Le régime du double marché des changes sous les Tropiques : une analyse théorique

Dans cet article, nous présentons un modèle de double marché des changes. La principale innovation de notre étude est l’inclusion de transactions croisées, ou de liaisons légales ou illégales entre les deux compartiments du marché des changes. L’existence de liaisons entre les marchés complique sensiblement le fonctionnement d’une telle économie car les résidents nationaux peuvent acquérir des actifs financiers étrangers alors qu’ils ne le peuvent pas lorsque les deux compartiments du marché sont parfaitement cloisonnés. En faisant la distinction entre des liaisons « à l’importation » ou « à l’exportation », nous analysons dans l’article l’impact de perturbations exogènes sur le taux d’intérêt, le niveau des prix et le taux de change financier.In this paper we present a model of a dual exchange-rate system. The innovation of the model is the formal inclusion of cross market transactions, or "leakages" between the two markets. This greatly complicates the workings of the economy with dual rates because domestic residents can change the size of their holdings of foreign assets. This is not the case with the fully insulated dual rate system. We draw the distinction between "import" and "export leakage" and we show the different impacts of external disturbances on domestic interest rate, price level and free exchange rate under the two types of leakages

Le régime du double marché des changes sous les Tropiques : une analyse théorique

In this paper we present a model of a dual exchange-rate system. The innovation of the model is the formal inclusion of cross market transactions, or "leakages" between the two markets. This greatly complicates the workings of the economy with dual rates because domestic residents can change the size of their holdings of foreign assets. This is not the case with the fully insulated dual rate system. We draw the distinction between "import" and "export leakage" and we show the different impacts of external disturbances on domestic interest rate, price level and free exchange rate under the two types of leakages. Dans cet article, nous présentons un modèle de double marché des changes. La principale innovation de notre étude est l’inclusion de transactions croisées, ou de liaisons légales ou illégales entre les deux compartiments du marché des changes. L’existence de liaisons entre les marchés complique sensiblement le fonctionnement d’une telle économie car les résidents nationaux peuvent acquérir des actifs financiers étrangers alors qu’ils ne le peuvent pas lorsque les deux compartiments du marché sont parfaitement cloisonnés. En faisant la distinction entre des liaisons « à l’importation » ou « à l’exportation », nous analysons dans l’article l’impact de perturbations exogènes sur le taux d’intérêt, le niveau des prix et le taux de change financier.

Growth, debt, and sovereign risk in a small, open economy

The continuing debt crisis that many developing countries have faced in the current decade has underscored the need to understand the relationships between debt accumulation and growth, as well as the need to develop policy approaches that foster adjustment in the external account while maintaining the growth of output. The purpose of this paper is to develop a macroeconomic model for a small open developing economy that borrows abroad. This model will assist in studying the dynamic interaction between debt and growth, as well as the impact of various policies and exogenous shocks on the rate of capital accumulation, the current account and debt. From this analysis, the authors make the following conclusions. An upward shift in the supply of debt leads to a long run decline in external debt, a higher domestic interest rate, less capital stock, and a reduced trade surplus. An increase in the marginal cost of debt may or may not lower long run external debt as well. An increase in productivity raises the long run stock of capital but leaves the level of external debt and the interest rate unchanged in the long run. Finally, fiscal expansion has almost no effect in either the short run or the long run.Economic Theory&Research,Environmental Economics&Policies,Strategic Debt Management,Banks&Banking Reform,Financial Intermediation

Speculative Attacks and Models of Balance-of-Payments Crises

This paper reviews recent developments in the theoretical and empirical analysis of balance-of-payments crises. A simple analytical model highlighting the process leading to such crises is first developed. The basic framework is then extended to deal with a variety of issues, such as: alternative post-collapse regimes, uncertainty, real sector effects, external borrowing and capital controls, imperfect asset substitutability, sticky prices, and endogenous policy switches. Empirical evidence on the collapse of exchange rate regimes is also examined, and the major implications of the analysis for macroeconomic policy are discussed.

INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION THEORY: PERSPECTIVES ACROSS THE SOCIAL SCIENCES

INTRODUCTION: While there have been ebbs and flows of international migration in the past, both cross-border movements of persons and proportions of immigrant populations are currently close to historic highs.1 Notably, these phenomena are not limited to traditional countries of inbound immigration in the New World, but include countries spanning all continents and even countries such as Japan that have been traditionally restrictionist in admitting immigrants. Not surprisingly, scholars in several disciplines have generated a sharply growing volume of writing in international migration in recent years, particularly since the 1990s.Social scientists do not have a shared paradigm for immigration, but instead competing, diverse methodologies and issues of interest. Some disciplines such as sociology are of much earlier vintage than relative newcomers such as public choice. Except in some cases such as sociology and anthropology, there are still deep canyons across the disciplines. Nevertheless, most disciplines, even those that have joined the debate recently have acquired the quantitative tools that have long been staples in fields such as economics

Migration and Trade Policies: Symmetry or Paradox?

In this paper, I discuss the relationship between trade and migration policies on a number of levels and drawn upon several disciplines. Contrary to assumptions often made by writers and scholars (including those in the law) increased trade liberalization does not have predictable effects upon international migration which is a far broader and more complex phenomenon. Nations should (as has the United States) pursue independent policies with respect to international trade and migration. There need not be any hand wringing over the missed opportunities for migration reform in the US during trade accords such as the NAFTA because of any necessary linkage between trade and migration. Some of the questions addressed in this paper include the following: What is the relationship between international migration and trade? Is liberalized trade likely to create or diminish incentives for additional migration and conversely? Have policy makers and governments acted as though trade and migration policies were really different sides of the same economic coin? Are governments in more democratic societies more likely to be pro-immigration and pro-trade or conversely compared with less liberal democracies? Are the preferences (to the extent that meaningful franchise exists) of voters between trade and migration symmetrical, i.e. does being pro-trade normally imply that the voter in question is also likely to be pro-migration? What has been the impact of interest groups or coalitions of voters on articulated trade and migration policies historically