Methods for estimating the case fatality ratio for a novel, emerging infectious disease.

During the course of an epidemic of a potentially fatal disease, it is important that the case fatality ratio be well estimated. The authors propose a novel method for doing so based on the Kaplan-Meier survival procedure, jointly considering two outcomes (death and recovery), and evaluate its performance by using data from the 2003 epidemic of severe acute respiratory syndrome in Hong Kong, People's Republic of China. They compare this estimate obtained at various points in the epidemic with the case fatality ratio eventually observed; with two commonly quoted, naïve estimates derived from cumulative incidence and mortality statistics at single time points; and with estimates in which a parametric mixture model is used. They demonstrate the importance of patient characteristics regarding outcome by analyzing subgroups defined by age at admission to the hospital

Epstein-Barr virus infections and DNA hybridization studies in posttransplantation lymphoma and lymphoproliferative lesions: The role of primary infection

Fourteen patients who developed B cell lymphomas or lymphoproliferative lesions after kidney, liver, heart, or heart-lung transplantation in Pittsburgh during 1981-1983 had active infection with Epstein-Barr virus (EBV)of the primary (six patients), reactivated (seven patients), or chronic (one patient) type. In transplant patients without tumors, the incidence of EBV infection was 30% (39 of 128). Only three of these patients had primary infections. Thus the frequency of active infection was significantly higher in patients with tumors, and patients with primary infections were at greater risk of developing tumors. Five of 13 tumors tested contained EBV nuclear antigen (EBNA) and nine of 11 contained EBV genomes detected by DNA-DNA hybridization with BamHI K, BamHI W, or EcoRI B cloned probes. All EBNA-positive tumors, except one, were also positive by hybridization. Only one tumor was negative for both EBNA and EBV DNA. These data suggest that EBV plays an etiologic role in the development of these lesions. © 1985 by The University of Chicago

Reversibility of lymphomas and lymphoproliferative lesions developing under cyclosporin-steroid therapy

Post-transplant lymphomas or other lymphoproliferative lesions, which were usually associated with Epstein-Barr virus infections, developed in 8, 4, 3, and 2 recipients, respectively, of cadaveric kidney, liver, heart, and heart-lung homografts. Reduction or discontinuance of immunosuppression caused regression of the lesions, often without subsequent rejection of the grafts. Chemotherapy and irradiation were not valuable. The findings may influence policies about treating other kinds of post-transplantation neoplasms

Mandibular reconstruction: a new defect classification system

This paper presents a new mandibular segmental defect classification system (La-Co-CE) with a view to highlight the complexity and difficulty of the reconstruction with free autogenous bone grafts which the most frequently used method for surgeons practicing in developing countries. We submit that defect classification systems will continue to remain relevant if surgeons are to is pre-operatively classify the envisaged operative difficulty and objectively compare the outcome postoperatively. Key words: Mandibular reconstruction, defect, classification

Asymptomatic members with SOD1 mutation in a large kindred with familial amyotrophic lateral sclerosis have abnormal water diffusion characterisitcs

DTI was carried out in FALS/SALS patients and familial members with SOD1 mutation (AFALS) who may be in a pre-symptomatic phase of ALS. The changes in FA and TT were investigated in CBT/CST and in whole brain. In FALS/SALS, diffusion pattern changes were found in cerebral peduncle, internal capsule, sub-cortical white matter, cerebellum and frontal lobe while in AFALS, abnormal pattern could also be detected in the cerebral peduncle, cerebellum and frontal lobe but with a smaller extent. Our study indicates that DTI can show early diffusion changes in members with SOD1 mutation in FALS prior to symptom-onset.published_or_final_versio

Projections of hydrology in the Tocantins-Araguaia Basin, Brazil: uncertainty assessment using the CMIP5 ensemble

A semi-distributed hydrological model is developed, calibrated and validated against unregulated river discharge from the Tocantins-Araguaia River Basin, northern Brazil. Climate change impacts are simulated using projections from the 41 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 climate models for the period 2071–2100 under the RCP4.5 scenario. Scenario results are compared to a 1971–2000 baseline. Most climate models suggest declines in mean annual discharge although some predict increases. A large proportion suggest that the dry season experiences large declines in discharge, especially during the transition to the rising water period. Most models (>75%) suggest declines in annual minimum flows. This may have major implications for both current and planned hydropower schemes. There is greater uncertainty in projected changes in wet season and annual maximum discharges. Two techniques are investigated to reduce uncertainty in projections, but neither are able to provide more confidence in the..

The infection attack rate and severity of 2009 pandemic H1N1 influenza in Hong Kong

Background. Serial cross-sectional data on antibody levels to the 2009 pandemic H1N1 influenza A virus from a population can be used to estimate the infection attack rates and immunity against future infection in the community. Methods. From April through December 2009, we obtained 12,217 serum specimens from blood donors (aged 16-59 years), 2520 specimens from hospital outpatients (aged 5-59 years), and 917 specimens from subjects involved in a community pediatric cohort study (aged 5-14 years). We estimated infection attack rates by comparing the proportions of specimens with antibody titers ≥1:40 by viral microneutralization before and after the first wave of the pandemic. Estimates were validated using paired serum samples from 324 individuals that spanned the first wave. Combining these estimates with epidemiologic surveillance data, we calculated the proportion of infections that led to hospitalization, admission to the intensive care unit (ICU), and death. Results. We found that 3.3% and 14% of persons aged 5-59 years had antibody titers ≥1:40 before and after the first wave, respectively. The overall attack rate was 10.7%, with age stratification as follows: 43.4% in persons aged 5-14 years, 15.8% in persons aged 15-19 years, 11.8% in persons aged 20-29 years, and 4%-4.6% in persons aged 30-59 years. Case-hospitalization rates were 0.47%-0.87% among persons aged 5-59 years. Case-ICU rates were 7.9 cases per 100,000 infections in persons aged 5-14 years and 75 cases per 100,000 infections in persons aged 50-59 years, respectively. Case-fatality rates were 0.4 cases per 100,000 infections in persons aged 5-14 years and 26.5 cases per 100,000 infections in persons aged 50-59 years, respectively. Conclusions. Almost half of all school-aged children in Hong Kong were infected during the first wave. Compared with school children aged 5-14 years, older adults aged 50-59 years had 9.5 and 66 times higher risks of ICU admission and death if infected, respectively. © 2010 by the Infectious Diseases Society of America. All rights reserved.published_or_final_versio

Mavacamten for treatment of symptomatic obstructive hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (EXPLORER-HCM): health status analysis of a randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled, phase 3 trial

BACKGROUND: Improving symptoms is a primary treatment goal in patients with obstructive hypertrophic cardiomyopathy. Currently available pharmacological options for hypertrophic cardiomyopathy are not disease-specific and are often inadequate or poorly tolerated. We aimed to assess the effect of mavacamten, a first-in-class cardiac myosin inhibitor, on patients' health status-ie, symptoms, physical and social function, and quality of life. METHODS: We did a health status analysis of EXPLORER-HCM, a phase 3, double-blind, randomised, placebo-controlled trial. The study took place at 68 clinical cardiovascular centres in 13 countries. Adult patients (≥18 years) with symptomatic obstructive hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (gradient ≥50 mm Hg and New York Heart Association class II-III) were randomly assigned (1:1) to mavacamten or placebo for 30 weeks, followed by an 8-week washout period. Both patients and staff were masked to study treatment. The primary outcome for this secondary analysis was the Kansas City Cardiomyopathy Questionnaire (KCCQ), a well validated disease-specific measure of patients' health status. It was administered at baseline and weeks 6, 12, 18, 30 (end of treatment), and 38 (end of study). Changes from baseline to week 30 in KCCQ overall summary (OS) score and all subscales were analysed using mixed model repeated measures. This study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT03470545. FINDINGS: Between May 30, 2018, and July 12, 2019, 429 adults were assessed for eligibility, of whom 251 (59%) were enrolled and randomly assigned. Of 123 patients randomly assigned to mavacamten, 92 (75%) completed the KCCQ at baseline and week 30 and of the 128 patients randomly assigned to placebo 88 (69%) completed the KCCQ at baseline and week 30. At 30 weeks, the change in KCCQ-OS score was greater with mavacamten than placebo (mean score 14·9 [SD 15·8] vs 5·4 [13·7]; difference +9·1 [95% CI 5·5-12·8]; p<0·0001), with similar benefits across all KCCQ subscales. The proportion of patients with a very large change (KCCQ-OS ≥20 points) was 36% (33 of 92) in the mavacamten group versus 15% (13 of 88) in the placebo group, with an estimated absolute difference of 21% (95% CI 8·8-33·4) and number needed to treat of five (95% CI 3-11). These gains returned to baseline after treatment was stopped. INTERPRETATION: Mavacamten markedly improved the health status of patients with symptomatic obstructive hypertrophic cardiomyopathy compared with placebo, with a low number needed to treat for marked improvement. Given that the primary goals of treatment are to improve symptoms, physical and social function, and quality of life, mavacamten represents a new potential strategy for achieving these goals. FUNDING: MyoKardia, a Bristol Myers Squibb company