Tree migration-rates : narrowing the gap between inferred post-glacial rates and projected rates

Faster-than-expected post-glacial migration rates of trees have puzzled ecologists for a long time. In Europe, post-glacial migration is assumed to have started from the three southern European peninsulas (southern refugia), where large areas remained free of permafrost and ice at the peak of the last glaciation. However, increasing palaeobotanical evidence for the presence of isolated tree populations in more northerly microrefugia has started to change this perception. Here we use the Northern Eurasian Plant Macrofossil Database and palaeoecological literature to show that post-glacial migration rates for trees may have been substantially lower (60–260 m yr–1) than those estimated by assuming migration from southern refugia only (115–550 m yr–1), and that early-successional trees migrated faster than mid- and late-successional trees. Post-glacial migration rates are in good agreement with those recently projected for the future with a population dynamical forest succession and dispersal model, mainly for early-successional trees and under optimal conditions. Although migration estimates presented here may be conservative because of our assumption of uniform dispersal, tree migration-rates clearly need reconsideration. We suggest that small outlier populations may be a key factor in understanding past migration rates and in predicting potential future range-shifts. The importance of outlier populations in the past may have an analogy in the future, as many tree species have been planted beyond their natural ranges, with a more beneficial microclimate than their regional surroundings. Therefore, climate-change-induced range-shifts in the future might well be influenced by such microrefugia

A Chandra and XMM View of the Mass & Metals in Galaxy Groups and Clusters

X-ray observations with Chandra and XMM are providing valuable new measurements of the baryonic and dark matter content of groups and clusters. Masses of cD clusters obtained from X-ray and gravitational lensing studies generally show good agreement, therefore providing important validation of both methods. Gas fractions have been obtained for several clusters that verify previous results for a low matter density (Omega_m ~0.3). Chandra has also provided measurements of the mass profiles deep down into several cluster cores and has generally found no significant deviations from CDM predictions in contrast to the flat core density profiles inferred from the rotation curves of low-surface brightness galaxies and dwarf galaxies; i.e., there is no evidence for self-interacting dark matter in cluster cores. Finally, initial studies of the iron and silicon abundances in centrally E-dominated groups show that they have pronounced gradients from 1-2 solar values within the central 30-50 kpc that fall to values of 0.3-0.5 solar at larger radii. The Si/Fe ratios are consistent with approximately 80% of the metals originating from Type Ia supernovae. Several cD clusters also display central Fe enhancements suggestive of Type Ia supernova enrichment, though some have central dips that may provide a vital clue for solving the cooling flow mystery

Standards and Practices for Forecasting

One hundred and thirty-nine principles are used to summarize knowledge about forecasting. They cover formulating a problem, obtaining information about it, selecting and applying methods, evaluating methods, and using forecasts. Each principle is described along with its purpose, the conditions under which it is relevant, and the strength and sources of evidence. A checklist of principles is provided to assist in auditing the forecasting process. An audit can help one to find ways to improve the forecasting process and to avoid legal liability for poor forecasting

An unfolding signifier: London's Baltic Exchange in Tallinn

In the summer of 2007 an unusual cargo arrived at Muuga and Paldiski harbors outside Tallinn. It consisted of nearly 50 containers holding over 1,000 tons of building material ranging from marble columns, staircases and fireplaces, to sculpted allegorical figures, wooden paneling and old-fashioned telephone booths. They were once part of the Baltic Exchange in the City of London. Soon they will become facets of the landscape of Tallinn. The following article charts this remarkable story and deploys this fragmented monument to analyze three issues relating to the Estonian capital: the relocation of the ‘Bronze Soldier’, the demolition of the Sakala Culture Center, and Tallinn’s future role as European Cultural Capital in 2011

Selecting Forecasting Methods

I examined six ways of selecting forecasting methods: Convenience, “what’s easy,” is inexpensive, but risky. Market popularity, “what others do,” sounds appealing but is unlikely to be of value because popularity and success may not be related and because it overlooks some methods. Structured judgment, “what experts advise,” which is to rate methods against prespecified criteria, is promising. Statistical criteria, “what should work,” are widely used and valuable, but risky if applied narrowly. Relative track records, “what has worked in this situation,” are expensive because they depend on conducting evaluation studies. Guidelines from prior research, “what works in this type of situation,” relies on published research and offers a low-cost, effective approach to selection. Using a systematic review of prior research, I developed a flow chart to guide forecasters in selecting among ten forecasting methods. Some key findings: Given enough data, quantitative methods are more accurate than judgmental methods. When large changes are expected, causal methods are more accurate than naive methods. Simple methods are preferable to complex methods; they are easier to understand, less expensive, and seldom less accurate. To select a judgmental method, determine whether there are large changes, frequent forecasts, conflicts among decision makers, and policy considerations. To select a quantitative method, consider the level of knowledge about relationships, the amount of change involved, the type of data, the need for policy analysis, and the extent of domain knowledge. When selection is difficult, combine forecasts from different methods

Has carbohydrate-restriction been forgotten as a treatment for diabetes mellitus? A perspective on the ACCORD study design

Prior to the discovery of medical treatment for diabetes, carbohydrate-restriction was the predominant treatment recommendation to treat diabetes mellitus. In this commentary we argue that carbohydrate-restriction should be reincorporated into contemporary treatment studies for diabetes mellitus

Accuracy and repeatability of wrist joint angles in boxing using an electromagnetic tracking system

© 2019, The Author(s). The hand-wrist region is reported as the most common injury site in boxing. Boxers are at risk due to the amount of wrist motions when impacting training equipment or their opponents, yet we know relatively little about these motions. This paper describes a new method for quantifying wrist motion in boxing using an electromagnetic tracking system. Surrogate testing procedure utilising a polyamide hand and forearm shape, and in vivo testing procedure utilising 29 elite boxers, were used to assess the accuracy and repeatability of the system. 2D kinematic analysis was used to calculate wrist angles using photogrammetry, whilst the data from the electromagnetic tracking system was processed with visual 3D software. The electromagnetic tracking system agreed with the video-based system (paired t tests) in both the surrogate ( 0.9). In the punch testing, for both repeated jab and hook shots, the electromagnetic tracking system showed good reliability (ICCs > 0.8) and substantial reliability (ICCs > 0.6) for flexion–extension and radial-ulnar deviation angles, respectively. The results indicate that wrist kinematics during punching activities can be measured using an electromagnetic tracking system

A preliminary study of the effect of closed incision management with negative pressure wound therapy over high-risk incisions

Background Certain postoperative wounds are recognised to be associated with more complications than others and may be termed high-risk. Wound healing can be particularly challenging following high-energy trauma where wound necrosis and infection rates are high. Surgical incision for joint arthrodesis can also be considered high-risk as it requires extensive and invasive surgery and postoperative distal limb swelling and wound dehiscence are common. Recent human literature has investigated the use of negative pressure wound therapy (NPWT) over high-risk closed surgical incisions and beneficial effects have been noted including decreased drainage, decreased dehiscence and decreased infection rates. In a randomised, controlled study twenty cases undergoing distal limb high-energy fracture stabilisation or arthrodesis were randomised to NPWT or control groups. All cases had a modified Robert-Jones dressing applied for 72 h postoperatively and NPWT was applied for 24 h in the NPWT group. Morphometric assessment of limb circumference was performed at six sites preoperatively, 24 and 72 h postoperatively. Wound discharge was assessed at 24 and 72 h. Postoperative analgesia protocol was standardised and a Glasgow Composite Measure Pain Score (GCPS) carried out at 24, 48 and 72 h. Complications were noted and differences between groups were assessed. Results Percentage change in limb circumference between preoperative and 24 and 72 h postoperative measurements was significantly less at all sites for the NPWT group with exception of the joint proximal to the surgical site and the centre of the operated bone at 72 h. Median discharge score was lower in the NPWT group than the control group at 24 h. No significant differences in GCPS or complication rates were noted. Conclusions Digital swelling and wound discharge were reduced when NPWT was employed for closed incision management. Larger studies are required to evaluate whether this will result in reduced discomfort and complication rates postoperatively