When does charisma matter for top-level leaders? Effect of attributional ambiguity

One stream of leadership theory suggests leaders are evaluated via inferential observer processes that compare the fit of the target to a prototype of an ideal (charismatic) leader. Attributional theories of leadership suggest that evaluations depend on knowledge of past organizational performance, which is attributed to the leader's skills. We develop a novel theory showing how inferential and attributional processes simultaneously explain top-level leader evaluation and ultimately leader retention and selection. We argue that observers will mostly rely on attributional mechanisms when performance signals clearly indicate good or poor performance outcomes. However, under conditions of attributional ambiguity (i.e., when performance signals are unclear), observers will mostly rely on inferential processes. In Study 1 we tested our theory in an unconventional context-the U.S. presidential election-and found that the two processes, due to the leader's charisma and country economic performance, interact in predicting whether a leader is selected. Using a business context and an experimental design, in Study 2 we show that CEO charisma and firm performance interact in predicting leader retention, confirming the results we found in Study 1. Our results suggest that this phenomenon is quite general and can apply to various performance domains

Causality and endogeneity: Problems and solutions

Most leadership and management researchers ignore one key design and estimation problem rendering parameter estimates uninterpretable: Endogeneity. We discuss the problem of endogeneity in depth and explain conditions that engender it using examples grounded in the leadership literature. We show how consistent causal estimates can be derived from the randomized experiment, where endogeneity is eliminated by experimental design. We then review the reasons why estimates may become biased (i.e., inconsistent) in non-experimental designs and present a number of useful remedies for examining causal relations with non-experimental data. We write in intuitive terms using nontechnical language to make this chapter accessible to a large audience

Charisma: An ill-defined and ill-measured gift

We take historical stock of charisma, tracing its origins and how it has been conceptualized in the sociological and organizational sciences literatures. Although charisma has been intensely studied, the concept is still not well understood and much of the research undertaken cannot inform policy. We show that the major obstacles to advancing our understanding of charisma have included issues with its definition, its confusion with transformational leadership, the use of questionnaire measures, and that it has not been studied using correctly-specified causal models. To help spawn a new genre of research in charisma, we use signaling theory to provide a general definition of charisma, and make suggestions about how charisma should be conceptualized, operationalized, and modeled. We also describe trends and patterns in articles we reviewed, using co-citation as well as bibliometric analyses, and discuss the practical implications of our findings

Can Charisma Be Taught? Tests of Two Interventions

We tested whether we could teach individuals to behave more charismatically, andwhether changes in charisma affected leader outcomes. In Study 1, a mixed-design fieldexperiment, we randomly assigned 34 middle-level managers to a control or anexperimental group. Three months later, we reassessed the managers using theircoworker ratings (Time 1 raters = 343; Time 2 raters = 321). In Study 2, a within-subjectslaboratory experiment, we videotaped 41 MBA participants giving a speech. We thentaught them how to behave more charismatically, and they redelivered the speech6 weeks later. Independent assessors (n = 135) rated the speeches. Results from thestudies indicated that the training had significant effects on ratings of leader charisma(mean D = .62) and that charisma had significant effects on ratings of leaderprototypicality and emergence...............................................................................................................................

Search for Extended Sources of Neutrino Emission in the Galactic Plane with IceCube

The Galactic plane, harboring a diffuse neutrino flux, is a particularly interesting target to study potential cosmic-ray acceleration sites. Recent gamma-ray observations by HAWC and LHAASO have presented evidence for multiple Galactic sources that exhibit a spatially extended morphology and have energy spectra continuing beyond 100 TeV. A fraction of such emission could be produced by interactions of accelerated hadronic cosmic rays, resulting in an excess of high-energy neutrinos clustered near these regions. Using 10 years of IceCube data comprising track-like events that originate from charged-current muon neutrino interactions, we perform a dedicated search for extended neutrino sources in the Galaxy. We find no evidence for time-integrated neutrino emission from the potential extended sources studied in the Galactic plane. The most significant location, at 2.6$\sigma$ post-trials, is a 1.7$^\circ$ sized region coincident with the unidentified TeV gamma-ray source 3HWC J1951+266. We provide strong constraints on hadronic emission from several regions in the Galaxy.Comment: 13 pages, 4 figures, 5 tables including an appendix. Accepted for publication in Astrophysical Journa

Measurement of atmospheric neutrino mixing with improved IceCube DeepCore calibration and data processing

We describe a new data sample of IceCube DeepCore and report on the latest measurement of atmospheric neutrino oscillations obtained with data recorded between 2011–2019. The sample includes significant improvements in data calibration, detector simulation, and data processing, and the analysis benefits from a sophisticated treatment of systematic uncertainties, with significantly greater level of detail since our last study. By measuring the relative fluxes of neutrino flavors as a function of their reconstructed energies and arrival directions we constrain the atmospheric neutrino mixing parameters to be sin2θ23=0.51±0.05 and Δm232=2.41±0.07×10−3  eV2, assuming a normal mass ordering. The errors include both statistical and systematic uncertainties. The resulting 40% reduction in the error of both parameters with respect to our previous result makes this the most precise measurement of oscillation parameters using atmospheric neutrinos. Our results are also compatible and complementary to those obtained using neutrino beams from accelerators, which are obtained at lower neutrino energies and are subject to different sources of uncertainties

Measurement of Atmospheric Neutrino Mixing with Improved IceCube DeepCore Calibration and Data Processing

We describe a new data sample of IceCube DeepCore and report on the latest measurement of atmospheric neutrino oscillations obtained with data recorded between 2011-2019. The sample includes significant improvements in data calibration, detector simulation, and data processing, and the analysis benefits from a detailed treatment of systematic uncertainties, with significantly higher level of detail since our last study. By measuring the relative fluxes of neutrino flavors as a function of their reconstructed energies and arrival directions we constrain the atmospheric neutrino mixing parameters to be $\sin^2\theta_{23} = 0.51\pm 0.05$ and $\Delta m^2_{32} = 2.41\pm0.07\times 10^{-3}\mathrm{eV}^2$, assuming a normal mass ordering. The resulting 40\% reduction in the error of both parameters with respect to our previous result makes this the most precise measurement of oscillation parameters using atmospheric neutrinos. Our results are also compatible and complementary to those obtained using neutrino beams from accelerators, which are obtained at lower neutrino energies and are subject to different sources of uncertainties

IceCat-1: The IceCube Event Catalog of Alert Tracks

We present a catalog of likely astrophysical neutrino track-like events from the IceCube Neutrino Observatory. IceCube began reporting likely astrophysical neutrinos in 2016, and this system was updated in 2019. The catalog presented here includes events that were reported in real time since 2019, as well as events identified in archival data samples starting from 2011. We report 275 neutrino events from two selection channels as the first entries in the catalog, the IceCube Event Catalog of Alert Tracks, which will see ongoing extensions with additional alerts. The Gold and Bronze alert channels respectively provide neutrino candidates with a 50% and 30% probability of being astrophysical, on average assuming an astrophysical neutrino power-law energy spectral index of 2.19. For each neutrino alert, we provide the reconstructed energy, direction, false-alarm rate, probability of being astrophysical in origin, and likelihood contours describing the spatial uncertainty in the alert\u27s reconstructed location. We also investigate a directional correlation of these neutrino events with gamma-ray and X-ray catalogs, including 4FGL, 3HWC, TeVCat, and Swift-BAT

Constraining High-energy Neutrino Emission from Supernovae with IceCube

Core-collapse supernovae are a promising potential high-energy neutrino source class. We test for correlation between seven years of IceCube neutrino data and a catalog containing more than 1000 core-collapse supernovae of types IIn and IIP and a sample of stripped-envelope supernovae. We search both for neutrino emission from individual supernovae, and for combined emission from the whole supernova sample through a stacking analysis. No significant spatial or temporal correlation of neutrinos with the cataloged supernovae was found. The overall deviation of all tested scenarios from the background expectation yields a p-value of 93% which is fully compatible with background. The derived upper limits on the total energy emitted in neutrinos are 1.7×10$^{48}$ erg for stripped-envelope supernovae, 2.8×10$^{48}$ erg for type IIP, and 1.3×10$^{49}$ erg for type IIn SNe, the latter disfavouring models with optimistic assumptions for neutrino production in interacting supernovae. We conclude that strippe-envelope supernovae and supernovae of type IIn do not contribute more than 14.6% and 33.9% respectively to the diffuse neutrino flux in the energy range of about 10$^3$−10$^5$ GeV, assuming that the neutrino energy spectrum follows a power-law with an index of −2.5. Under the same assumption, we can only constrain the contribution of type IIP SNe to no more than 59.9%. Thus core-collapse supernovae of types IIn and stripped-envelope supernovae can both be ruled out as the dominant source of the diffuse neutrino flux under the given assumptions