Tamoxifen resistance in early breast cancer: statistical modelling of tissue markers to improve risk prediction

BACKGROUND: For over two decades, the Nottingham Prognostic Index (NPI) has been used in the United Kingdom to calculate risk scores and inform management about breast cancer patients. It is derived using just three clinical variables - nodal involvement, tumour size and grade. New scientific methods now make cost-effective measurement of many biological characteristics of tumour tissue from breast cancer biopsy samples possible. However, the number of potential explanatory variables to be considered presents a statistical challenge. The aim of this study was to investigate whether in ER+ tamoxifen-treated breast cancer patients, biological variables can add value to NPI predictors, to provide improved prognostic stratification in terms of overall recurrence-free survival (RFS) and also in terms of remaining recurrence free while on tamoxifen treatment (RFoT). A particular goal was to enable the discrimination of patients with a very low risk of recurrence. METHODS: Tissue samples of 401 cases were analysed by microarray technology, providing biomarker data for 72 variables in total, from AKT, BAD, HER, MTOR, PgR, MAPK and RAS families. Only biomarkers screened as potentially informative (i.e., exhibiting univariate association with recurrence) were offered to the multivariate model. The multiple imputation method was used to deal with missing values, and bootstrap sampling was used to assess internal validity and refine the model. RESULTS: Neither the RFS nor RFoT models derived included Grade, but both had better predictive and discrimination ability than NPI. A slight difference was observed between models in terms of biomarkers included, and, in particular, the RFoT model alone included HER2. The estimated 7-year RFS rates in the lowest-risk groups by RFS and RFoT models were 95 and 97%, respectively, whereas the corresponding rate for the lowest-risk group of NPI was 89%. CONCLUSION: The findings demonstrate considerable potential for improved prognostic modelling by incorporation of biological variables into risk prediction. In particular, the ability to identify a low-risk group with minimal risk of recurrence is likely to have clinical appeal. With larger data sets and longer follow-up, this modelling approach has the potential to enhance an understanding of the interplay of biological characteristics, treatment and cancer recurrence. British Journal of Cancer (2010) 102, 1503 - 1510. doi:10.1038/sj.bjc.6605627 www.bjcancer.co

HER2/neu overexpression in the development of muscle-invasive transitional cell carcinoma of the bladder

The mortality from transitional cell carcinoma (TCC) of the urinary bladder increases significantly with the progression of superficial or locally invasive disease (pTa/pT1) to detrusor muscle-invasive disease (pT2+). The most common prognostic markers in clinical use are tumour stage and grade, which are subject to considerable intra- and interobserver variation. Polysomy 17 and HER2/neu gene amplification and protein overexpression have been associated with more advanced disease. Standardised techniques of fluorescence in situ hybridisation and immunohistochemistry, which are currently applied to other cancers with a view to offering anti-HER2/neu therapies, were applied to tumour pairs comprising pre- and postinvasive disease from 25 patients undergoing treatment for bladder cancer. In the preinvasive tumours, increased HER2/neu copy number was observed in 76% of cases and increased chromosome 17 copy number in 88% of cases, and in the postinvasive group these values were 92 and 96%, respectively (not significantly different P=0.09 and 0.07, respectively). HER2 gene amplification rates were 8% in both groups. Protein overexpression rates were 76 and 52%, respectively, in the pre- and postinvasive groups (P=0.06). These results suggest that HER2/neu abnormalities occur prior to and persist with the onset of muscle-invasive disease. Gene amplification is uncommon and other molecular mechanisms must account for the high rates of protein overexpression. Anti-HER2/neu therapy might be of use in the treatment of TCC

The role of Herceptin in early breast cancer

Herceptin is widely regarded as the most important development in the treatment of breast cancer since Tamoxifen and the development of the multidisciplinary team (MDT). It is particularly exciting from an oncological polint of view as it represents success in the emerging field of specific targeted therapies to specific molecular abnormalities in tumour cells. This review will focus on the nature of the Her2 overexpression and the role of herceptin in the treatment of early breast cancer

Predator-induced changes of female mating preferences: innate and experiential effects

Background: In many species males face a higher predation risk than females because males display elaborate traits that evolved under sexual selection, which may attract not only females but also predators. Females are, therefore, predicted to avoid such conspicuous males under predation risk. The present study was designed to investigate predator-induced changes of female mating preferences in Atlantic mollies (Poecilia mexicana). Males of this species show a pronounced polymorphism in body size and coloration, and females prefer large, colorful males in the absence of predators. Results: In dichotomous choice tests predator-naïve (lab-reared) females altered their initial preference for larger males in the presence of the cichlid Cichlasoma salvini, a natural predator of P. mexicana, and preferred small males instead. This effect was considerably weaker when females were confronted visually with the non-piscivorous cichlid Vieja bifasciata or the introduced non-piscivorous Nile tilapia (Oreochromis niloticus). In contrast, predator experienced (wild-caught) females did not respond to the same extent to the presence of a predator, most likely due to a learned ability to evaluate their predators' motivation to prey. Conclusions: Our study highlights that (a) predatory fish can have a profound influence on the expression of mating preferences of their prey (thus potentially affecting the strength of sexual selection), and females may alter their mate choice behavior strategically to reduce their own exposure to predators. (b) Prey species can evolve visual predator recognition mechanisms and alter their mate choice only when a natural predator is present. (c) Finally, experiential effects can play an important role, and prey species may learn to evaluate the motivational state of their predators. Keywords: Sexual selection; female choice; non-independent mate choice; predator recognition; Poecilia mexican

Increasing the dose intensity of chemotherapy by more frequent administration or sequential scheduling: a patient-level meta-analysis of 37 298 women with early breast cancer in 26 randomised trials

Background Increasing the dose intensity of cytotoxic therapy by shortening the intervals between cycles, or by giving individual drugs sequentially at full dose rather than in lower-dose concurrent treatment schedules, might enhance efficacy. Methods To clarify the relative benefits and risks of dose-intense and standard-schedule chemotherapy in early breast cancer, we did an individual patient-level meta-analysis of trials comparing 2-weekly versus standard 3-weekly schedules, and of trials comparing sequential versus concurrent administration of anthracycline and taxane chemotherapy. The primary outcomes were recurrence and breast cancer mortality. Standard intention-to-treat log-rank analyses, stratified by age, nodal status, and trial, yielded dose-intense versus standard-schedule first-event rate ratios (RRs). Findings Individual patient data were provided for 26 of 33 relevant trials identified, comprising 37 298 (93%) of 40 070 women randomised. Most women were aged younger than 70 years and had node-positive disease. Total cytotoxic drug usage was broadly comparable in the two treatment arms; colony-stimulating factor was generally used in the more dose-intense arm. Combining data from all 26 trials, fewer breast cancer recurrences were seen with dose-intense than with standard-schedule chemotherapy (10-year recurrence risk 28·0% vs 31·4%; RR 0·86, 95% CI 0·82–0·89; p<0·0001). 10-year breast cancer mortality was similarly reduced (18·9% vs 21·3%; RR 0·87, 95% CI 0·83–0·92; p<0·0001), as was all-cause mortality (22·1% vs 24·8%; RR 0·87, 95% CI 0·83–0·91; p<0·0001). Death without recurrence was, if anything, lower with dose-intense than with standard-schedule chemotherapy (10-year risk 4·1% vs 4·6%; RR 0·88, 95% CI 0·78–0·99; p=0·034). Recurrence reductions were similar in the seven trials (n=10 004) that compared 2-weekly chemotherapy with the same chemotherapy given 3-weekly (10-year risk 24·0% vs 28·3%; RR 0·83, 95% CI 0·76–0·91; p<0·0001), in the six trials (n=11 028) of sequential versus concurrent anthracycline plus taxane chemotherapy (28·1% vs 31·3%; RR 0·87, 95% CI 0·80–0·94; p=0·0006), and in the six trials (n=6532) testing both shorter intervals and sequential administration (30·4% vs 35·0%; RR 0·82, 95% CI 0·74–0·90; p<0·0001). The proportional reductions in recurrence with dose-intense chemotherapy were similar and highly significant (p<0·0001) in oestrogen receptor (ER)-positive and ER-negative disease and did not differ significantly by other patient or tumour characteristics. Interpretation Increasing the dose intensity of adjuvant chemotherapy by shortening the interval between treatment cycles, or by giving individual drugs sequentially rather than giving the same drugs concurrently, moderately reduces the 10-year risk of recurrence and death from breast cancer without increasing mortality from other causes. Funding Cancer Research UK, Medical Research Council

Long-term outcomes for neoadjuvant versus adjuvant chemotherapy in early breast cancer: meta-analysis of individual patient data from ten randomised trials

Background Neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NACT) for early breast cancer can make breast-conserving surgery more feasible and might be more likely to eradicate micrometastatic disease than might the same chemotherapy given after surgery. We investigated the long-term benefits and risks of NACT and the influence of tumour characteristics on outcome with a collaborative meta-analysis of individual patient data from relevant randomised trials. Methods We obtained information about prerandomisation tumour characteristics, clinical tumour response, surgery, recurrence, and mortality for 4756 women in ten randomised trials in early breast cancer that began before 2005 and compared NACT with the same chemotherapy given postoperatively. Primary outcomes were tumour response, extent of local therapy, local and distant recurrence, breast cancer death, and overall mortality. Analyses by intention-to-treat used standard regression (for response and frequency of breast-conserving therapy) and log-rank methods (for recurrence and mortality). Findings Patients entered the trials from 1983 to 2002 and median follow-up was 9 years (IQR 5–14), with the last follow-up in 2013. Most chemotherapy was anthracycline based (3838 [81%] of 4756 women). More than two thirds (1349 [69%] of 1947) of women allocated NACT had a complete or partial clinical response. Patients allocated NACT had an increased frequency of breast-conserving therapy (1504 [65%] of 2320 treated with NACT vs 1135 [49%] of 2318 treated with adjuvant chemotherapy). NACT was associated with more frequent local recurrence than was adjuvant chemotherapy: the 15 year local recurrence was 21·4% for NACT versus 15·9% for adjuvant chemotherapy (5·5% increase [95% CI 2·4–8·6]; rate ratio 1·37 [95% CI 1·17–1·61]; p=0·0001). No significant difference between NACT and adjuvant chemotherapy was noted for distant recurrence (15 year risk 38·2% for NACT vs 38·0% for adjuvant chemotherapy; rate ratio 1·02 [95% CI 0·92–1·14]; p=0·66), breast cancer mortality (34·4% vs 33·7%; 1·06 [0·95–1·18]; p=0·31), or death from any cause (40·9% vs 41·2%; 1·04 [0·94–1·15]; p=0·45). Interpretation Tumours downsized by NACT might have higher local recurrence after breast-conserving therapy than might tumours of the same dimensions in women who have not received NACT. Strategies to mitigate the increased local recurrence after breast-conserving therapy in tumours downsized by NACT should be considered—eg, careful tumour localisation, detailed pathological assessment, and appropriate radiotherapy

Association between CD8+ T-cell infiltration and breast cancer survival in 12,439 patients.

BACKGROUND: T-cell infiltration in estrogen receptor (ER)-negative breast tumours has been associated with longer survival. To investigate this association and the potential of tumour T-cell infiltration as a prognostic and predictive marker, we have conducted the largest study of T cells in breast cancer to date. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Four studies totalling 12 439 patients were used for this work. Cytotoxic (CD8+) and regulatory (forkhead box protein 3, FOXP3+) T cells were quantified using immunohistochemistry (IHC). IHC for CD8 was conducted using available material from all four studies (8978 samples) and for FOXP3 from three studies (5239 samples)-multiple imputation was used to resolve missing data from the remaining patients. Cox regression was used to test for associations with breast cancer-specific survival. RESULTS: In ER-negative tumours [triple-negative breast cancer and human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2) positive)], presence of CD8+ T cells within the tumour was associated with a 28% [95% confidence interval (CI) 16% to 38%] reduction in the hazard of breast cancer-specific mortality, and CD8+ T cells within the stroma with a 21% (95% CI 7% to 33%) reduction in hazard. In ER-positive HER2-positive tumours, CD8+ T cells within the tumour were associated with a 27% (95% CI 4% to 44%) reduction in hazard. In ER-negative disease, there was evidence for greater benefit from anthracyclines in the National Epirubicin Adjuvant Trial in patients with CD8+ tumours [hazard ratio (HR) = 0.54; 95% CI 0.37-0.79] versus CD8-negative tumours (HR = 0.87; 95% CI 0.55-1.38). The difference in effect between these subgroups was significant when limited to cases with complete data (P heterogeneity = 0.04) and approached significance in imputed data (P heterogeneity = 0.1). CONCLUSIONS: The presence of CD8+ T cells in breast cancer is associated with a significant reduction in the relative risk of death from disease in both the ER-negative [supplementary Figure S1, available at Annals of Oncology online] and the ER-positive HER2-positive subtypes. Tumour lymphocytic infiltration may improve risk stratification in breast cancer patients classified into these subtypes. NEAT ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT00003577.This work was supported by Cancer Research UK (C490/A10119 and C490/A10124) and the NIHR Cambridge Biomedical Research Centre. HRA was supported by a grant from Addenbrooke’s Charitable Trust. The BCCA study was supported by an unrestricted educational grant from Sanofi-Aventis Canada. SMAM was supported by a PhD studentship funded by the Government of Egypt. IOE was funded by Breast Cancer Campaign.This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version can be found on the publisher's website at: http://annonc.oxfordjournals.org/content/early/2014/06/09/annonc.mdu191.long © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Society for Medical Oncology. All rights reserved