Living longer, but with more care needs: late-life dependency and the social care crisis

Solving the crisis in social care provision for older people is not just a matter of building more care homes, argues Carol Jagger. She explains the various ways in which dependency has changed compared to 20 years ago, and suggests some of the solutions the government should consider

Projections of dependency and associated social care expenditure for the older population in England to 2038: effect of varying disability progression

Objectives: to assess the effect of recent stalling of life expectancy and various scenarios for disability progression on projections of social care expenditure between 2018 and 2038, and the likelihood of reaching the Ageing Society Grand Challenge mission of five extra healthy, independent years at birth. Design: two linked projections models: the Population Ageing and Care Simulation (PACSim) model and the Care Policy and Evaluation Centre long-term care projections model, updated to include 2018-based population projections. Population: PACSim: about 303,589 individuals aged 35 years and over (a 1% random sample of the England population in 2014) created from three nationally representative longitudinal ageing studies. Main outcome measures: Total social care expenditure (public and private) for older people, and men and women's independent life expectancy at age 65 (IndLE65) under five scenarios of changing disability progression and recovery with and without lower life expectancy. Results: between 2018 and 2038, total care expenditure was projected to increase by 94.1%-1.25% of GDP; men's IndLE65 increasing by 14.7% (range 11.3-16.5%), exceeding the 8% equivalent of the increase in five healthy, independent years at birth, although women's IndLE65 increased by only 4.7% (range 3.2-5.8%). A 10% reduction in disability progression and increase in recovery resulted in the lowest increase in total care expenditure and increases in both men's and women's IndLE65 exceeding 8%. Conclusions: interventions that slow down disability progression, and improve recovery, could significantly reduce social care expenditure and meet government targets for increases in healthy, independent years

Anticipated survival and health behaviours in older English adults: cross sectional and longitudinal analysis of the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing.

BACKGROUND: Individuals may make a rational decision not to engage in healthy behaviours based on their assessment of the benefits of such behaviours to them, compared to other uncontrollable threats to their health. Anticipated survival is one marker of perceived uncontrollable threats to health. We hypothesised that greater anticipated survival: a) is cross-sectionally associated with healthier patterns of behaviours; b) increases the probability that behaviours will be healthier at follow up than at baseline; and c) decreases the probability that behaviours will be 'less healthy' at follow than at baseline. METHODS: Data from waves 1 and 5 of the English Longitudinal Survey of Ageing provided 8 years of follow up. Perceptions of uncontrollable threats to health at baseline were measured using anticipated survival. Health behaviours considered were self-reported cigarette smoking, physical activity level, and frequency of alcohol consumption. A wide range of socio-economic, demographic, and health variables were adjusted for. RESULTS: Greater anticipated survival was cross-sectionally associated with lower likelihood of smoking, and higher physical activity levels, but was not associated with alcohol consumption. Lower anticipated survival was associated with decreased probability of adopting healthier patterns of physical activity, and increased probability of becoming a smoker at follow up. There were no associations between anticipated survival and change in alcohol consumption. CONCLUSIONS: Our hypotheses were partially confirmed, though associations were inconsistent across behaviours and absent for alcohol consumption. Individual assessments of uncontrollable threats to health may be an important determinant of smoking and physical activity.This work was funded by a British Medical Association Strutt Harper Award (2011). JA is funded by the Centre for Diet and Activity Research (CEDAR), a UKCRC Public Health Research Centre of Excellence. Funding from the British Heart Foundation, Cancer Research UK, Economic and Social Research Council, Medical Research Council, the National Institute for Health Research, and the Wellcome Trust, under the auspices of the UK Clinical Research Collaboration, is gratefully acknowledged. The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.This is the final published version of the article. It was originally published in PLOS ONE (Adams J, Stamp E, Nettle D, Milne EMG, Jagger C, PLoS ONE 2015, 10(3): e0118782. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0118782). The final version is available at http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.011878

Serum osmolarity and haematocrit do not modify the association between the impedance index (Ht2/Z) and total body water in the very old: The Newcastle 85+ Study

Bioelectrical impedance is a non-invasive technique for the assessment of body composition; however, information on its accuracy in the very old (80+ years) is limited. We investigated whether the association between the impedance index and total body water (TBW) was modified by hydration status as assessed by haematocrit and serum osmolarity. This was a cross-sectional analysis of baseline data from the Newcastle 85+ Cohort Study. Anthropometric measurements [weight, height (Ht)] were taken and body mass index (BMI) calculated. Leg-to-leg bioimpedance was used to measure the impedance value (Z) and to estimate fat mass, fat free mass and TBW. The impedance index (Ht2/Z) was calculated. Blood haematocrit, haemoglobin, glucose, sodium, potassium, urea and creatinine concentrations were measured. Serum osmolarity was calculated using a validated prediction equation. 677 men and women aged 85 years were included. The average BMI of the population was 24.3±4.2kg/m2 and the prevalence of overweight and obesity was 32.6% and 9.5%, respectively. The impedance index was significantly associated with TBW in both men (n=274, r=0.76, p<0.001) and women (n=403, r=0.96, p<0.001); in regression models, the impedance index remained associated with TBW after adjustment for height, weight and gender, and further adjustment for serum osmolarity and haematocrit. The impedance index values increased with BMI and the relationship was not modified by hydration status in women (p=0.69) and only marginally in men (p=0.02). The association between the impedance index and TBW was not modified by hydration status, which may support the utilisation of leg-to-leg bioimpedance for the assessment of body composition in the very old

Who Lives Where and Does It Matter? Changes in the Health Profiles of Older People Living in Long Term Care and the Community over Two Decades in a High Income Country.

BACKGROUND: There have been fundamental shifts in the attitude towards, access to and nature of long term care in high income countries. The proportion and profile of the older population living in such settings varies according to social, cultural, and economic characteristics as well as governmental policies. Changes in the profiles of people in different settings are important for policy makers and care providers. Although details will differ, how change occurs across time is important to all, including lower and middle income countries developing policies themselves. Here change is examined across two decades in England. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Using the two Cognitive Function and Ageing Studies (CFAS I: 77% response, CFAS II: 56% response), two population based studies of older people carried out in the same areas conducted two decades apart, the study diagnosis of dementia using the Automated Geriatric Examination for Computer Assisted Taxonomy, health and wellbeing were examined, focusing on long term care. The proportion of individuals with three or more health conditions increased for everyone living in long term care between CFAS I (47.6%, 95% CI: 42.3-53.1) and CFAS II (62.7%, 95% CI: 54.8-70.0) and was consistently higher in those without dementia compared to those with dementia in both studies. Functional impairment measured by activities of daily living increased in assisted living facilities from 48% (95% CI: 44%-52%) to 67% (95% CI: 62%-71%). CONCLUSIONS: Health profiles of residents in long term care have changed dramatically over time. Dementia prevalence and reporting multiple health conditions have increased. Receiving care in the community puts pressure on unpaid carers and formal services; these results have implications for policies about supporting people at home as well as for service provision within long term care including quality of care, health management, cost, and the development of a skilled, caring, and informed workforce.CFAS II has been funded through a grant from the Medical Research Council (grant number G0601022). CFAS I was also funded through the Medical Research Council (grant number G9901400).This is the final version of the article. It first appeared from PLOS at http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0161705

The contribution of multiple long-term conditions to widening inequalities in disability-free life expectancy over two decades: Longitudinal analysis of two cohorts using the Cognitive Function and Ageing Studies.

BACKGROUND: : Disability-free life expectancy (DFLE) inequalities by socioeconomic deprivation are widening, alongside rising prevalence of multiple long-term conditions (MLTCs). We use longitudinal data to assess whether MLTCs contribute to the widening DFLE inequalities by socioeconomic deprivation. METHODS: : The Cognitive Function and Ageing Studies (CFAS I and II) are large population-based studies of those ≥65 years, conducted in three areas in England. Baseline occurred in 1991 (CFAS I, n=7635) and 2011 (CFAS II, n=7762) with two-year follow-up. We defined disability as difficulty in activities of daily living, MLTCs as the presence of at least two of nine health conditions, and socioeconomic deprivation by area-level deprivation tertiles. DFLE and transitions between disability states and death were estimated from multistate models. FINDINGS: : For people with MLTCs, inequalities in DFLE at age 65 between the most and least affluent widened to around 2.5 years (men:2.4 years, 95% confidence interval (95%CI) 0.4-4.4; women:2.6 years, 95%CI 0.7-4.5) by 2011. Incident disability reduced for the most affluent women (Relative Risk Ratio (RRR):0.6, 95%CI 0.4-0.9), and mortality with disability reduced for least affluent men (RRR:0.6, 95%CI 0.5-0.8). MLTCs prevalence increased only for least affluent men (1991: 58.8%, 2011: 66.9%) and women (1991: 60.9%, 2011: 69.1%). However, DFLE inequalities were as large in people without MLTCs (men:2.4 years, 95%CI 0.3-4.5; women:3.1 years, 95% CI 0.8-5.4). INTERPRETATION: : Widening DFLE inequalities were not solely due to MLTCs. Reduced disability incidence with MLTCs is possible but was only achieved in the most affluent

Regional differences in multidimensional aspects of health: findings from the MRC cognitive function and ageing study.

BACKGROUND: Differences in mortality and health experience across regions are well recognised and UK government policy aims to address this inequality. Methods combining life expectancy and health have concentrated on specific areas, such as self-perceived health and dementia. Few have looked within country or across different areas of health. Self-perceived health, self-perceived functional impairment and cognitive impairment are linked closely to survival, as well as quality of life. This paper aims to describe regional differences in healthy life expectancy using a variety of states of health and wellbeing within the MRC Cognitive Function and Ageing Study (MRC CFAS). METHODS: MRC CFAS is a population based study of health in 13,009 individuals aged 65 years and above in five centres using identical study methodology. The interviews included self-perceived health and measures of functional and cognitive impairment. Sullivan's method was used to combine prevalence rates for cognitive and functional impairment and life expectancy to produce expectation of life in various health states. RESULTS: The prevalence of both cognitive and functional impairment increases with age and was higher in women than men, with marked centre variation in functional impairment (Newcastle and Gwynedd highest impairment). Newcastle had the shortest life expectancy of all the sites, Cambridgeshire and Oxford the longest. Centre differences in self-perceived health tended to mimic differences in life expectancy but this did not hold for cognitive or functional impairment. CONCLUSION: Self-perceived health does not show marked variation with age or sex, but does across centre even after adjustment for impairment burden. There is considerable centre variation in self-reported functional impairment but not cognitive impairment. Only variation in self-perceived health relates to the ranking of life expectancy. These data confirm that quite considerable differences in life experience exist across regions of the UK beyond basic life expectancy.RIGHTS : This article is licensed under the BioMed Central licence at http://www.biomedcentral.com/about/license which is similar to the 'Creative Commons Attribution Licence'. In brief you may : copy, distribute, and display the work; make derivative works; or make commercial use of the work - under the following conditions: the original author must be given credit; for any reuse or distribution, it must be made clear to others what the license terms of this work are

Is late-life dependency increasing or not? A comparison of the Cognitive Function and Ageing Studies (CFAS).

BACKGROUND: Little is known about how the proportions of dependency states have changed between generational cohorts of older people. We aimed to estimate years lived in different dependency states at age 65 years in 1991 and 2011, and new projections of future demand for care. METHODS: In this population-based study, we compared two Cognitive Function and Ageing Studies (CFAS I and CFAS II) of older people (aged ≥65 years) who were permanently registered with a general practice in three defined geographical areas (Cambridgeshire, Newcastle, and Nottingham; UK). These studies were done two decades apart (1991 and 2011). General practices provided lists of individuals to be contacted and were asked to exclude those who had died or might die over the next month. Baseline interviews were done in the community and care homes. Participants were stratified by age, and interviews occurred only after written informed consent was obtained. Information collected included basic sociodemographics, cognitive status, urinary incontinence, and self-reported ability to do activities of daily living. CFAS I was assigned as the 1991 cohort and CFAS II as the 2011 cohort, and both studies provided prevalence estimates of dependency in four states: high dependency (24-h care), medium dependency (daily care), low dependency (less than daily), and independent. Years in each dependency state were calculated by Sullivan's method. To project future demands for social care, the proportions in each dependency state (by age group and sex) were applied to the 2014 UK [corrected] population projections. FINDINGS: Between 1991 and 2011, there were significant increases in years lived from age 65 years with low dependency (1·7 years [95% CI 1·0-2·4] for men and 2·4 years [1·8-3·1] for women) and increases with high dependency (0·9 years [0·2-1·7] for men and 1·3 years [0·5-2·1] for women). The majority of men's extra years of life were spent independent (36·3%) or with low dependency (36·3%) whereas for women the majority were spent with low dependency (58·0%), and only 4·8% were independent. There were substantial reductions in the proportions with medium and high dependency who lived in care homes, although, if these dependency and care home proportions remain constant in the future, further population ageing will require an extra 71 215 care home places by 2025. INTERPRETATION: On average older men now spend 2·4 years and women 3·0 years with substantial care needs, and most will live in the community. These findings have considerable implications for families of older people who provide the majority of unpaid care, but the findings also provide valuable new information for governments and care providers planning the resources and funding required for the care of their future ageing populations. FUNDING: Medical Research Council (G9901400) and (G06010220), with support from the National Institute for Health Research Comprehensive Local research networks in West Anglia and Trent, UK, and Neurodegenerative Disease Research Network in Newcastle, UK.FEM receives funding from the Medical Research Council (MC U105292687)