Methods for estimating the case fatality ratio for a novel, emerging infectious disease.

During the course of an epidemic of a potentially fatal disease, it is important that the case fatality ratio be well estimated. The authors propose a novel method for doing so based on the Kaplan-Meier survival procedure, jointly considering two outcomes (death and recovery), and evaluate its performance by using data from the 2003 epidemic of severe acute respiratory syndrome in Hong Kong, People's Republic of China. They compare this estimate obtained at various points in the epidemic with the case fatality ratio eventually observed; with two commonly quoted, naïve estimates derived from cumulative incidence and mortality statistics at single time points; and with estimates in which a parametric mixture model is used. They demonstrate the importance of patient characteristics regarding outcome by analyzing subgroups defined by age at admission to the hospital

A frequentist framework of inductive reasoning

Reacting against the limitation of statistics to decision procedures, R. A. Fisher proposed for inductive reasoning the use of the fiducial distribution, a parameter-space distribution of epistemological probability transferred directly from limiting relative frequencies rather than computed according to the Bayes update rule. The proposal is developed as follows using the confidence measure of a scalar parameter of interest. (With the restriction to one-dimensional parameter space, a confidence measure is essentially a fiducial probability distribution free of complications involving ancillary statistics.) A betting game establishes a sense in which confidence measures are the only reliable inferential probability distributions. The equality between the probabilities encoded in a confidence measure and the coverage rates of the corresponding confidence intervals ensures that the measure's rule for assigning confidence levels to hypotheses is uniquely minimax in the game. Although a confidence measure can be computed without any prior distribution, previous knowledge can be incorporated into confidence-based reasoning. To adjust a p-value or confidence interval for prior information, the confidence measure from the observed data can be combined with one or more independent confidence measures representing previous agent opinion. (The former confidence measure may correspond to a posterior distribution with frequentist matching of coverage probabilities.) The representation of subjective knowledge in terms of confidence measures rather than prior probability distributions preserves approximate frequentist validity.Comment: major revisio

Evolution of HIV virulence in response to widespread scale up of antiretroviral therapy: a modeling study

There are global increases in the use of HIV antiretroviral therapy (ART), guided by clinical benefits of early ART initiation and the efficacy of treatment as prevention of transmission. Separately, it has been shown theoretically and empirically that HIV virulence can evolve over time; observed virulence levels may reflect an adaptive balance between infected lifespan and per-contact transmission rate. However, the potential effects of widespread ART usage on HIV virulence are unknown. To predict these effects, we used an agent-based stochastic model to simulate evolutionary trends in HIV virulence, using set point viral load as a proxy for virulence. We calibrated our model to prevalence and incidence trends of South Africa. We explored two distinct ART scenarios: (1) ART initiation based on HIV-infected individuals reaching a CD4 count threshold; and (2) ART initiation based on individual time elapsed since HIV infection (a scenario that mimics “universal testing and treatment” (UTT) aspirations). In each case, we considered a range in population uptake of ART. We found that HIV virulence is generally unchanged in scenarios of CD4-based initiation. However, with ART initiation based on time since infection, virulence can increase moderately within several years of ART rollout, under high coverage levels and early treatment initiation (albeit within the context of epidemics that are rapidly decreasing in size). Sensitivity analyses suggested the impact of ART on virulence is relatively insensitive to model calibration. Our modeling study suggests that increasing HIV virulence driven by UTT is likely not a major public health concern, but should be monitored in sentinel surveillance, in a manner similar to transmitted resistance to antiretroviral drugs

Bayesian Best-Arm Identification for Selecting Influenza Mitigation Strategies

Pandemic influenza has the epidemic potential to kill millions of people. While various preventive measures exist (i.a., vaccination and school closures), deciding on strategies that lead to their most effective and efficient use remains challenging. To this end, individual-based epidemiological models are essential to assist decision makers in determining the best strategy to curb epidemic spread. However, individual-based models are computationally intensive and it is therefore pivotal to identify the optimal strategy using a minimal amount of model evaluations. Additionally, as epidemiological modeling experiments need to be planned, a computational budget needs to be specified a priori. Consequently, we present a new sampling technique to optimize the evaluation of preventive strategies using fixed budget best-arm identification algorithms. We use epidemiological modeling theory to derive knowledge about the reward distribution which we exploit using Bayesian best-arm identification algorithms (i.e., Top-two Thompson sampling and BayesGap). We evaluate these algorithms in a realistic experimental setting and demonstrate that it is possible to identify the optimal strategy using only a limited number of model evaluations, i.e., 2-to-3 times faster compared to the uniform sampling method, the predominant technique used for epidemiological decision making in the literature. Finally, we contribute and evaluate a statistic for Top-two Thompson sampling to inform the decision makers about the confidence of an arm recommendation

Efficacy and Safety of Atacicept in Patients With Systemic Lupus Erythematosus: Results of a Twenty‐Four–Week, Multicenter, Randomized, Double‐Blind, Placebo‐Controlled, Parallel‐Arm, Phase IIb Study

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the efficacy and safety of atacicept, an antagonist of BLyS/APRIL-mediated B cell activation, in patients with systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE). METHODS: ADDRESS II was a phase IIb, multicentre study (NCT01972568). Patients with active, autoantibody-positive SLE receiving standard therapy were randomized (1:1:1) to atacicept (75 or 150 mg) or placebo for 24 weeks. The primary endpoint was the SLE responder index (SRI)-4 at Week 24. RESULTS: The ITT population included 306 patients. There was a trend towards improved SRI-4 response rate with atacicept 75 mg (57.8% [adjusted OR 1.78], P = 0.045) and 150 mg (53.8% [adjusted OR 1.56], P = 0.121) versus placebo (44.0%) at Week 24 (primary analysis; screening visit as baseline). In a pre-specified sensitivity analysis using study Day 1 as baseline, a significantly larger proportion of patients receiving atacicept 75 mg (55.9% [adjusted OR 1.88], P = 0.029) and 150 mg (55.8% [adjusted OR 1.96], P = 0.020) achieved SRI-4 response at Week 24 versus placebo (41%). In pre-defined subpopulations with baseline high disease activity (HDA), serologically active disease (SA), or both, statistically significant improvements in SRI-4 and SRI-6 response rates were seen with atacicept versus placebo. Severe flare risk was reduced with atacicept in both the ITT and HDA populations. The risks of serious adverse events and serious or severe infection were not increased with atacicept versus placebo. CONCLUSION: Atacicept showed evidence of efficacy in SLE, particularly in HDA and SA patients. Reductions in disease activity and severe flare were observed with atacicept treatment, along with an acceptable safety profile

8 Efficacy and safety of atacicept in patients with systemic lupus erythematosus: results of a 24-week randomisedrandomized, placebo-controlled, phase iib study

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There Is No Safe Dose of Prions

Understanding the circumstances under which exposure to transmissible spongiform encephalopathies (TSEs) leads to infection is important for managing risks to public health. Based upon ideas in toxicology and radiology, it is plausible that exposure to harmful agents, including TSEs, is completely safe if the dose is low enough. However, the existence of a threshold, below which infection probability is zero has never been demonstrated experimentally. Here we explore this question by combining data and mathematical models that describe scrapie infections in mice following experimental challenge over a broad range of doses. We analyse data from 4338 mice inoculated at doses ranging over ten orders of magnitude. These data are compared to results from a within-host model in which prions accumulate according to a stochastic birth-death process. Crucially, this model assumes no threshold on the dose required for infection. Our data reveal that infection is possible at the very low dose of a 1000 fold dilution of the dose that infects half the challenged animals (ID50). Furthermore, the dose response curve closely matches that predicted by the model. These findings imply that there is no safe dose of prions and that assessments of the risk from low dose exposure are right to assume a linear relationship between dose and probability of infection. We also refine two common perceptions about TSE incubation periods: that their mean values decrease linearly with logarithmic decreases in dose and that they are highly reproducible between hosts. The model and data both show that the linear decrease in incubation period holds only for doses above the ID50. Furthermore, variability in incubation periods is greater than predicted by the model, not smaller. This result poses new questions about the sources of variability in prion incubation periods. It also provides insight into the limitations of the incubation period assay

Knowledge, Attitudes and Practices (KAP) related to the Pandemic (H1N1) 2009 among Chinese General Population: a Telephone Survey

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>China is at greatest risk of the Pandemic (H1N1) 2009 due to its huge population and high residential density. The unclear comprehension and negative attitudes towards the emerging infectious disease among general population may lead to unnecessary worry and even panic. The objective of this study was to investigate the Chinese public response to H1N1 pandemic and provide baseline data to develop public education campaigns in response to future outbreaks.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>A close-ended questionnaire developed by the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention was applied to assess the knowledge, attitudes and practices (KAP) of pandemic (H1N1) 2009 among 10,669 responders recruited from seven urban and two rural areas of China sampled by using the probability proportional to size (PPS) method.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>30.0% respondents were not clear whether food spread H1N1 virusand. 65.7% reported that the pandemic had no impact on their life. The immunization rates of the seasonal flu and H1N1vaccine were 7.5% and 10.8%, respectively. Farmers and those with lower education level were less likely to know the main transmission route (cough or talk face to face). Female and those with college and above education had higher perception of risk and more compliance with preventive behaviors. Relationships between knowledge and risk perception (OR = 1.69; 95%CI 1.54-1.86), and knowledge and practices (OR = 1.57; 95%CI 1.42-1.73) were found among the study subjects. With regard to the behavior of taking up A/H1N1 vaccination, there are several related factors found in the current study population, including the perception of life disturbed (OR = 1.29; 95%CI 1.11-1.50), the safety of A/H1N1 vaccine (OR = 0.07; 95%CI 0.04-0.11), the knowledge of free vaccination policy (OR = 7.20; 95%CI 5.91-8.78), the state's priority vaccination strategy(OR = 1.33; 95%CI 1.08-1.64), and taking up seasonal influenza vaccine behavior (OR = 4.69; 95%CI 3.53-6.23).</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>This A/H1N1 epidemic has not caused public panic yet, but the knowledge of A/H1N1 in residents is not optimistic. Public education campaign may take the side effects of vaccine and the knowledge about the state's vaccination strategy into account.</p

Equipping for risk: Lessons learnt from the UK shale-gas experience on assessing environmental risks for the future geoenergy use of the deep subsurface

\ua9 2024 The Authors. Summary findings are presented from an investigation to improve understanding of the environmental risks associated with developing an unconventional-hydrocarbons industry in the UK. The EQUIPT4RISK project, funded by UK Research Councils, focused on investigations around Preston New Road (PNR), Fylde, Lancashire, and Kirby Misperton Site A (KMA), North Yorkshire, where operator licences to explore for shale gas by hydraulic fracturing (HF) were issued in 2016, although exploration only took place at PNR. EQUIPT4RISK considered atmospheric (greenhouse gases, air quality), water (groundwater quality) and solid-earth (seismicity) compartments to characterise and model local conditions and environmental responses to HF activities. Risk assessment was based on the source-pathway-receptor approach. Baseline monitoring of air around the two sites characterised the variability with meteorological conditions, and isotopic signatures were able to discriminate biogenic methane (cattle) from thermogenic (natural-gas) sources. Monitoring of a post-HF nitrogen-lift (well-cleaning) operation at PNR detected the release of atmospheric emissions of methane (4.2 \ub1 1.4 t CH4). Groundwater monitoring around KMA identified high baseline methane concentrations and detected ethane and propane at some locations. Dissolved methane was inferred from stable-isotopic evidence as overwhelmingly of biogenic origin. Groundwater-quality monitoring around PNR found no evidence of HF-induced impacts. Two approaches for modelling induced seismicity and associated seismic risk were developed using observations of seismicity and operational parameters from PNR in 2018 and 2019. Novel methodologies developed for monitoring include use of machine learning to identify fugitive atmospheric methane, Bayesian statistics to assess changes to groundwater quality, a seismicity forecasting model seeded by the HF-fluid injection rate and high-resolution monitoring of soil-gas methane. The project developed a risk-assessment framework, aligned with ISO 31000 risk-management principles, to assess the theoretical combined and cumulative environmental risks from operations over time. This demonstrated the spatial and temporal evolution of risk profiles: seismic and atmospheric impacts from the shale-gas operations are modelled to be localised and short-lived, while risk to groundwater quality is longer-term

Renal ultrasound provides low utility in evaluating cardiac surgery associated acute kidney injury

Background Renal ultrasonography is part of the algorithm in assessing acute kidney injury (AKI). The purpose of this study was to assess the clinical utility of renal US in postoperative cardiac patients who develop AKI. Methods We conducted a retrospective study of 90 postoperative cardiac surgery patients at a single institution from 1/19/2010 to 3/19/2016 who underwent renal US for AKI. We reviewed provider documentation to determine whether renal US changed management. We defined change as: administration of crystalloid or colloid, addition of inotropic or vasopressor, or procedural interventions on the renal system. Results Mean age of study patients was 68 ± 13 years. 48/90 patients (53.3%) had pre-existing chronic kidney disease of varying severity. 48 patients (53.3%) had normal renal US with incidental findings and 31 patients (34.4%) had US evidence of medical kidney disease. 10 patients (11.1%) had limited US results due to poor visualization and 1 patient (1.1%) had mild right-sided hydronephrosis. No patients were found to have obstructive uropathy or renal artery stenosis. Clinical management was altered in only 4/90 patients (4.4%), which included 3 patients that received a fluid bolus and 1 patient that received a fluid bolus and inotropes. No vascular or urologic procedures resulted from US findings. Conclusion Although renal ultrasound is often utilized in the work-up of AKI, our study shows that renal US provides little benefit in managing postoperative cardiac patients. This diagnostic modality should be scrutinized rather than viewed as a universal measure in the cardiac surgery population