Global Biofuel Expansion and the Demand for Brazilian Land: Intensification versus Expansion

We use a spatially disaggregated model of Brazilian agriculture to assess the implications of global biofuel expansion on Brazilian land usage at the regional level. This Brazilian model is part of the FAPRI agricultural modeling system, a multimarket, multi-commodity international agricultural model, used to quantify the emergence of biofuels and to analyze the impact of biofuel expansion and policies on both Brazilian and world agriculture. We evaluate two scenarios in which we introduce a 25% exogenous increase in the global demand for ethanol and one scenario in which we increase global ethanol demand by 50%. We then analyze the impact of these increases in terms of land-use change and commodity price changes particularly in Brazil. In the first scenario, we assume that the enforcement of the land-use reserve in Brazil remains at historically observed levels, and that abundant additional land can be readily incorporated into production. The second scenario involves implementing the same exogenous biofuel demand shock but with a different responsiveness in area expansion to price signals in Brazil, reflecting varying plausible assumptions on land availability for agricultural expansion. The third scenario, which is similar to the first scenario but with a larger increase in global ethanol demand, is run to check whether increasing volume of ethanol requires the incorporation of additional quantities of land per unit of ethanol. We find that, within Brazil, the expansion occurs mostly in the Southeast region. Additionally, total sugarcane area expansion in Brazil is higher than the increase in overall area used for agriculture. This implies that part of the sugarcane expansion displaced other crops and pasture that is not replaced, which suggests some intensification in land use. The lower land expansion elasticities in the second scenario result in a smaller expansion of area used for agricultural activities. A higher proportion of the expansion in sugarcane area occurs at the expense of pasture area, which implied land intensification of beef production. This explains the small change in commodity prices observed between the first and second scenarios. These results suggest that reducing the overall responsiveness of Brazilian agriculture may limit the land-use changes brought about by biofuel expansion, which would in turn reduce its environmental impacts in terms of land expansion. Additionally, the impacts on food prices are limited because of the ability of local producers to increase the intensity of land use in both crop (by double cropping and raising yields) and livestock production (by increasing the number of heads of cattle per hectare of pasture or stocking rate) releases area that can be used for crops. In scenario three, we find that larger ethanol volumes did not require more land per unit of ethanol. Doubling the demand for ethanol does not change the results, which indicates that the limit for intensification is beyond the 50% expansion assumed in Scenario 3. In this range, the same amount of land is incorporated into production per additional unit of ethanol.Biofuels, Brazil, land use, Land Economics/Use,

Peles e couros ovinos e caprinos : indústria e mercado.

Também disponível no CD-214 SIM

Research on Long-Term Care Homes for Older People in Brazil: Protocol for Scoping Review

LOTUS CONSORTIUM - Improving care in Long-term Care Institutions in Brazil and Europe through Collaboration and ResearchBackground The fast growth of the ageing population in low and middle-income countries, such as Brazil, has allowed little time for social and health care systems to adapt. As the care needs for the most vulnerable and frail older people become increasingly complex, services and governments need to ensure that long term care homes deliver high-quality and evidence-based care to meet their healthcare needs. Aim To examine and map the range of research undertaken in Brazil regarding care homes published in peer reviewed journals. Method This scoping review will consider all relevant peer-reviewed primary studies fully or partly conducted in Brazilian care homes including those which consider workforce (for example, e.g. healthcare professionals, care staff, and management level staff) and care home residents (older people aged 60 years and above), using empirical and original research focused on any health related topic. The searches will be conducted using bibliographic databases (MEDLINE, EMBASE, LILACS and Google Scholar) and manual searching of the reference lists of relevant studies published in English, Portuguese or Spanish from inception up to 2018. Two authors will independently screen each document by title and abstract against the eligibility criteria. In case of disagreement, a third reviewer will be consulted. Data from the included studies will be extracted and reported using tables, graphs, and narrative accounts using elements of content analysis. The Mixed Methods Appraisal Tool will be used to appraise the methodological quality of the included studies

Short communication: Prevalence of deleterious variants causing recessive disorders in Italian Chianina, Marchigiana and Romagnola cattle.

In the last two decades, the molecular cause of six monogenic autosomal recessive disorders has been identified in native Italian beef cattle: two different ATP2A1 variants for the pseudomyotonia congenita, the first in Chianina and Romagnola (PMT1) and the second in Romagnola (PMT2); a KDM2B variant for the paunch calf syndrome (PCS) in Marchigiana and Romagnola; a NID1 variant for the congenital cataract (CC) in Romagnola; a LAMB1 variant for the hemifacial microsomia (HFM) in Romagnola; an ABCA12 variant for the ichthyosis fetalis (IF) in Chianina and a FA2H variant for the ichthyosis congenita (IC) in Chianina. The aim of this study was to evaluate the potential impact of these disorders in the affected Italian populations. For this purpose, 3331 Chianina, 2812 Marchigiana and 1680 Romagnola bulls born in the last 40 years were considered. The allelic frequency (AF) of the variant for PMT1 was 1.0% in Romagnola, 4.6% in Marchigiana and 5.9% in Chianina. The AF of the variant for PMT2 was 3.3% in Romagnola and 0% in the other two breeds. The AF of the variant for PCS was 11.7% in Romagnola, 2.0% in Marchigiana and 0% in Chianina. The AF of the variants for CC, HFM, IF and IC resulted below 3%, being the variants detected only in the breed populations in which they were previously reported. Considering a selected male population in the single breed, Chianina showed carrier prevalence of 11.9% for PMT1, 7.7% for IC and 6.4% for IF. Romagnola showed carrier prevalence of 23.4% for PCS, 6.7% for PMT2, 4.1% for HFM, 3.2% for CC and 2.0% for PMT1. Marchigiana showed carrier prevalence of 9.1% for PMT1 and 4.0% for PCS. With respect to the Romagnola cattle, the concerning presence of a total of five defect alleles in the population hampers a general approach based on the prevention of carriers from artificial insemination. However, identification of carriers may allow conscious mating to prevent the risk of homozygous descendants as well as the spread of heterozygous offspring. Therefore, systematic genotyping for all seven known harmful alleles is recommended to prevent risk mating between carriers, in particular to avoid the occurrence of affected offspring

Sensitivity of Carbon Emission Estimates from Indirect Land-Use Change

We analyze the sensitivity of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from land-use change to modifications in assumptions concerning crop area, yield, and deforestation. For this purpose, we run a modified version of the Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) Agricultural Outlook Model, which was used previously to assess the impacts of energy price increases and biofuel policy changes on land conversion. To calculate the GHG implications of agricultural activity, we use GreenAgSiM, a model developed to evaluate emissions from land conversion and agricultural production. Both models are applied to scenarios that lead to higher US ethanol production. The results are contrasted with the findings of Searchinger et al., and we explain the role of model assumptions to elucidate the differences. We find that the payback period of corn ethanol’s carbon debt is sensitive to assumptions concerning land conversion and yield growth and can range from 31 to 180 years.biofuel, crop yield, greenhouse gas emissions, indirect land-use change.

Industrialização e mercado das peles caprina e ovina.

A indústria couro-calçadista que opera com peles caprina e ovina está em franca expansão no Brasil. Entretanto, a oferta de peles não tem atendido a demanda dos curtumes brasileiros, cuja capacidade instalada é suficiente para curtir o dobro das peles ovinas e caprinas atualmente processadas. Em conseqüência, o País tem recorrido a contínuas importações de matéria-prima para a manutenção de seu parque industrial. Os cenários atuais são favoráveis às atividades da caprinocultura e ovinocultura nas diferentes regiões do País. Os preços dos produtos derivados dos couros das duas espécies são crescentes, estimulando a adesão de novos empresários à atividade. O presente trabalho apresenta, de forma clara e objetiva, o panorama da competitividade do País no tocante à industrialização e ao mercado das peles oriundas dos pequenos ruminantesbitstream/CNPC/20707/1/doc68.pd

A DECOMPOSITION APPROACH TO ASSESS ILUC RESULTS FROM GLOBAL MODELING EFFORTS

Environmental Economics and Policy, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy,