Statistical inference in two-sample summary-data Mendelian randomization using robust adjusted profile score

Mendelian randomization (MR) is a method of exploiting genetic variation to unbiasedly estimate a causal effect in presence of unmeasured confounding. MR is being widely used in epidemiology and other related areas of population science. In this paper, we study statistical inference in the increasingly popular two-sample summary-data MR design. We show a linear model for the observed associations approximately holds in a wide variety of settings when all the genetic variants satisfy the exclusion restriction assumption, or in genetic terms, when there is no pleiotropy. In this scenario, we derive a maximum profile likelihood estimator with provable consistency and asymptotic normality. However, through analyzing real datasets, we find strong evidence of both systematic and idiosyncratic pleiotropy in MR, echoing the omnigenic model of complex traits that is recently proposed in genetics. We model the systematic pleiotropy by a random effects model, where no genetic variant satisfies the exclusion restriction condition exactly. In this case we propose a consistent and asymptotically normal estimator by adjusting the profile score. We then tackle the idiosyncratic pleiotropy by robustifying the adjusted profile score. We demonstrate the robustness and efficiency of the proposed methods using several simulated and real datasets.Comment: 59 pages, 5 figures, 6 table

Towards Secure and Safe Appified Automated Vehicles

The advancement in Autonomous Vehicles (AVs) has created an enormous market for the development of self-driving functionalities,raising the question of how it will transform the traditional vehicle development process. One adventurous proposal is to open the AV platform to third-party developers, so that AV functionalities can be developed in a crowd-sourcing way, which could provide tangible benefits to both automakers and end users. Some pioneering companies in the automotive industry have made the move to open the platform so that developers are allowed to test their code on the road. Such openness, however, brings serious security and safety issues by allowing untrusted code to run on the vehicle. In this paper, we introduce the concept of an Appified AV platform that opens the development framework to third-party developers. To further address the safety challenges, we propose an enhanced appified AV design schema called AVGuard, which focuses primarily on mitigating the threats brought about by untrusted code, leveraging theory in the vehicle evaluation field, and conducting program analysis techniques in the cybersecurity area. Our study provides guidelines and suggested practice for the future design of open AV platforms

RANS Turbulence Model Development using CFD-Driven Machine Learning

This paper presents a novel CFD-driven machine learning framework to develop Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) models. The CFD-driven training is an extension of the gene expression programming method (Weatheritt and Sandberg, 2016), but crucially the fitness of candidate models is now evaluated by running RANS calculations in an integrated way, rather than using an algebraic function. Unlike other data-driven methods that fit the Reynolds stresses of trained models to high-fidelity data, the cost function for the CFD-driven training can be defined based on any flow feature from the CFD results. This extends the applicability of the method especially when the training data is limited. Furthermore, the resulting model, which is the one providing the most accurate CFD results at the end of the training, inherently shows good performance in RANS calculations. To demonstrate the potential of this new method, the CFD-driven machine learning approach is applied to model development for wake mixing in turbomachines. A new model is trained based on a high-pressure turbine case and then tested for three additional cases, all representative of modern turbine nozzles. Despite the geometric configurations and operating conditions being different among the cases, the predicted wake mixing profiles are significantly improved in all of these a posteriori tests. Moreover, the model equation is explicitly given and available for analysis, thus it could be deduced that the enhanced wake prediction is predominantly due to the extra diffusion introduced by the CFD-driven model.Comment: Accepted by Journal of Computational Physic

The Regulation of Migration in a Transition Economy: China’s Hukou System

Unlike most countries, China regulates internal migration. Public benefits, access to good quality housing, schools, health care, and attractive employment opportunities are available only to those who have local registration (Hukou). Coincident with the deepening of economic reforms, Hukou has gradually been relaxed since the 1980s, helping to explain an extraordinary surge of migration within China. In this study of interprovincial Chinese migration, we address two questions. First, what is a sensible way of incorporating Hukou into theoretical and empirical models of internal migration? Second, to what extent has Hukou influenced the scale and structure of migration? We incorporate two alternative measures of Hukou into a modified gravity model – the unregistered migrant's: (i) perceived probability of securing Hukou; and (ii) perceived probability of securing employment opportunities available only to those with Hukou. In contrast to previous studies, our model includes a much wider variety of control especially important for the Chinese case. Analyzing the relationship between Hukou and migration using census data for 1985-90, 1995-2000 and 2000-05, we find that migration is very sensitive to Hukou, with the greatest sensitivity occurring during the middle period.internal migration, Hukou, migrant networks, reforms