Proposed U.S.-South Korea Free Trade Agreement and Potential Employment Effects: Analysis of Studies

[Excerpt] Similar to other trade agreements, the proposed U.S.-South Korea Free Trade Agreement(KORUS-FTA) has attracted both supporters and detractors, primarily over the impact the agreement could have on employment in the economy. Supporters argue that the agreement could create as many as 280,000 jobs in the economy. Others, however, argue that the agreement could lead to an overall loss of up to 159,000 jobs in various sectors of the economy. Still others contend that the United States stands to lose exports, employment, and extended economic opportunities if it fails to sign a trade agreement, while the European Union and other nations are lining up to finalize similar agreements with South Korea. Estimating the economic impact of trade agreements, however, is a daunting task, due to a lack of data and important theoretical and practical matters associated with generating results from economic models. In addition, such estimates provide an incomplete accounting of the total economic effects of trade agreements. This report assesses the results of a number of models that are being used to generate estimates of the effect of the KORUS FTA on employment. These studies were chosen specifically because they estimate (or can be used to estimate) data on employment effects of the trade agreement. All economic models incorporate various assumptions that are necessary in order for the model to generate results. Invariably, these approaches determine, to some extent, the results that are generated and, therefore, limit their representation of the real world economy. Currently, the various models produce widely disparate estimates of the number of jobs affected by the trade agreement, reflecting the various assumptions that are used in the models and differences in the approaches

Turbulent Skin Friction at High Reynolds Numbers and Low Supersonic Velocities

Turbulent skin friction at high Reynolds number and low supersonic speed

Effects of Nose Angle and Mach Number on Transition on Cones at Supersonic Speeds

An investigation has been made to determine the transition characteristics of a group of smooth, sharp-nosed cones varying from 10 degrees to sixty degrees in included apex angle over a Mach number range from 1.61 to 2.20 and a range of Reynolds number per foot from about 1.5 x 10 to the 6th power to 8 x 10 to the 6th power. Increasing the cone angle is shown to decrease slightly the transition Reynolds number, whereas the effects of changes of Mach number and unit Reynolds number are negligible. When transition occurred within 15 to 20 percent of the model length from the base there was a dropoff in transition Reynolds number. (author

Boundary-Layer Transition on a Group of Blunt Nose Shapes at a Mach Number of 2.20

An investigation has been made to study boundary-layer transition on six axisymmetrical blunt bodies of revolution. Model shapes were selected with respect to the degree of favorable pressure gradient over the model surface. Tests were conducted at a Mach number of 2.20 and over a range of free-stream Reynolds number per foot of about 1.4 x 10(exp 6) to 6.5 x 10(exp 6). The tests were made at an angle of attack of 0 deg. with zero heat transfer. For the hemisphere, the flow remained essentially laminar over the model surface length for the entire pressure range of the tests. For a strong favorable pressure gradient followed by any weak favorable, neutral, or adverse gradient, the tendency was for transition to occur at or immediately behind the shoulder. A single strip of three-dimensional roughness in the region of strong favorable pressure gradient did not fix transition on the models at the roughness location except at the maximum test pressures, whereas a second roughness strip added in a region of neutral or adverse pressure gradient did fix transition. Experimental pressure coefficients agreed closely with modified Newtonian theory except in the shoulder region

The effect of organic management on soil quality indicators

This report was presented at the UK Organic Research 2002 Conference. A range of physical, biological and chemical parameters were measured in organic soil that had been managed in different ways and in a conventional control. Factors were identified that could be used to construct an index of soil quality

Proposed U.S.-South Korea Free Trade Agreement and Potential Employment Effects: Analysis of Studies

This report discusses the free trade agreement between United States and South Korea, and the potential economic implications for both the United States and South Korea. This report assesses the results of a number of models that are being used to generate estimates of the effect of the KORUS FTA on employment. These studies were chosen specifically because they estimate (or can be used to estimate) data on employment effects of the trade agreement

U.S. Trade Concepts, Performance, and Policy: Frequently Asked Questions

This report discusses trade issues relevant to Congress. The report is divided into four sections in a question-and-answer format: trade concepts; U.S. trade performance; formulation of U.S. trade policy; and trade and investment issues

Classification and Regression Tree (CART) analysis to predict influenza in primary care patients

Abstract Background The use of neuraminidase-inhibiting anti-viral medication to treat influenza is relatively infrequent. Rapid, cost-effective methods for diagnosing influenza are needed to enable appropriate prescribing. Multi-viral respiratory panels using reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (PCR) assays to diagnose influenza are accurate but expensive and more time-consuming than low sensitivity rapid influenza tests. Influenza clinical decision algorithms are both rapid and inexpensive, but most are based on regression analyses that do not account for higher order interactions. This study used classification and regression trees (CART) modeling to estimate probabilities of influenza. Methods Eligible enrollees ≥ 5 years old (n = 4,173) who presented at ambulatory centers for treatment of acute respiratory illness (≤7 days) with cough or fever in 2011–2012, provided nasal and pharyngeal swabs for PCR testing for influenza, information on demographics, symptoms, personal characteristics and self-reported influenza vaccination status. Results Antiviral medication was prescribed for just 15 % of those with PCR-confirmed influenza. An algorithm that included fever, cough, and fatigue had sensitivity of 84 %, specificity of 48 %, positive predictive value (PPV) of 23 % and negative predictive value (NPV) of 94 % for the development sample. Conclusions The CART algorithm has good sensitivity and high NPV, but low PPV for identifying influenza among outpatients ≥5 years. Thus, it is good at identifying a group who do not need testing or antivirals and had fair to good predictive performance for influenza. Further testing of the algorithm in other influenza seasons would help to optimize decisions for lab testing or treatment.http://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/134640/1/12879_2016_Article_1839.pd

Incipient alcohol use in childhood: Early alcohol sipping and its relations with psychopathology and personality

Prior research has shown that sipping of alcohol begins to emerge during childhood and is potentially etiologically significant for later substance use problems. Using a large, community sample of 9- and 10-year-olds (N = 11,872; 53% female), we examined individual differences in precocious alcohol use in the form of alcohol sipping. We focused explicitly on features that are robust and well-demonstrated correlates of, and antecedents to, alcohol excess and related problems later in the lifespan, including youth- and parent-reported externalizing traits (i.e., impulsivity, behavioral inhibition and activation) and psychopathology. Seventeen percent of the sample reported sipping alcohol outside of a religiously sanctioned activity by age 9 or 10. Several aspects of psychopathology and personality emerged as small but reliable correlates of sipping. Nonreligious sipping was related to youth-reported impulsigenic traits, aspects of behavioral activation, prodromal psychotic-like symptoms, and mood disorder diagnoses, as well as parent-reported externalizing disorder diagnoses. Religious sipping was unexpectedly associated with certain aspects of impulsivity. Together, our findings point to the potential importance of impulsivity and other transdiagnostic indicators of psychopathology (e.g., emotion dysregulation, novelty seeking) in the earliest forms of drinking behavior