Prediction of outcome of early ER+ breast cancer is improved using a biomarker panel, which includes Ki-67 and p53

BACKGROUND: The aim of this study is to determine whether immunohistochemical (IHC) assessment of Ki67 and p53 improves prognostication of oestrogen receptor-positive (ER+) breast cancer after breast-conserving therapy (BCT). In all, 498 patients with invasive breast cancer from a randomised trial of BCT with or without tumour bed radiation boost were assessed using IHC. METHODS: The ER+ tumours were classified as ‘luminal A' (LA): ER+ and/or PR+, Ki-67 low, p53−, HER2− or ‘luminal B' (LB): ER+ and/or PR+and/or Ki-67 high and/or p53+ and/or HER2+. Kaplan–Meier and Cox proportional hazards methodology were used to ascertain relationships to ispilateral breast tumour recurrence (IBTR), locoregional recurrence (LRR), distant metastasis-free survival (DMFS) and breast cancer-specific survival (BCSS). RESULTS: In all, 73 patients previously LA were re-classified as LB: a greater than four-fold increase (4.6–19.3%) compared with ER, PR, HER2 alone. In multivariate analysis, the LB signature independently predicted LRR (hazard ratio (HR) 3.612, 95% CI 1.555–8.340, P=0.003), DMFS (HR 3.023, 95% CI 1.501–6.087, P=0.002) and BCSS (HR 3.617, 95% CI 1.629–8.031, P=0.002) but not IBTR. CONCLUSION: The prognostic evaluation of ER+ breast cancer is improved using a marker panel, which includes Ki-67 and p53. This may help better define a group of poor prognosis ER+ patients with a greater probability of failure with endocrine therapy