Mixed signals: central bank independence, coordinated wage bargaining, and European Monetary Union

"Die Konzepte für die Europäische Währungsunion basieren auf dem allgemeinen vertretenden Postulat, dass mit größerer Unabhängigkeit der Zentralbank die Inflation ohne reale ökonomische Effekte verringert werden kann. Allerdings beruht die theoretische wie empirische Basis für diesen Anspruch auf Modellvorstellungen einer Volkswirtschaft, die auf unrealistischen Annahmen der Bedeutung von Informationen beruhen und institutionelle Variablen - mit Ausnahme der Zentralbank - außer acht lassen. Wird allerdings die wechselseitige Wahrnehmung und Interpretation von Informationen ('signaling problems') zwischen Zentralbank und den anderen Akteuren in der politischen Ökonomie in die Analyse einbezogen, dann ist feszustellen, dass die Art der Lohnfindung die Intensität der Auswirkungen der Zentralbankunabhängigkeit beeinflusst je nachdem, wie wirksam der Zentralbank und den Tarifpartnern vermittelt ist. Im Falle koordinierter Tarifverhandlungen kann eine größere Unabhängigkeit der Zentralbank die Inflation in der Tat ohne größere Beschäftigungseffekte vermindern, im Falle unkoordinierter Tarifverhandlungen führt dies allerdings zu einem höheren Niveau der Arbeitslosigkeit. Daraus leitet sich die Überlegung ab, dass eine Währungsunion vom Typ 'Europäische Währungsunion' ein höheres Maß an Arbeitslositkeit einfordert, um die Inflation unter Kontrolle zu halten, als es ihre Befürworter erwarten. Bei den sich dann einstellenden Vor- und Nachteilen werden die Nachteile zwischen und innerhalb der Mitgliedsstaaten ungleich verteilt sein, abhängig von dem letztendlich verwirklichten Grad der Unabhängigkeit der Zentralbank und der Form der Lohnfindung." (Autorenreferat)"Plans for European Monetary Union are based on the conventional postulate that increasing the independence of the central bank can reduce inflation without any real economic effects, However, the theoretical and empirical bases for this claim rest on models of the economy that make unrealistic information assumptions and omit institutional variables other than the central bank. When the signaling problems between the central bank and other actors in the political economy are considered, we find that the character of wage bargaining conditions the impact of central bank independence by rendering the signals between the bank and the bargainers more or less effective. Greater independence can reduce inflation without major employment effects where bargaining is coordinated, but it brings higher levels of unemployment where bargaining is uncoordinated. Thus, currency unions like the EMU may require higher levels of unemployment to control inflation than their proponents envisage; they will have costs as well as benefits, costs which will be distributed unevenly among and within the member nations based on the changes induced in the status of the bank and of wage coordination." (author's abstract

Modeling History Dependence in Network-Behavior Coevolution

Spatial interdependence--the dependence of outcomes in some units on those in others--is substantively and theoretically ubiquitous and central across the social sciences. Spatial association is also omnipresent empirically. However, spatial association may arise from three importantly distinct processes: common exposure of actors to exogenous external and internal stimuli, interdependence of outcomes/behaviors across actors (contagion), and/or the putative outcomes may affect the variable along which the clustering occurs (selection). Accurate inference about any of these processes generally requires an empirical strategy that addresses all three well. From a spatial-econometric perspective, this suggests spatiotemporal empirical models with exogenous covariates (common exposure) and spatial lags (contagion), with the spatial weights being endogenous (selection). From a longitudinal network-analytic perspective, we can identify the same three processes as potential sources of network effects and network formation. From that perspective, actors\u27 self-selection into networks (by, e.g., behavioral homophily) and actors\u27 behavior that is contagious through those network connections likewise demands theoretical and empirical models in which networks and behavior coevolve over time. This paper begins building such modeling by, on the theoretical side, extending a Markov type-interaction model to allow endogenous tie-formation, and, on the empirical side, merging a simple spatial-lag logit model of contagious behavior with a simple p-star logit model of network formation, building this synthetic discrete-time empirical model from the theoretical base of the modified Markov type-interaction model. One interesting consequence of network-behavior coevolution--identically: endogenous patterns of spatial interdependence--emphasized here is how it can produce history-dependent political dynamics, including equilibrium phat and path dependence (Page 2006). The paper explores these implications, and then concludes with a preliminary demonstration of the strategy applied to alliance formation and conflict behavior among the great powers in the first half of the twentieth century

Network Selection and Path-Dependent Coevolution

Scholars have increasingly become aware that actors’ self-selection into networks (e.g., homophily) is an important determinant of network-tie formation. Such self-selection adds methodological complexity to the empirical evaluation of the effects of network ties on individual behavior. Moreover, the endogenous network formation implies that network-tie structures and actors’ behavior “coevolve” over time. Therefore, in longitudinal network studies, it is very crucial for scholars to understand the nature of coevolutionary dynamics in the data, in order to explain the network-formation and the behavioral-decision-making mechanisms accurately. In this project, we claim that one of the most important aspects of the coevolutionary dynamic is its connection with history dependence. By history dependence, we primarily focus on what Page (2006) defines as “phat” and path dependence. We first establish theoretically that systems with coevolution can easily generate multiple equilibria (i.e., the steady states of the system), using a simple Markov type-interaction model that allows for endogenous tie formation. The potential of multiple equilibria posits an important and very difficult empirical question--how sensitive are equilibrium distributions (over types) to the past states? More simply put, to what extent does history matter? What is at stake in this question is not trivial. If history matters for an equilibrium attained in the society, then we can also analyze the potential policy interventions that could change the path of the social process such that it would lead to a socially optimal equilibrium. As for the empirical strategy, we start with developing a discrete-time Markov model, combining a spatial-logit and p-star model to evaluate the empirical significance of coevolutionary dynamics in the data. The strength of this empirical approach is in its direct connection with the theoretical Markov interaction model, and can provide a foundation for developing statistical tests for history dependence generated by coevolution

The do's, don't and don't knows of supporting transition to more independent practice

Introduction: Transitions are traditionally viewed as challenging for clinicians. Throughout medical career pathways, clinicians need to successfully navigate successive transitions as they become progressively more independent practitioners. In these guidelines, we aim to synthesize the evidence from the literature to provide guidance for supporting clinicians in their development of independence, and highlight areas for further research. Methods: Drawing upon D3 method guidance, four key themes universal to medical career transitions and progressive independence were identified by all authors through discussion and consensus from our own experience and expertise: workplace learning, independence and responsibility, mentoring and coaching, and patient perspectives. A scoping review of the literature was conducted using Medline database searches in addition to the authors’ personal archives and reference snowballing searches. Results: 387 articles were identified and screened. 210 were excluded as not relevant to medical transitions (50 at title screen; 160 at abstract screen). 177 full-text articles were assessed for eligibility; a further 107 were rejected (97 did not include career transitions in their study design; 10 were review articles; the primary references of these were screened for inclusion). 70 articles were included of which 60 provided extractable data for the final qualitative synthesis. Across the four key themes, seven do’s, two don’ts and seven don’t knows were identified, and the strength of evidence was graded for each of these recommendations. Conclusion: The two strongest messages arising from current literature are first, transitions should not be viewed as one moment in time: career trajectories are a continuum with valuable opportunities for personal and professional development throughout. Second, learning needs to be embedded in practice and learners provided with authentic and meaningful learning opportunities. In this paper, we propose evidence-based guidelines aimed at facilitating such transitions through the fostering of progressive independence

International Consensus Statement on Allergy and Rhinology: Allergic Rhinitis.

BACKGROUND: Critical examination of the quality and validity of available allergic rhinitis (AR) literature is necessary to improve understanding and to appropriately translate this knowledge to clinical care of the AR patient. To evaluate the existing AR literature, international multidisciplinary experts with an interest in AR have produced the International Consensus statement on Allergy and Rhinology: Allergic Rhinitis (ICAR:AR). METHODS: Using previously described methodology, specific topics were developed relating to AR. Each topic was assigned a literature review, evidence-based review (EBR), or evidence-based review with recommendations (EBRR) format as dictated by available evidence and purpose within the ICAR:AR document. Following iterative reviews of each topic, the ICAR:AR document was synthesized and reviewed by all authors for consensus. RESULTS: The ICAR:AR document addresses over 100 individual topics related to AR, including diagnosis, pathophysiology, epidemiology, disease burden, risk factors for the development of AR, allergy testing modalities, treatment, and other conditions/comorbidities associated with AR. CONCLUSION: This critical review of the AR literature has identified several strengths; providers can be confident that treatment decisions are supported by rigorous studies. However, there are also substantial gaps in the AR literature. These knowledge gaps should be viewed as opportunities for improvement, as often the things that we teach and the medicine that we practice are not based on the best quality evidence. This document aims to highlight the strengths and weaknesses of the AR literature to identify areas for future AR research and improved understanding

International Consensus Statement on Allergy and Rhinology: Allergic Rhinitis

Background: Critical examination of the quality and validity of available allergic rhinitis (AR) literature is necessary to improve understanding and to appropriately translate this knowledge to clinical care of the AR patient. To evaluate the existing AR literature, international multidisciplinary experts with an interest in AR have produced the International Consensus statement on Allergy and Rhinology: Allergic Rhinitis (ICAR:AR).Methods: Using previously described methodology, specific topics were developed relating to AR. Each topic was assigned a literature review, evidence-based review (EBR), or evidence-based review with recommendations (EBRR) format as dictated by available evidence and purpose within the ICAR:AR document. Following iterative reviews of each topic, the ICAR:AR document was synthesized and reviewed by all authors for consensus.Results: The ICAR:AR document addresses over 100 individual topics related to AR, including diagnosis, pathophysiology, epidemiology, disease burden, risk factors for the development of AR, allergy testing modalities, treatment, and other conditions/comorbidities associated with AR.Conclusion: This critical review of the AR literature has identified several strengths; providers can be confident that treatment decisions are supported by rigorous studies. However, there are also substantial gaps in the AR literature. These knowledge gaps should be viewed as opportunities for improvement, as often the things that we teach and the medicine that we practice are not based on the best quality evidence. This document aims to highlight the strengths and weaknesses of the AR literature to identify areas for future AR research and improved understanding. </p