Estimating the NIH Efficient Frontier

Background: The National Institutes of Health (NIH) is among the world’s largest investors in biomedical research, with a mandate to: “…lengthen life, and reduce the burdens of illness and disability.” Its funding decisions have been criticized as insufficiently focused on disease burden. We hypothesize that modern portfolio theory can create a closer link between basic research and outcome, and offer insight into basic-science related improvements in public health. We propose portfolio theory as a systematic framework for making biomedical funding allocation decisions–one that is directly tied to the risk/reward trade-off of burden-of-disease outcomes. Methods and Findings: Using data from 1965 to 2007, we provide estimates of the NIH “efficient frontier”, the set of funding allocations across 7 groups of disease-oriented NIH institutes that yield the greatest expected return on investment for a given level of risk, where return on investment is measured by subsequent impact on U.S. years of life lost (YLL). The results suggest that NIH may be actively managing its research risk, given that the volatility of its current allocation is 17% less than that of an equal-allocation portfolio with similar expected returns. The estimated efficient frontier suggests that further improvements in expected return (89% to 119% vs. current) or reduction in risk (22% to 35% vs. current) are available holding risk or expected return, respectively, constant, and that 28% to 89% greater decrease in average years-of-life-lost per unit risk may be achievable. However, these results also reflect the imprecision of YLL as a measure of disease burden, the noisy statistical link between basic research and YLL, and other known limitations of portfolio theory itself. Conclusions: Our analysis is intended to serve as a proof-of-concept and starting point for applying quantitative methods to allocating biomedical research funding that are objective, systematic, transparent, repeatable, and expressly designed to reduce the burden of disease. By approaching funding decisions in a more analytical fashion, it may be possible to improve their ultimate outcomes while reducing unintended consequences

Adherence to yoga and exercise interventions in a 6-month clinical trial

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>To determine factors that predict adherence to a mind-body intervention in a randomized trial.</p> <p>Design</p> <p>We analyzed adherence data from a 3-arm trial involving 135 generally healthy seniors 65–85 years of age randomized to a 6-month intervention consisting of: an Iyengar yoga class with home practice, an exercise class with home practice, or a wait-list control group. Outcome measures included cognitive function, mood, fatigue, anxiety, health-related quality of life, and physical measures. Adherence to the intervention was obtained by class attendance and biweekly home practice logs.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The drop-out rate was 13%. Among the completers of the two active interventions, average yoga class attendance was 77% and home practice occurred 64% of all days. Average exercise class attendance was 69% and home exercise occurred 54% of all days. There were no clear effects of adherence on the significant study outcomes (quality of life and physical measures). Class attendance was significantly correlated with baseline measures of depression, fatigue, and physical components of health-related quality of life. Significant differences in baseline measures were also found between study completers and drop-outs in the active interventions. Adherence was not related to age, gender, or education level.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Healthy seniors have good attendance at classes with a physically active intervention. Home practice takes place over half of the time. Decreased adherence to a potentially beneficial intervention has the potential to decrease the effect of the intervention in a clinical trial because subjects who might sustain the greatest benefit will receive a lower dose of the intervention and subjects with higher adherence rates may be functioning closer to maximum ability before the intervention. Strategies to maximize adherence among subjects at greater risk for low adherence will be important for future trials, especially complementary treatments requiring greater effort than simple pill-taking.</p

Diamondites: evidence for a distinct tectono-thermal diamond-forming event beneath the Kaapvaal craton

The petrogenesis and relationship of diamondite to well-studied monocrystalline and fibrous diamonds are poorly understood yet would potentially reveal new aspects of how diamond-forming fluids are transported through the lithosphere and equilibrate with surrounding silicates. Of 22 silicate- and oxide-bearing diamondites investigated, most yielded garnet intergrowths (n = 15) with major element geochemistry (i.e. Ca–Cr) classifying these samples as low-Ca websteritic or eclogitic. The garnet REE patterns fit an equilibrium model suggesting the diamond-forming fluid shares an affinity with high-density fluids (HDF) observed in fibrous diamonds, specifically on the join between the saline–carbonate end-members. The δ13C values for the diamonds range from − 5.27 to − 22.48‰ (V-PDB) with δ18O values for websteritic garnets ranging from + 7.6 to + 5.9‰ (V-SMOW). The combined C–O stable isotope data support a model for a hydrothermally altered and organic carbon-bearing subducted crustal source(s) for the diamond- and garnet-forming media. The nitrogen aggregation states of the diamonds require that diamondite-formation event(s) pre-dates fibrous diamond-formation and post-dates most of the gem monocrystalline diamond-formation events at Orapa. The modelled fluid compositions responsible for the precipitation of diamondites match the fluid-poor and fluid-rich (fibrous) monocrystalline diamonds, where all grow from HDFs within the saline-silicic-carbonatitic ternary system. However, while the nature of the parental fluid(s) share a common lithophile element geochemical affinity, the origin(s) of the saline, silicic, and/or carbonatitic components of these HDFs do not always share a common origin. Therefore, it is wholly conceivable that the diamondites are evidence of a distinct and temporally unconstrained tectono-thermal diamond-forming event beneath the Kaapvaal craton

Childhood exposure due to the Chernobyl accident and thyroid cancer risk in contaminated areas of Belarus and Russia

The thyroid dose due to 131I releases during the Chernobyl accident was reconstructed for children and adolescents in two cities and 2122 settlements in Belarus, and in one city and 607 settlements in the Bryansk district of the Russian Federation. In this area, which covers the two high contamination spots in the two countries following the accident, data on thyroid cancer incidence during the period 1991-1995 were analysed in the light of possible increased thyroid surveillance. Two methods of risk analysis were applied: Poisson regression with results for the single settlements and Monte Carlo (MC) calculations for results in larger areas or sub-populations. Best estimates of both methods agreed well. Poisson regression estimates of 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were considerably smaller than the MC results, which allow for extra-Poisson uncertainties due to reconstructed doses and the background thyroid cancer incidence. The excess absolute risk per unit thyroid dose (EARPD) for the birth cohort 1971-1985 by the MC analysis was 2.1 (95% CI 1.0-4.5) cases per 10(4) person-year Gy. The point estimate is lower by a factor of two than that observed in a pooled study of thyroid cancer risk after external exposures. The excess relative risk per unit thyroid dose was 23 (95% CI 8.6-82) Gy(-1). No significant differences between countries or cities and rural areas were found. In the lowest dose group of the settlements with an average thyroid dose of 0.05 Gy the risk was statistically significantly elevated. Dependencies of risks on age-at-exposure and on gender are consistent with findings after external exposures

Rotational IMRT techniques compared to fixed gantry IMRT and Tomotherapy: multi-institutional planning study for head-and-neck cases

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Recent developments enable to deliver rotational IMRT with standard C-arm gantry based linear accelerators. This upcoming treatment technique was benchmarked in a multi-center treatment planning study against static gantry IMRT and rotational IMRT based on a ring gantry for a complex parotid gland sparing head-and-neck technique.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Treatment plans were created for 10 patients with head-and-neck tumours (oropharynx, hypopharynx, larynx) using the following treatment planning systems (TPS) for rotational IMRT: Monaco (ELEKTA VMAT solution), Eclipse (Varian RapidArc solution) and HiArt for the helical tomotherapy (Tomotherapy). Planning of static gantry IMRT was performed with KonRad, Pinnacle and Panther DAO based on step&shoot IMRT delivery and Eclipse for sliding window IMRT. The prescribed doses for the high dose PTVs were 65.1Gy or 60.9Gy and for the low dose PTVs 55.8Gy or 52.5Gy dependend on resection status. Plan evaluation was based on target coverage, conformity and homogeneity, DVHs of OARs and the volume of normal tissue receiving more than 5Gy (V_5Gy). Additionally, the cumulative monitor units (MUs) and treatment times of the different technologies were compared. All evaluation parameters were averaged over all 10 patients for each technique and planning modality.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Depending on IMRT technique and TPS, the mean CI values of all patients ranged from 1.17 to 2.82; and mean HI values varied from 0.05 to 0.10. The mean values of the median doses of the spared parotid were 26.5Gy for RapidArc and 23Gy for VMAT, 14.1Gy for Tomo. For fixed gantry techniques 21Gy was achieved for step&shoot+KonRad, 17.0Gy for step&shoot+Panther DAO, 23.3Gy for step&shoot+Pinnacle and 18.6Gy for sliding window.</p> <p>V_5Gyvalues were lowest for the sliding window IMRT technique (3499 ccm) and largest for RapidArc (5480 ccm). The lowest mean MU value of 408 was achieved by Panther DAO, compared to 1140 for sliding window IMRT.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>All IMRT delivery technologies with their associated TPS provide plans with satisfying target coverage while at the same time respecting the defined OAR criteria. Sliding window IMRT, RapidArc and Tomo techniques resulted in better target dose homogeneity compared to VMAT and step&shoot IMRT. Rotational IMRT based on C-arm linacs and Tomotherapy seem to be advantageous with respect to OAR sparing and treatment delivery efficiency, at the cost of higher dose delivered to normal tissues. The overall treatment plan quality using Tomo seems to be better than the other TPS technology combinations.</p

Downsizing a human inflammatory protein to a small molecule with equal potency and functionality

A significant challenge in chemistry is to rationally reproduce the functional potency of a protein in a small molecule, which is cheaper to manufacture, non-immunogenic, and also both stable and bioavailable. Synthetic peptides corresponding to small bioactive protein surfaces do not form stable structures in water and do not exhibit the functional potencies of proteins. Here we describe a novel approach to growing small molecules with protein-like potencies from a functionally important amino acid of a protein. A 77-residue human inflammatory protein (complement C3a) important in innate immunity is rationally transformed to equipotent small molecules, using peptide surrogates that incorporate a turn-inducing heterocycle with correctly positioned hydrogen-bond-accepting atoms. Small molecule agonists (molecular weigh

Index Cohesive Force Analysis Reveals That the US Market Became Prone to Systemic Collapses Since 2002

BACKGROUND: The 2007-2009 financial crisis, and its fallout, has strongly emphasized the need to define new ways and measures to study and assess the stock market dynamics. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: The S&P500 dynamics during 4/1999-4/2010 is investigated in terms of the index cohesive force (ICF--the balance between the stock correlations and the partial correlations after subtraction of the index contribution), and the Eigenvalue entropy of the stock correlation matrices. We found a rapid market transition at the end of 2001 from a flexible state of low ICF into a stiff (nonflexible) state of high ICF that is prone to market systemic collapses. The stiff state is also marked by strong effect of the market index on the stock-stock correlations as well as bursts of high stock correlations reminiscence of epileptic brain activity. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: The market dynamical states, stability and transition between economic states was studies using new quantitative measures. Doing so shed new light on the origin and nature of the current crisis. The new approach is likely to be applicable to other classes of complex systems from gene networks to the human brain

Antigenic Complementarity in the Origins of Autoimmunity: A General Theory Illustrated With a Case Study of Idiopathic Thrombocytopenia Purpura

We describe a novel, testable theory of autoimmunity, outline novel predictions made by the theory, and illustrate its application to unravelling the possible causes of idiopathic thrombocytopenia purpura (ITP). Pairs of stereochemically complementary antigens induce complementary immune responses (antibody or T-cell) that create loss of regulation and civil war within the immune system itself. Antibodies attack antibodies creating circulating immune complexes; T-cells attack T-cells creating perivascular cuffing. This immunological civil war abrogates the self-nonself distinction. If at least one of the complementary antigens mimics a self antigen, then this unregulated immune response will target host tissues as well. Data demonstrating that complementary antigens are found in some animal models of autoimmunity and may be present in various human diseases, especially ITP, are reviewed. Specific mechanisms for preventing autoimmunity or suppressing existing autoimmunity are derived from the theory, and critical tests proposed. Finally, we argue that Koch's postulates are inadequate for establishing disease causation for multiple-antigen diseases and discuss the possibility that current research has failed to elucidate the causes of human autoimmune diseases because we are using the wrong criteria

Frequent Arousal from Hibernation Linked to Severity of Infection and Mortality in Bats with White-Nose Syndrome

White-nose syndrome (WNS), an emerging infectious disease that has killed over 5.5 million hibernating bats, is named for the causative agent, a white fungus (Geomyces destructans (Gd)) that invades the skin of torpid bats. During hibernation, arousals to warm (euthermic) body temperatures are normal but deplete fat stores. Temperature-sensitive dataloggers were attached to the backs of 504 free-ranging little brown bats (Myotis lucifugus) in hibernacula located throughout the northeastern USA. Dataloggers were retrieved at the end of the hibernation season and complete profiles of skin temperature data were available from 83 bats, which were categorized as: (1) unaffected, (2) WNS-affected but alive at time of datalogger removal, or (3) WNS-affected but found dead at time of datalogger removal. Histological confirmation of WNS severity (as indexed by degree of fungal infection) as well as confirmation of presence/absence of DNA from Gd by PCR was determined for 26 animals. We demonstrated that WNS-affected bats aroused to euthermic body temperatures more frequently than unaffected bats, likely contributing to subsequent mortality. Within the subset of WNS-affected bats that were found dead at the time of datalogger removal, the number of arousal bouts since datalogger attachment significantly predicted date of death. Additionally, the severity of cutaneous Gd infection correlated with the number of arousal episodes from torpor during hibernation. Thus, increased frequency of arousal from torpor likely contributes to WNS-associated mortality, but the question of how Gd infection induces increased arousals remains unanswered