of quasiparticles. The account of the quantum fluctuations around the WKB solution reveals the appearance of the "massless" particles-- "phonons". It is explained that "phonons" are relevant for the black disc behaviour of small $x$ processes, leading to a Froissart rise of the cross-section. The condensation of the ladders produces a color network occupying a "macroscopic" longitudinal volume. We discuss briefly the possible detection of new QCD effects.Comment: 24 pages, 1 Figure. References added, and several misprints eliminate

Electrospinning piezoelectric fibers for biocompatible devices

The field of nanotechnology has been gaining great success due to its potential in developing new generations of nanoscale materials with unprecedented properties and enhanced biological responses. This is particularly exciting using nanofibers, as their mechanical and topographic characteristics can approach those found in naturally occurring biological materials. Electrospinning is a key technique to manufacture ultrafine fibers and fiber meshes with multifunctional features, such as piezoelectricity, to be available on a smaller length scale, thus comparable to subcellular scale, which makes their use increasingly appealing for biomedical applications. These include biocompatible fiber-based devices as smart scaffolds, biosensors, energy harvesters, and nanogenerators for the human body. This paper provides a comprehensive review of current studies focused on the fabrication of ultrafine polymeric and ceramic piezoelectric fibers specifically designed for, or with the potential to be translated toward, biomedical applications. It provides an applicative and technical overview of the biocompatible piezoelectric fibers, with actual and potential applications, an understanding of the electrospinning process, and the properties of nanostructured fibrous materials, including the available modeling approaches. Ultimately, this review aims at enabling a future vision on the impact of these nanomaterials as stimuli-responsive devices in the human body

Solid-state synthesis of NASICON (Na3Zr2Si2PO12) using nanoparticle precursors for optimisation of ionic conductivity

In this work, the effect of varying the size of the precursor raw materials SiO2 and ZrO2 in the solid-state synthesis of NASICON in the form Na3Zr2Si2PO12 was studied. Nanoscale and macro-scale precursor materials were selected for comparison purposes, and a range of sintering times were examined (10, 24 and 40 h) at a temperature of 1230 °C. Na3Zr2Si2PO12 pellets produced from nanopowder precursors were found to produce substantially higher ionic conductivities, with improved morphology and higher density than those produced from larger micron-scaled precursors. The nanoparticle precursors were shown to give a maximum ionic conductivity of 1.16 × 10−3 S cm−1 when sintered at 1230 °C for 40 h, in the higher range of published solid-state Na3Zr2Si2PO12 conductivities. The macro-precursors gave lower ionic conductivity of 0.62 × 10−3 S cm−1 under the same processing conditions. Most current authors do not quote or consider the precursor particle size for solid-state synthesis of Na3Zr2Si2PO12. This study shows the importance of precursor powder particle size in the microstructure and performance of Na3Zr2Si2PO12 during solid-state synthesis and offers a route to improved predictability and consistency of the manufacturing process

Identifying and Ranking the Factors Affecting Virtuousness in Yazd University-Affiliated Hospitals

Abstract Introduction: Recently virtue has become a topic of serious examination among organizational researchers. In other words, organizations are moving toward virtuous organization. The purpose of this paper is determining and prioritizing the principal factors of a virtuous organization in Yazd University-Affiliated Hospitals in order to put virtues into practice. Methods: The procedure we proposed to reach the research aim consists of three steps. In the first Step, we extracted the effective drivers of virtuous organization from the literature. In the second step, we performed an exploratory factor analysis to identify the principal factors affecting virtuous organization Yazd University-Affiliated Hospitals. In the third step, we prioritized the principal factors. The data used in this research consist of questionnaire responses from the employees of Yazd University-Affiliated Hospitals. A total of 240 questionnaires were sent out and a total of 158 valid responses were received. Results: The factor analysis empirically grouped these drivers into six factors including ethical Culture, Management and leadership, vision, human resource, structure of job and organization and Care for Community. Conclusion: The results of ranking the factors of organizational virtuous showed that for moving toward virtuousness, the factors of ethical Culture, vision and Care for Community should be improvedby promoting ethics (Providing ethical standards for employee’s and manager’s behavior), Corporate Philanthropy, considering virtues in mission and vision etc. in mentioned hospitals

Analysis of the indices of the patients with pulmonary tuberculosis and positive smear test within the territory covered by the West Tehran Health Center during 2004-2008

Tuberculosis is one of the most important heath priorities in the world. One third of the world population is affected by this microbe. However, there is no comprehensive and updated information about the indices of the patients affected by pulmonary tuberculosis in urban centers including Tehran, capital of Iran. The data collected from the records of West Tehran Health Center during 2004 to 2008 about the patients with tuberculosis and positive Smear Test (urban regions 2, 5,6,9,18,21 and 22) were analyzed. The average of 5-year incidence of the disease in the under-study community was 2.6 per 100,000 of the covered population from which 1.5 and 1.1 per 100,000 were associated with males and females respectively. The maximum rate of having pulmonary tuberculosis is seen among the age groups over 60 (42.8) and 16-30 (27.4). In general, the findings of the present study accompanied with the results gained from similar studies can be helpful for monitoring the results of treating patients for facilitating levels. © 2010, INSInet Publication

A geochemical and statistical approach for assessing heavy metal pollution in sediments from the southern Caspian coast

The nearshore marine environment of the Caspian sea is a major repository for toxic metals originating from various sources. Since the persistent toxic metals pose serious health risks this research concentrated on investigating the concentrations and spatial distribution of metals in the nearshore sediments along the Iranian coast of the Caspian sea. Fourteen sampling sites were selected along the coast and approximately 400 g of surficial sediments were obtained. Samples were sieved and three grain size fractions from each sample plus fourteen bulk samples were selected for the analysis of metals. Laboratory analysis of the samples utilized the Cold Acetic protocol, followed by Inductively coupled plasma optical emission spectroscopy. The statistical techniques were used to analyze all obtained data. Linear regression analysis demonstrated that grain size of the sediments was not a major factor controlling the concentrations and spatial distributions of heavy metals. Box and Whisker plots emphasized that metal concentrations were not homogeneously distributed. Discriminant analysis was also proved to be useful in identifying geographic areas where heavy metal concentrations occur along the coast