The SIMRAND methodology: Theory and application for the simulation of research and development projects

A research and development (R&D) project often involves a number of decisions that must be made concerning which subset of systems or tasks are to be undertaken to achieve the goal of the R&D project. To help in this decision making, SIMRAND (SIMulation of Research ANd Development Projects) is a methodology for the selection of the optimal subset of systems or tasks to be undertaken on an R&D project. Using alternative networks, the SIMRAND methodology models the alternative subsets of systems or tasks under consideration. Each path through an alternative network represents one way of satisfying the project goals. Equations are developed that relate the system or task variables to the measure of reference. Uncertainty is incorporated by treating the variables of the equations probabilistically as random variables, with cumulative distribution functions assessed by technical experts. Analytical techniques of probability theory are used to reduce the complexity of the alternative networks. Cardinal utility functions over the measure of preference are assessed for the decision makers. A run of the SIMRAND Computer I Program combines, in a Monte Carlo simulation model, the network structure, the equations, the cumulative distribution functions, and the utility functions

Introduction to SIMRAND: Simulation of research and development project

SIMRAND: SIMulation of Research ANd Development Projects is a methodology developed to aid the engineering and management decision process in the selection of the optimal set of systems or tasks to be funded on a research and development project. A project may have a set of systems or tasks under consideration for which the total cost exceeds the allocated budget. Other factors such as personnel and facilities may also enter as constraints. Thus the project's management must select, from among the complete set of systems or tasks under consideration, a partial set that satisfies all project constraints. The SIMRAND methodology uses analytical techniques and probability theory, decision analysis of management science, and computer simulation, in the selection of this optimal partial set. The SIMRAND methodology is truly a management tool. It initially specifies the information that must be generated by the engineers, thus providing information for the management direction of the engineers, and it ranks the alternatives according to the preferences of the decision makers

A contemporary view of systems engineering

The concept of a 'system' is defined, and the 'systems approach' is discussed. Four contemporary examples of the systems approach are presented: an operations research project, the planning-programming-budgeting system, an information processing system, and aerospace programs

Thermal power systems small power systems applications project. Decision analysis for evaluating and ranking small solar thermal power system technologies. Volume 1: A brief introduction to multiattribute decision analysis

The principal concepts of the Keeney and Raiffa approach to multiattribute decision analysis are described. Topics discussed include the concepts of decision alternatives, outcomes, objectives, attributes and their states, attribute utility functions, and the necessary independence properties for the attribute states to be aggregated into a numerical representation of the preferences of the decision maker for the outcomes and decision alternatives

Trajectory selection for the Mariner Jupiter/Saturn 1977 project

The use of decision analysis to facilitate a group decision-making problem in the selection of trajectories for the two spacecraft of the Mariner Jupiter/Saturn 1977 Project. A set of 32 candidate trajectory pairs was developed. Cardinal utility function values were assigned to the trajectory pairs, and the data and statistics derived from collective choice rules were used in selecting the science-preferred trajectory pair

Building an Instrumental Program in the Small School

During the past few years I have observed music teachers particularly in the instrumental field. In observing, I look and listen for these things: attitudes, information, ideals, appreciations, skills, habits of work, and those learnings which pertain to citizenship in a democratic situation. With this fact in mind, the writer should go ahead with confidence in building an instrumental program, noting at the same time that there are many devices, both old and new, which can be used to do a better job. The best teachings, are frequently found among those teachers who are familiar with the greatest amount of materials. The study of materials broadens a teacher\u27s horizon, and makes it possible to give students an enriched fare of musical materials. It also tends to help broaden the teacher\u27s own philosophy of what a music program should contain.1 In building up the instrumental music program, the teacher must examine how the student will make use of his performing ability. It is difficult, but possible, to develop an excellent high school band without any instrumental music below the ninth grade. The writer is certain that it is impossible to develop a good high school orchestra unless the violin players are started while they are in the elementary school. Of course, it is desirable to start players, while they are young, on other instruments, too, but the fact should be stressed that an early start on the violin is a must. The next step is to get the girls and boys started. To do this, we need a teacher and some instruments. It is desirable that the public school provide these essentials, as part of the regular school program, at no extra cost to the pupils. Many school systems do this. Having the teacher and the instruments, next we need some girls and boys. How can the instrumental teacher be sure that he or she will set up an adequate program? It can be done only by organizing his course of study on a definite semester basis, with graded materials which the children can enjoy and perform with satisfaction, and with which they can recognize their own growth in performing ability. The small school, practically all band directors will agree that the instrumentation of the small school should differ from that of the large school; however, there is lack of agreement as to what it should be. The entire subject is more complex than it may appear. It has at it\u27s core important considerations of interests, motivation, organization, efficient management, regularity of habits, and all the human behavior factors treated in psychology and philosophy. While the experienced instrumentalist may frequently take these factors into account, the teacher with a limited knowledge of techniques will need all possible guidance and assistance to adequately understand the problems involved in teaching students to play instruments. 1. Irving Cheyette, Building the Instrumental Program, The Instrumentalist, March-April, 1951, 25

Spaceborne power systems preference analyses. Volume 2: Decision analysis

Sixteen alternative spaceborne nuclear power system concepts were ranked using multiattribute decision analysis. The purpose of the ranking was to identify promising concepts for further technology development and the issues associated with such development. Four groups were interviewed to obtain preference. The four groups were: safety, systems definition and design, technology assessment, and mission analysis. The highest ranked systems were the heat-pipe thermoelectric systems, heat-pipe Stirling, in-core thermionic, and liquid-metal thermoelectric systems. The next group contained the liquid-metal Stirling, heat-pipe Alkali Metal Thermoelectric Converter (AMTEC), heat-pipe Brayton, liquid-metal out-of-core thermionic, and heat-pipe Rankine systems. The least preferred systems were the liquid-metal AMTEC, heat-pipe thermophotovoltaic, liquid-metal Brayton and Rankine, and gas-cooled Brayton. The three nonheat-pipe technologies selected matched the top three nonheat-pipe systems ranked by this study

Spaceborne power systems preference analyses. Volume 1: Summary

Sixteen alternative spaceborne nuclear power system concepts were ranked using multiattribute decision analysis to identify promising concepts for further technology development. Four groups interviewed were: safety, systems definition and design, technology assessment, and mission analysis. The ranking results were consistent from group and for different utility function models for individuals