Evaluating heterogeneity in cumulative meta-analyses

BACKGROUND: Recently developed measures such as I(2 )and H allow the evaluation of the impact of heterogeneity in conventional meta-analyses. There has been no examination of the development of heterogeneity in the context of a cumulative meta-analysis. METHODS: Cumulative meta-analyses of five smoking cessation interventions (clonidine, nicotine replacement therapy using gum and patch, physician advice and acupuncture) were used to calculate I(2 )and H. These values were plotted by year of publication, control event rate and sample size to trace the development of heterogeneity over these covariates. RESULTS: The cumulative evaluation of heterogeneity varied according to the measure of heterogeneity used and the basis of cumulation. Plots produced from the calculations revealed areas of heterogeneity useful in the consideration of potential sources for further study. CONCLUSION: The examination of heterogeneity in conjunction with summary effect estimates in a cumulative meta-analysis offered valuable insight into the evolution of variation. Such information is not available in the context of conventional meta-analysis and has the potential to lead to the development of a richer picture of the effectiveness of interventions

The Number of Patients and Events Required to Limit the Risk of Overestimation of Intervention Effects in Meta-Analysis—A Simulation Study

BACKGROUND: Meta-analyses including a limited number of patients and events are prone to yield overestimated intervention effect estimates. While many assume bias is the cause of overestimation, theoretical considerations suggest that random error may be an equal or more frequent cause. The independent impact of random error on meta-analyzed intervention effects has not previously been explored. It has been suggested that surpassing the optimal information size (i.e., the required meta-analysis sample size) provides sufficient protection against overestimation due to random error, but this claim has not yet been validated. METHODS: We simulated a comprehensive array of meta-analysis scenarios where no intervention effect existed (i.e., relative risk reduction (RRR) = 0%) or where a small but possibly unimportant effect existed (RRR = 10%). We constructed different scenarios by varying the control group risk, the degree of heterogeneity, and the distribution of trial sample sizes. For each scenario, we calculated the probability of observing overestimates of RRR>20% and RRR>30% for each cumulative 500 patients and 50 events. We calculated the cumulative number of patients and events required to reduce the probability of overestimation of intervention effect to 10%, 5%, and 1%. We calculated the optimal information size for each of the simulated scenarios and explored whether meta-analyses that surpassed their optimal information size had sufficient protection against overestimation of intervention effects due to random error. RESULTS: The risk of overestimation of intervention effects was usually high when the number of patients and events was small and this risk decreased exponentially over time as the number of patients and events increased. The number of patients and events required to limit the risk of overestimation depended considerably on the underlying simulation settings. Surpassing the optimal information size generally provided sufficient protection against overestimation. CONCLUSIONS: Random errors are a frequent cause of overestimation of intervention effects in meta-analyses. Surpassing the optimal information size will provide sufficient protection against overestimation

Body size in early life and risk of epithelial ovarian cancer: results from the Nurses' Health Studies

Adult body mass index (BMI) has been associated with ovarian cancer risk, but few studies have examined body size earlier in life. We prospectively examined associations of body fatness at ages 5 and 10, BMI at age 18, height, and birthweight with risk of epithelial ovarian cancer in the Nurses' Health Study (NHS: 110 311 women, 735 cases) and Nurses' Health Study II (NHSII: 113 059 women, 137 cases). Cox proportional hazards regression was used to estimate relative risks (RRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). There was a weak inverse association between average body fatness at ages 5 and 10 and risk in the NHS (RR for heaviest vs most lean=0.81, 95% CI: 0.53–1.24, P for trend=0.04) and a nonsignificant positive association in the NHSII (RR=2.09, 95% CI: 0.98–4.48, P for trend=0.10), possibly due to differences in age and menopausal status. Height was positively associated with risk in both cohorts (RR for ⩾1.75 vs <1.6 m=1.43, 95% CI: 1.05–1.96, P for trend=0.001). Body mass index at the age of 18 years and birthweight were not associated with risk. Further research should examine the biological mechanisms underlying the observed associations

Sugar-sweetened carbonated beverage consumption correlates with BMI, waist circumference, and poor dietary choices in school children

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The prevalence of obesity and overweight is increasing globally. Frequently coexisting with under-nutrition in developing countries, obesity is a major contributor to chronic disease, and will become a serious healthcare burden especially in countries with a larger percentage of youthful population. 35% of the population of Saudi Arabia are under the age of 16, and adult dietary preferences are often established during early childhood years. Our objective was to examine the dietary habits in relation to body-mass-index (BMI) and waist circumference (W_C), together with exercise and sleep patterns in a cohort of male and female Saudi school children, in order to ascertain whether dietary patterns are associated with obesity phenotypes in this population.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>5033 boys and 4400 girls aged 10 to 19 years old participated in a designed Food Frequency Questionnaire. BMI and W_C measurements were obtained and correlated with dietary intake.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The overall prevalence of overweight and obesity was 12.2% and 27.0% respectively, with boys having higher obesity rates than girls (P ≤ 0.001). W_C and BMI was positively correlated with sugar-sweetened carbonated beverage (SSCB) intake in boys only. The association between male BMI and SSCB consumption was significant in a multivariate regression model (P < 0.0001). SSCB intake was positively associated with poor dietary choices in both males and females. Fast food meal intake, savory snacks, iced desserts and total sugar consumption correlated with SSCB intake in both boys (r = 0.39, 0.13, 0.10 and 0.52 respectively, P < 0.001) and girls (r = 0.45, 0.23, 0.16 and 0.55 respectively, P < 0.001). Older children reported eating significantly less fruit and vegetables than younger children; and less eggs, fish and cereals. Conversely, consumption of SSCB and sugar-sweetened hot beverages were higher in older versus younger children (P < 0.001). BMI and W_C were negatively correlated with hours of night-time sleep and exercise in boys, but only with night time sleep in girls, who also showed the lowest frequency of exercise.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>A higher intake of SSCB is associated with poor dietary choices. Male SSCB intake correlates with a higher W_C and BMI. Limiting exposure to SSCB could therefore have a large public health impact.</p

Associations between Screen Time and Physical Activity among Spanish Adolescents

Excessive time in front of a single or several screens could explain a displacement of physical activity. The present study aimed at determining whether screen-time is associated with a reduced level of moderate to vigorous physical activity (MVPA) in Spanish adolescents living in favorable environmental conditions. or more to total screen-time showed a 64% (OR = 0.61, 95% CI, 0.44–0.86) increased risk of failing to achieve the recommended adolescent MVPA level. Participation in organized physical activities and sports competitions were more strongly associated with MVPA than screen-related behaviors.No single screen-related behavior explained the reduction of MVPA in adolescents. However, the total time accumulated through several screen-related behaviors was negatively associated with MVPA level in boys. This association could be due to lower availability of time for exercise as the time devoted to sedentary screen-time activities increases. Participation in organized physical activities seems to counteract the negative impact of excessive time in front of screens on physical activity

Heritable breast cancer in twins

Known major mutations such as BRCA1/2 and TP53 only cause a small proportion of heritable breast cancers. Co-dominant genes of lower penetrance that regulate hormones have been thought responsible for most others. Incident breast cancer cases in the identical (monozygotic) twins of representative cases reflect the entire range of pertinent alleles, whether acting singly or in combination. Having reported the rate in twins and other relatives of cases to be high and nearly constant over age, we now examine the descriptive and histological characteristics of the concordant and discordant breast cancers occurring in 2310 affected pairs of monozygotic and fraternal (dizygotic) twins in relation to conventional expectations and hypotheses. Like other first-degree relatives, dizygotic co-twins of breast cancer cases are at higher than usual risk (standardised incidence ratio (SIR)=1.7, CI=1.1–2.6), but the additional cases among monozygotic co-twins of cases are much more numerous, both before and after menopause (SIR=4.4, CI=3.6–5.6), than the 100% genetic identity would predict. Monozygotic co-twin diagnoses following early proband cancers also occur more rapidly than expected (within 5 years, SIR=20.0, CI=7.5–53.3). Cases in concordant pairs represent heritable disease and are significantly more likely to be oestrogen receptor-positive than those of comparable age from discordant pairs. The increase in risk to the monozygotic co-twins of cases cannot be attributed to the common environment, to factors that cumulate with age, or to any aggregate of single autosomal dominant mutations. The genotype more plausibly consists of multiple co-existing susceptibility alleles acting through heightened susceptibility to hormones and/or defective tumour suppression. The resultant class of disease accounts for a larger proportion of all breast cancers than previously thought, with a rather high overall penetrance. Some of the biological characteristics differ from those of breast cancer generally

Evidence at a glance: error matrix approach for overviewing available evidence

Contains fulltext : 88651.pdf (publisher's version ) (Open Access)BACKGROUND: Clinical evidence continues to expand and is increasingly difficult to overview. We aimed at conceptualizing a visual assessment tool, i.e., a matrix for overviewing studies and their data in order to assess the clinical evidence at a glance. METHODS: A four-step matrix was constructed using the three dimensions of systematic error, random error, and design error. Matrix step I ranks the identified studies according to the dimensions of systematic errors and random errors. Matrix step II orders the studies according to the design errors. Matrix step III assesses the three dimensions of errors in studies. Matrix step IV assesses the size and direction of the intervention effect. RESULTS: The application of this four-step matrix is illustrated with two examples: peri-operative beta-blockade initialized in relation to surgery versus placebo for major non-cardiac surgery, and antiarrhythmics for maintaining sinus rhythm after cardioversion of atrial fibrillation. When clinical evidence is deemed both internally and externally valid, the size of the intervention effect is to be assessed. CONCLUSION: The error matrix provides an overview of the validity of the available evidence at a glance, and may assist in deciding which interventions to use in clinical practice

Previous Lung Diseases and Lung Cancer Risk: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

In order to review the epidemiologic evidence concerning previous lung diseases as risk factors for lung cancer, a meta-analysis and systematic review was conducted.Relevant studies were identified through MEDLINE searches. Using random effects models, summary effects of specific previous conditions were evaluated separately and combined. Stratified analyses were conducted based on smoking status, gender, control sources and continent.A previous history of COPD, chronic bronchitis or emphysema conferred relative risks (RR) of 2.22 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.66, 2.97) (from 16 studies), 1.52 (95% CI: 1.25, 1.84) (from 23 studies) and 2.04 (95% CI: 1.72, 2.41) (from 20 studies), respectively, and for all these diseases combined 1.80 (95% CI: 1.60, 2.11) (from 39 studies). The RR of lung cancer for subjects with a previous history of pneumonia was 1.43 (95% CI: 1.22-1.68) (from 22 studies) and for subjects with a previous history of tuberculosis was 1.76 (95% CI=1.49, 2.08), (from 30 studies). Effects were attenuated when restricting analysis to never smokers only for COPD/emphysema/chronic bronchitis (RR=1.22, 0.97-1.53), however remained significant for pneumonia 1.36 (95% CI: 1.10, 1.69) (from 8 studies) and tuberculosis 1.90 (95% CI: 1.45, 2.50) (from 11 studies).Previous lung diseases are associated with an increased risk of lung cancer with the evidence among never smokers supporting a direct relationship between previous lung diseases and lung cancer