Bayesian Estimation of the Linear Expenditure System

We argue that the Bayesian approach is appealing to parameter estimation for multi-sector economic models, in that it (i) handles problems with many parameters and little data, (ii) allows for explicit and flexible formulation of prior knowledge on parameter values, and parameter constraints, (iii) provides full account of uncertainty of the estimates, (iv) is based on a single estimation strategy for a wide variety of models. It is an alternative to the more common maximum entropy (minimum cross entropy) techniques. We specify a Bayesian model for the linear expenditure system, and estimate it based on data for Poland, using the open source Stan package. We then extend the basic formulation to allow for changes in tastes, represented by time-varying marginal budget shares

Bayesian Estimation of the Linear Expenditure System

We argue that the Bayesian approach is appealing to parameter estimation for multi-sector economic models, in that it (i) handles problems with many parameters and little data, (ii) allows for explicit and flexible formulation of prior knowledge on parameter values, and parameter constraints, (iii) provides full account of uncertainty of the estimates, (iv) is based on a single estimation strategy for a wide variety of models. It is an alternative to the more common maximum entropy (minimum cross entropy) techniques. We specify a Bayesian model for the linear expenditure system, and estimate it based on data for Poland, using the open source Stan package. We then extend the basic formulation to allow for changes in tastes, represented by time-varying marginal budget shares

Friendly Schengen Borderland Policy on the New Borders of an Enlarged EU and Its Neighbours. CEPS Policy Brief No. 7, November 2001

[From the Introduction]. One often hears the term ‘Europe’ being used interchangeably with ‘European Union’, giving the impression that those countries that are not destined to become members of the EU in the near future are not part of the same continent. Even after the forthcoming accession by 13 new countries, a significant part of Europe will remain outside the ‘EU club’. Enlargement of the European Union will create a new external EU border in the eastern part of the continent. This new border will stretch from the north beginning with the twin town of Narva-Ivangorod on the Estonian-Russian border, through areas of Western Belarus bordering Latvia, Lithuania and Poland, to the Ukrainian borders with Poland, Slovakia, Hungary and all the way south along the Romanian border with Moldova and Ukraine. There will also be the Russian enclave of Kaliningrad, surrounded by the EU countries of Poland and Lithuania. Other new external EU borders will be drawn between Hungary and Slovenia on the one hand and Yugoslavia and Croatia on the other