Combination schemes for turning point prediction

We propose new forecast combination schemes for predicting turning points of business cycles. The combination schemes deal with the forecasting performance of a given set of models and possibly providing better turning point predictions. We consider turning point predictions generated by autoregressive (AR) and Markov-Switching AR models, which are commonly used for business cycle analysis. In order to account for parameter uncertainty we consider a Bayesian approach to both estimation and prediction and compare, in terms of statistical accuracy, the individual models and the combined turning point predictions for the United States and Euro area business cycles

Underuse of medication for circulatory disorders among unmarried women and men in Norway?

BACKGROUND: It is well established that unmarried people have higher mortality from circulatory diseases and higher all-cause mortality than the married, and these marital status differences seem to be increasing. However, much remains to be known about the underlying mechanisms. Our objective was to examine marital status differences in the purchase of medication for circulatory diseases, and risk factors for them, which may indicate underuse of such medication by some marital status groups. METHODS: Using data from registers covering the entire Norwegian population, we analysed marital status differences in the purchase of medicine for eight circulatory disorders by people aged 50-79 in 2004-2008. These differences were compared with those in circulatory disease mortality during 2004-2007, considered as indicating probable differences in disease burden. RESULTS: The unmarried had 1.4-2.8 times higher mortality from the four types of circulatory diseases considered. However, the never-married in particular purchased less medicine for these diseases, or precursor risk factors of these diseases, primarily because of a low chance of making a first purchase. The picture was more mixed for the divorced and widowed. Both groups purchased less of some of these medicines than the married, but, especially in the case of the widowed, relatively more of other types of medicine. In contrast to the never-married, divorced and widowed people were as least as likely as the married to make a first purchase, but adherence rates thereafter, indicated by continuing purchases, were lower. CONCLUSION: The most plausible interpretation of the findings is that compared with married people, especially the never-married more often have circulatory disorders that are undiagnosed or for which they for other reasons underuse medication. Inadequate use of these potentially very efficient medicines in such a large population group is a serious public health challenge which needs further investigation. It is possible that marital status differences in use of medicines for circulatory disorders combined with an increasing importance of these medicines have contributed to the widening marital status gap in mortality observed in several countries. This also requires further investigation

Seasonal Pattern of Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis Infection and Mortality in Lithobates areolatus: Affirmation of Vredenburg's “10,000 Zoospore Rule”

To fully comprehend chytridiomycosis, the amphibian disease caused by the chytrid fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd), it is essential to understand how Bd affects amphibians throughout their remarkable range of life histories. Crawfish Frogs (Lithobates areolatus) are a typical North American pond-breeding species that forms explosive spring breeding aggregations in seasonal and semipermanent wetlands. But unlike most species, when not breeding Crawfish Frogs usually live singly—in nearly total isolation from conspecifics—and obligately in burrows dug by crayfish. Crayfish burrows penetrate the water table, and therefore offer Crawfish Frogs a second, permanent aquatic habitat when not breeding. Over the course of two years we sampled for the presence of Bd in Crawfish Frog adults. Sampling was conducted seasonally, as animals moved from post-winter emergence through breeding migrations, then back into upland burrow habitats. During our study, 53% of Crawfish Frog breeding adults tested positive for Bd in at least one sample; 27% entered breeding wetlands Bd positive; 46% exited wetlands Bd positive. Five emigrating Crawfish Frogs (12%) developed chytridiomycosis and died. In contrast, all 25 adult frogs sampled while occupying upland crayfish burrows during the summer tested Bd negative. One percent of postmetamorphic juveniles sampled were Bd positive. Zoospore equivalents/swab ranged from 0.8 to 24,436; five out of eight frogs with zoospore equivalents near or >10,000 are known to have died. In summary, Bd infection rates in Crawfish Frog populations ratchet up from near zero during the summer to over 25% following overwintering; rates then nearly double again during and just after breeding—when mortality occurs—before the infection wanes during the summer. Bd-negative postmetamorphic juveniles may not be exposed again to this pathogen until they take up residence in crayfish burrows, or until their first breeding, some years later

Identification of modifiable factors associated with owner-reported equine laminitis in Britain using a web-based cohort study approach

Equine laminitis is a complex disease that manifests as pain and lameness in the feet, often with debilitating consequences. There is a paucity of data that accounts for the multifactorial nature of laminitis and considers time-varying covariates that may be associated with disease development; particularly those that are modifiable and present potential interventions. A previous case-control study identified a number of novel, modifiable factors associated with laminitis which warranted further investigation and corroboration. The aim of this study was to identify factors associated with equine laminitis in horses/ponies in Great Britain (GB) using a prospective, web-based cohort study design, with particular interest in evaluating modifiable factors previously identified in the case-control study

FoxO and Stress Responses in the Cnidarian Hydra vulgaris

Background: In the face of changing environmental conditions, the mechanisms underlying stress responses in diverse organisms are of increasing interest. In vertebrates, Drosophila, and Caenorhabditis elegans, FoxO transcription factors mediate cellular responses to stress, including oxidative stress and dietary restriction. Although FoxO genes have been identified in early-arising animal lineages including sponges and cnidarians, little is known about their roles in these organisms. Methods/Principal Findings: We have examined the regulation of FoxO activity in members of the well-studied cnidarian genus Hydra. We find that Hydra FoxO is expressed at high levels in cells of the interstitial lineage, a cell lineage that includes multipotent stem cells that give rise to neurons, stinging cells, secretory cells and gametes. Using transgenic Hydra that express a FoxO-GFP fusion protein in cells of the interstitial lineage, we have determined that heat shock causes localization of the fusion protein to the nucleus. Our results also provide evidence that, as in bilaterian animals, Hydra FoxO activity is regulated by both Akt and JNK kinases. Conclusions: These findings imply that basic mechanisms of FoxO regulation arose before the evolution of bilaterians an