Forecasting Lightning Threat using Cloud-Resolving Model Simulations

Two new approaches are proposed and developed for making time and space dependent, quantitative short-term forecasts of lightning threat, and a blend of these approaches is devised that capitalizes on the strengths of each. The new methods are distinctive in that they are based entirely on the ice-phase hydrometeor fields generated by regional cloud-resolving numerical simulations, such as those produced by the WRF model. These methods are justified by established observational evidence linking aspects of the precipitating ice hydrometeor fields to total flash rates. The methods are straightforward and easy to implement, and offer an effective near-term alternative to the incorporation of complex and costly cloud electrification schemes into numerical models. One method is based on upward fluxes of precipitating ice hydrometeors in the mixed phase region at the-15 C level, while the second method is based on the vertically integrated amounts of ice hydrometeors in each model grid column. Each method can be calibrated by comparing domain-wide statistics of the peak values of simulated flash rate proxy fields against domain-wide peak total lightning flash rate density data from observations. Tests show that the first method is able to capture much of the temporal variability of the lightning threat, while the second method does a better job of depicting the areal coverage of the threat. Our blended solution is designed to retain most of the temporal sensitivity of the first method, while adding the improved spatial coverage of the second. Exploratory tests for selected North Alabama cases show that, because WRF can distinguish the general character of most convective events, our methods show promise as a means of generating quantitatively realistic fields of lightning threat. However, because the models tend to have more difficulty in predicting the instantaneous placement of storms, forecasts of the detailed location of the lightning threat based on single simulations can be in error. Although these model shortcomings presently limit the precision of lightning threat forecasts from individual runs of current generation models,the techniques proposed herein should continue to be applicable as newer and more accurate physically-based model versions, physical parameterizations, initialization techniques and ensembles of forecasts become available

Knowledge of ghostwriting and financial conflicts-of-interest reduces the perceived credibility of biomedical research

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>While the impact of conflicts-of-interest (COI) is of increasing concern in academic medicine, there is little research on the reaction of practicing clinicians to the disclosure of such conflicts. We developed two research vignettes presenting a fictional antidepressant medication study, one in which the principal investigator had no COI and another in which there were multiple COI disclosed. We confirmed the face validity of the COI vignette through consultation with experts. Hospital-based clinicians were randomly assigned to read one of these two vignettes and then administered a credibility scale.</p> <p>Findings</p> <p>Perceived credibility ratings were much lower in the COI group, with a difference of 11.00 points (31.42%) on the credibility scale total as calculated through the Mann-Whitney U test (95% CI = 6.99 - 15.00, <it>p </it>< .001). Clinicians in the COI group were also less likely to recommend the antidepressant medication discussed in the vignette (Odds Ratio = 0.163, 95% CI = .03 = 0.875).</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>In this study, increased disclosure of COI resulted in lower credibility ratings.</p

A Comparison of DSM-IV and DSM-5 Panel Members' Financial Associations with Industry: A Pernicious Problem Persists

Lisa Cosgrove and Sheldon Krimsky examine the new competing interest disclosure policy of the American Psychiatric Association (APA) and report that DSM panel members still have considerable financial conflicts of interest

Is there an association between depressive and urinary symptoms during and after pregnancy?

Depressive symptoms and urinary symptoms are both highly prevalent in pregnancy. In the general population, an association is reported between urinary symptoms and depressive symptoms. The association of depressive and urinary symptoms has not yet been assessed in pregnancy. In this study, we assessed (1) the prevalence of depressive symptoms, over-active bladder (OAB) syndrome, urge urinary incontinence (UUI) and stress urinary incontinence (SUI) during and after pregnancy using the Center for Epidemiologic Studies Depression Scale (CES-D) and the Urogenital Distress Inventory (UDI) and (2) the association of depressive symptoms with urinary incontinence and over-active bladder syndrome during and after pregnancy, controlling for confounding socioeconomic, psychosocial, behavioural and biomedical factors in a cohort of healthy nulliparous women. Our data show a significant increase in prevalence of depressive symptoms, UUI, SUI and OAB during pregnancy and a significant reduction in prevalence of depressive symptoms, SUI and OAB after childbirth. UUI prevalence did not significantly decrease after childbirth. In univariate analysis, urinary incontinence and the OAB syndrome were significantly associated with a CES-D score indicative of a possible clinical depression at 36 weeks gestation. However, after adjusting for possible confounding factors, only the OAB syndrome remained significantly associated (OR 4.4 [1.8–10.5]). No association was found between depressive and urinary symptoms at 1 year post-partum. Only OAB was independently associated with depressive symptoms during pregnancy. Possible explanations for this association are discussed

Making sense of the evolving nature of depression narratives and their inherent conflicts

Originally a psychiatric diagnosis fashioned by Western psychiatry in the 20th Century, depression evolved to encompass varying lineages of discourse and care. This article elucidates some of the current challenges – as well as emerging discourses – influencing the category of depression. Depression-like experiences are shaped by (at times conflicting) subjectivities, claims to knowledge, material realities, social contexts and access to resources. With no unified understanding of the category of ‘depression’ available, lay people, social and neuro scientists, GPs, psychiatrists, talking therapists and pharmaceutical companies all attempt to shape narratives of depression. The current paper focuses on patient narratives about depression – in the context of these wider debates – to better elucidate the ways in which depression discourses are publically developing along varying lines. In conclusion, the paper suggests that we could better conceptualise the resulting ‘depression(s)’ with concepts such as ‘society of mind’ and notions of subjectivity unbounded by individuals

Method validation and preliminary qualification of pharmacodynamic biomarkers employed to evaluate the clinical efficacy of an antisense compound (AEG35156) targeted to the X-linked inhibitor of apoptosis protein XIAP

Data are presented on pharmacodynamic (PD) method validation and preliminary clinical qualification of three PD biomarker assays. M65 Elisa, which quantitates different forms of circulating cytokeratin 18 (CK18) as putative surrogate markers of both apoptotic and nonapoptotic tumour cell death, was shown to be highly reproducible: calibration curve linearity r2=0.996, mean accuracy >91% and mean precision <3%, n=27. Employing recombinant (r) CK18 and caspase cleaved CK18 (CK18 Asp396 neo-epitope) as external standards, kit to kit reproducibly was <6% (n=19). rCK18 was stable in plasma for 4 months at −20°C and −80°C, for 4 weeks at 4°C and had a half-life of 2.3 days at 37°C. Cytokeratin 18 Asp396 NE, the M30 Apoptosense Elisa assay antigen, was stable in plasma for 6 months at −20°C and −80°C, for 3 months at 4°C, while its half-life at 37°C was 3.8 days. Within-day variations in endogenous plasma concentrations of the M30 and M65 antigens were assessed in two predose blood samples collected from a cohort of 15 ovarian cancer patients receiving carboplatin chemotherapy and were shown to be no greater than the variability associated with methods themselves. Between-day fluctuations in circulating levels of the M30 and M65 antigens and in XIAP mRNA levels measured in peripheral blood mononuclear cells by quantitative (q) RT–PCR were evaluated in two predose blood samples collected with a 5- to 7-day gap from 23 patients with advanced cancer enrolled in a phase I trial. The mean variation between the two pretreatment values ranged from 13 to 14 to 25%, respectively, for M65, M30 and qRT–PCR. These data suggest that the M30 and M65 Elisa's and qRT–PCR as PD biomarker assays have favourable performance characteristics for further investigation in clinical trials of anticancer agents which induce tumour apoptosis/necrosis or knockdown of the anti-apoptotic protein XIAP

ICE COLD ERIC – International collaborative effort on chronic obstructive lung disease: exacerbation risk index cohorts – Study protocol for an international COPD cohort study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) is a systemic disease; morbidity and mortality due to COPD are on the increase, and it has great impact on patients' lives. Most COPD patients are managed by general practitioners (GP). Too often, GPs base their initial assessment of patient's disease severity mainly on lung function. However, lung function correlates poorly with COPD-specific health-related quality of life and exacerbation frequency. A validated COPD disease risk index that better represents the clinical manifestations of COPD and is feasible in primary care seems to be useful. The objective of this study is to develop and validate a practical COPD disease risk index that predicts the clinical course of COPD in primary care patients with GOLD stages 2–4.</p> <p>Methods/Design</p> <p>We will conduct 2 linked prospective cohort studies with COPD patients from GPs in Switzerland and the Netherlands. We will perform a baseline assessment including detailed patient history, questionnaires, lung function, history of exacerbations, measurement of exercise capacity and blood sampling. During the follow-up of at least 2 years, we will update the patients' profile by registering exacerbations, health-related quality of life and any changes in the use of medication. The primary outcome will be health-related quality of life. Secondary outcomes will be exacerbation frequency and mortality. Using multivariable regression analysis, we will identify the best combination of variables predicting these outcomes over one and two years and, depending on funding, even more years.</p> <p>Discussion</p> <p>Despite the diversity of clinical manifestations and available treatments, assessment and management today do not reflect the multifaceted character of the disease. This is in contrast to preventive cardiology where, nowadays, the treatment in primary care is based on patient-specific and fairly refined cardiovascular risk profile corresponding to differences in prognosis. After completion of this study, we will have a practical COPD-disease risk index that predicts the clinical course of COPD in primary care patients with GOLD stages 2–4. In a second step we will incorporate evidence-based treatment effects into this model, such that the instrument may guide physicians in selecting treatment based on the individual patients' prognosis.</p> <p>Trial registration</p> <p>ClinicalTrials.gov Archive NCT00706602</p

Measuring Patient and Clinician Perspectives to Evaluate Change in Health-Related Quality of Life Among Patients with Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease

CONTEXT: Many treatments aim to improve patients’ health-related quality of life (HRQoL), and many care guidelines suggest assessing symptoms and their impact on HRQoL. However, there is a lack of consensus regarding which HRQoL outcome measures are appropriate to assess, and how much change on those measures depict significant HRQoL improvement. OBJECTIVE: We used triangulation methods to identify and understand clinically important differences (CIDs) for the amount of change in HRQoL that reflects both health professionals and patients’ values, among patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: We incorporated three perspectives: (1) an expert panel of physicians familiar with the measurement of HRQoL in COPD patients; (2) 610 primary care COPD outpatients who completed baseline and bimonthly follow-up HRQoL interviews over the 12-month study; and (3) the primary care physicians (PCPs; n = 43) of these outpatients who assessed their patients’ disease at baseline and at subsequent PCP visits during the year long study. MEASUREMENTS: The Chronic Respiratory Disease Questionnaire (CRQ), the Medical Outcomes Study Short Form 36-item survey (SF-36, version 2.0), and global assessments of change from each of the three perspectives for all HRQoL domains. RESULTS: With few exceptions, the CRQ was able to detect small changes at levels reported by the patients (1–2 points) and their PCPs (1–5 points). These results confirm minimal important difference standards developed in 1989 by Jaeschke et al. anchored on patient-perceived changes in HRQoL. In general, the expert panel and PCP CIDs were larger than the patient CIDs. CONCLUSION: This triangulation methodology yielded improved interpretation, understanding, and insights on stakeholder perspectives of CIDs for patient-reported outcomes

CLIPR-59 regulates TNF-α-induced apoptosis by controlling ubiquitination of RIP1

Tumor necrosis factor-α (TNF-α) has important roles in several immunological events by regulating apoptosis and transcriptional activation of cytokine genes. Intracellular signaling mediated by TNF-receptor-type 1 (TNFR1) is constituted by two sequential protein complexes: Complex-I containing the receptor and Complex-II-containing Caspase-8. Protein modifications, particularly ubiquitination, are associated with the regulation of the formation of these complexes. However, the underlying mechanisms remain poorly defined. Here, we identified CLIP-170-related 59 kDa protein (CLIPR-59) as a novel adaptor protein for TNFR1. Experimental reduction of CLIPR-59 levels prevented induction of apoptosis and activation of caspases in the context of TNF-α signaling. CLIPR-59 binds TNFR1 but dissociates in response to TNF-α stimulation. However, CLIPR-59 is also involved in and needed for the formation of Complex-II. Moreover, CLIPR-59 regulates TNF-α-induced ubiquitination of receptor-interacting protein 1 (RIP1) by its association with CYLD, a de-ubiquitinating enzyme. These findings suggest that CLIPR-59 modulates ubiquitination of RIP1, resulting in the formation of Complex-II and thus promoting Caspase-8 activation to induce apoptosis by TNF-α