The Effect of Plasma Profile Variation on the Stability of the n = 1 Internal Kink Mode in Rotating Tokamak Plasmas

The sensitivity of the stability of the ideal n = 1 internal kink mode to variations in the plasma profiles is analysed both analytically and numerically in rotating tokamak plasmas. These stability analyses have been carried out including the centrifugal effects of toroidal plasma rotation upon the equilibrium, and also inconsistently when the equilibrium is treated as static. The change in plasma stability due to rotation is partially (consistent equilibrium) or wholly (inconsistent treatment) determined by the radial profiles of the plasma density and rotation velocity. It is found that the internal kink mode stability is strongly influenced by small variations in these plasma profiles. The implications of this extreme sensitivity are discussed, with particular reference to experimental data from MAST

Saturated ideal modes in advanced tokamak regimes in MAST

MAST plasmas with a safety factor above unity and a profile with either weakly reversed shear or broad low-shear regions, regularly exhibit long-lived saturated ideal magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) instabilities. The toroidal rotation is flattened in the presence of such perturbations and the fast ion losses are enhanced. These ideal modes, distinguished as such by the notable lack of islands or signs of reconnection, are driven unstable as the safety factor approaches unity. This could be of significance for advanced scenarios, or hybrid scenarios which aim to keep the safety factor just above rational surfaces associated with deleterious resistive MHD instabilities, especially in spherical tokamaks which are more susceptible to such ideal internal modes. The role of rotation, fast ions and ion diamagnetic effects in determining the marginal mode stability is discussed, as well as the role of instabilities with higher toroidal mode numbers as the safety factor evolves to lower values

A Recurrent Neural Network Survival Model: Predicting Web User Return Time

The size of a website's active user base directly affects its value. Thus, it is important to monitor and influence a user's likelihood to return to a site. Essential to this is predicting when a user will return. Current state of the art approaches to solve this problem come in two flavors: (1) Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) based solutions and (2) survival analysis methods. We observe that both techniques are severely limited when applied to this problem. Survival models can only incorporate aggregate representations of users instead of automatically learning a representation directly from a raw time series of user actions. RNNs can automatically learn features, but can not be directly trained with examples of non-returning users who have no target value for their return time. We develop a novel RNN survival model that removes the limitations of the state of the art methods. We demonstrate that this model can successfully be applied to return time prediction on a large e-commerce dataset with a superior ability to discriminate between returning and non-returning users than either method applied in isolation.Comment: Accepted into ECML PKDD 2018; 8 figures and 1 tabl

Black Holes in Modified Gravity (MOG)

The field equations for Scalar-Tensor-Vector-Gravity (STVG) or modified gravity (MOG) have a static, spherically symmetric black hole solution determined by the mass $M$ with two horizons. The strength of the gravitational constant is $G=G_N(1+\alpha)$ where $\alpha$ is a parameter. A regular singularity-free MOG solution is derived using a nonlinear field dynamics for the repulsive gravitational field component and a reasonable physical energy-momentum tensor. The Kruskal-Szekeres completion of the MOG black hole solution is obtained. The Kerr-MOG black hole solution is determined by the mass $M$, the parameter $\alpha$ and the spin angular momentum $J=Ma$. The equations of motion and the stability condition of a test particle orbiting the MOG black hole are derived, and the radius of the black hole photosphere and the shadows cast by the Schwarzschild-MOG and Kerr-MOG black holes are calculated. A traversable wormhole solution is constructed with a throat stabilized by the repulsive component of the gravitational field.Comment: 14 pages, 3 figures. Upgraded version of paper to match published version in European Physics Journal

Competing risks survival analysis applied to data from the Australian Orthopaedic Association National Joint Replacement Registry

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: The Kaplan-Meier (KM) method is often used in the analysis of arthroplasty registry data to estimate the probability of revision after a primary procedure. In the presence of a competing risk such as death, KM is known to overestimate the probability of revision. We investigated the degree to which the risk of revision is overestimated in registry data. PATIENTS AND METHODS: We compared KM estimates of risk of revision with the cumulative incidence function (CIF), which takes account of death as a competing risk. We considered revision by (1) prosthesis type in subjects aged 75–84 years with fractured neck of femur (FNOF), (2) cement use in monoblock prostheses for FNOF, and (3) age group in patients undergoing total hip arthroplasty (THA) for osteoarthritis (OA). RESULTS: In 5,802 subjects aged 75–84 years with a monoblock prosthesis for FNOF, the estimated risk of revision at 5 years was 6.3% by KM and 4.3% by CIF, a relative difference (RD) of 46%. In 9,821 subjects of all ages receiving an Austin Moore (non-cemented) prosthesis for FNOF, the RD at 5 years was 52% and for 3,116 subjects with a Thompson (cemented) prosthesis, the RD was 79%. In 44,365 subjects with a THA for OA who were less than 70 years old, the RD was just 1.4%; for 47,430 subjects > 70 years of age, the RD was 4.6% at 5 years. INTERPRETATION: The Kaplan-Meier method substantially overestimated the risk of revision compared to estimates using competing risk methods when the risk of death was high. The bias increased with time as the incidence of the competing risk of death increased. Registries should adopt methods of analysis appropriate to the nature of their data.Marianne H. Gillam, Philip Ryan, Stephen E. Graves, Lisa N. Miller, Richard N. de Steiger and Amy Salte

Glow discharge in low pressure plasma PVD: mathematical model and numerical simulations

In this paper we analyze the problem of glow discharge in low pressure plasma in industrial plant, for chambers of different shapes and various working parameters, like pressure and electric potential. The model described is based upon a static approximation of the AC configuration with two electrodes and a drift diffusion approximation for the current density of positive ions and electrons. A detailed discussion of the boundary conditions imposed is given, as well as the full description of the mathematical model. Numerical simulations were performed for a simple 1D model and two different 2D models, corresponding to two different settings of the industrial plant. The simpler case consists of a radially symmetric chamber, with one central electrode (cathode), based upon a DC generator. In this case, the steel chamber acts as the anode. The second model concerns a two dimensional horizontal cut of the most common plant configuration, with two electrodes connected to an AC generator. The case is treated in a "quasi-static" approximation. The three models show some common behaviours, particularly including the main expected features, such as dark spaces, glow regions and a wide "plasma region". Furthermore, the three shown models show some similarities with previously published results concerning 1D and simplified 2D models, as well as with some preliminary results of the full 3D case.Comment: 16 pages, 11 figures, in pres

Discourses of student orientation to medical education programs

Background: Although medical students’ initial orientation is an important point of transition in medical education, there is a paucity of literature on the subject and major variations in the ways that different institutions orient incoming medical students to their programs. Methods: We conducted a discourse analysis of medical education orientation in the literature and on data from a survey of peer institutions’ approaches to orientation. Results: These two discourses of orientation had clear similarities, in particular, the critical role of ceremony and symbols, and the focus on developing professionalism and physician identities. There were also differences between them, in particular, in the way that the discourse in the literature focused on the symbolic and professional aspects of orientation; something we have called ‘cultural orientation’. Meanwhile, those who were responsible for orientation in their own institutions tended to focus on the practical and social dimensions. Conclusion: By examining how orientation has been described and discussed, we identify three domains of orientation: cultural, social, and practical. These domains are relatively distinct in terms of the activities associated with them, and in terms of who is involved in organizing and running these activities. We also describe orientation as a liminal activity system on the threshold of medical school where incoming students initially cross into the profession. Interestingly, this state of ambiguity also extends to the scholarship of orientation with only some of its aspects attracting formal enquiry, even though there is a growing interest in transitions in medical education as a whole. We hope, therefore, that this study can help to legitimize enquiry into orientation in all its forms and that it can begin to situate the role of orientation more firmly within the firmament of medical education practice and research

Multi-state models and arthroplasty histories after unilateral total hip arthroplasties: Introducing the Summary Notation for Arthroplasty Histories

Background and purpose: An increasing number of patients have several joint replacement procedures during their lifetime. We investigated the use and suitability of multi-state model techniques in providing a more comprehensive analysis and description of complex arthroplasty histories held in arthroplasty registries than are allowed for with traditional survival methods. Patients and methods: We obtained data from the Australian Orthopaedic Association National Joint Replacement Registry on patients (n = 84,759) who had undergone a total hip arthroplasty for osteoarthritis in the period 2002–2008. We set up a multi-state model where patients were followed from their first recorded arthroplasty to several possible states: revision of first arthroplasty, either a hip or knee as second arthroplasty, revision of the second arthroplasty, and death. The Summary Notation for Arthroplasty Histories (SNAH) was developed in order to help to manage and analyze this type of data. Results: At the end of the study period, 12% of the 84,759 patients had received a second hip, 3 times as many as had received a knee. The estimated probabilities of having received a second arthroplasty decreased with age. Males had a lower transition rate for receiving a second arthroplasty, but a higher mortality rate. Interpretation: Multi-state models in combination with SNAH codes are well suited to the management and analysis of arthroplasty registry data on patients who experience multiple joint procedures over time. We found differences in the progression of joint replacement procedures after the initial total hip arthroplasty regarding type of joint, age, and sex.Marianne H Gillam, Philip Ryan, Amy Salter, Stephen E Grave

Declining Burden of Malaria Over two Decades in a Rural Community of Muheza District, North-Eastern Tanzania.

The recently reported declining burden of malaria in some African countries has been attributed to scaling-up of different interventions although in some areas, these changes started before implementation of major interventions. This study assessed the long-term trends of malaria burden for 20 years (1992--2012) in Magoda and for 15 years in Mpapayu village of Muheza district, north-eastern Tanzania, in relation to different interventions as well as changing national malaria control policies.\ud Repeated cross-sectional surveys recruited individuals aged 0 -- 19 years from the two villages whereby blood smears were collected for detection of malaria parasites by microscopy. Prevalence of Plasmodium falciparum infections and other indices of malaria burden (prevalence of anaemia, splenomegaly and gametocytes) were compared across the years and between the study villages. Major interventions deployed including mobile clinic, bed nets and other research activities, and changes in national malaria control policies were also marked. In Magoda, the prevalence of P. falciparum infections initially decreased between 1992 and 1996 (from 83.5 to 62.0%), stabilized between 1996 and 1997, and further declined to 34.4% in 2004. A temporary increase between 2004 and 2008 was followed by a progressive decline to 7.2% in 2012, which is more than 10-fold decrease since 1992. In Mpapayu (from 1998), the highest prevalence was 81.5% in 1999 and it decreased to 25% in 2004. After a slight increase in 2008, a steady decline followed, reaching <5% from 2011 onwards. Bed net usage was high in both villages from 1999 to 2004 (>=88%) but it decreased between 2008 and 2012 (range, 28% - 68%). After adjusting for the effects of bed nets, age, fever and year of study, the risk of P. falciparum infections decreased significantly by >=97% in both villages between 1999 and 2012 (p < 0.001). The prevalence of splenomegaly (>40% to <1%) and gametocytes (23% to <1%) also decreased in both villages.Discussion and conclusionsA remarkable decline in the burden of malaria occurred between 1992 and 2012 and the initial decline (1992 -- 2004) was most likely due to deployment of interventions, such as bed nets, and better services through research activities. Apart from changes of drug policies, the steady decline observed from 2008 occurred when bed net coverage was low suggesting that other factors contributed to the most recent pattern. These results suggest that continued monitoring is required to determine causes of the changing malaria epidemiology and also to monitor the progress towards maintaining low malaria transmission and reaching related millennium development goals