A shape-based decomposition of the yield adjustment term in the arbitrage-free Nelson and Siegel (AFNS) model of the yield curve

The appealing feature of the arbitrage-free Nelson-Siegel model of the yield curve is the ability to capture movements in the yield curve through readily interpretable shifts in its level, slope or curvature, all within a dynamic arbitrage-free framework. To ensure that the level, slope and curvature factors evolve so as not to admit arbitrage, the model introduces a yield-adjustment term. This paper shows how the yield-adjustment term can also be decomposed into the familiar level, slope and curvature elements plus some additional readily interpretable shape adjustments. This means that, even in an arbitrage-free setting, it continues to be possible to interpret movements in the yield curve in terms of level, slope and curvature influences. © 2014 © 2014 Taylor & Francis

The effects of quantitative easing on the integration of UK capital markets

© 2015 Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group. We examine the effects of quantitative easing (QE) on the volatility of and correlation between stocks, short-term bonds and long-term bonds in the UK. Using a multivariate dynamic conditional correlation generalised autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity model, we find that volatility in each of the markets experiences a significant increase during the financial crisis that is reversed during the first phase of QE. We find limited effects of the specific occurrence or intensity of QE activity on either the volatility or correlations for these asset classes, but some evidence that volatility persistence experienced temporary shifts during the sample period. We find short-term variability in the correlations between the markets during the crisis and QE periods, but cannot reject the hypothesis that correlations were constant throughout the sample period

The side effects of quantitative easing: Evidence from the UK bond market

© 2014 Elsevier Ltd. We examine the returns to UK government bonds before, during and between the phases of quantitative easing to identify the side effects for the market itself. We show that the onset of QE led to a sustained reduction in the costs of trading and removed some return regularities. However, controlling for a wide range of market activity, including issuance and QE announcements, we find evidence that investors could have earned excess returns after costs by trading in response to the purchase auction calendar. Drawing on economic theory, we explore the implications of these findings for both the efficiency of the market and the costs of government debt management in both the short and long run

Earnings and hindsight bias: An experimental study

We conduct prediction experiments where subjects estimate, and later reconstruct probabilities of upcoming events. Subjects also value state-contingent claims on these events. We find that hindsight bias is greater for events where subjects earned more money

The effect of quantitative easing on the variance and covariance of the UK and US equity markets

We examine the impact on the variance-covariance structure of UK and US equity markets of the quantitative easing (QE) operations implemented by the Bank of England (BoE) and the Federal Reserve (Fed). While the theory of portfolio balance suggests that QE operations could affect markets other than those in which the operations occur, prior analysis of these other markets is scarce. We find that while QE operations in general reduced equity volatility, day to day operations generated spikes in volatility in UK equities. We also find that BoE operations increased the covariance between the UK and US equity markets

Motives for corporate cash holdings:the CEO optimism effect

We examine the chief executive officer (CEO) optimism effect on managerial motives for cash holdings and find that optimistic and non-optimistic managers have significantly dissimilar purposes for holding more cash. This is consistent with both theory and evidence that optimistic managers are reluctant to use external funds. Optimistic managers hoard cash for growth opportunities, use relatively more cash for capital expenditure and acquisitions, and save more cash in adverse conditions. By contrast, they hold fewer inventories and receivables and their precautionary demand for cash holdings is less than that of non-optimistic managers. In addition, we consider debt conservatism in our model and find no evidence that optimistic managers’ cash hoarding is related to their preference to use debt conservatively. We also document that optimistic managers hold more cash in bad times than non-optimistic managers do. Our work highlights the crucial role that CEO characteristics play in shaping corporate cash holding policy

Forecasting the volatility of the Australian dollar using high-frequency data: Does estimator accuracy improve forecast evaluation?

We compare forecasts of the volatility of the Australian Dollar exchange rate to alternative measures of ex-post volatility. We develop and apply a simple test for the improvement in the ability of loss functions to distinguish between forecasts when the quality of a volatility estimator is increased. We find that both realized variance and the daily high-low range provide a significant improvement in loss function convergence relative to squared returns. We find that a model of stochastic volatility provides the best forecasts for models that use daily data, and the GARCH(1,1) model provides the best forecast using high-frequency data

Stock market anomalies: the day of the week effects, evidence from Borsa Istanbul

This study was conducted to investigate the market anomalies in the Borsa Istanbul Index (BIST). The scope of this study is to examine the Monday effects in BIST that are stock index of Turkey with an data set that contains daily stock prices between 02.01.2010 and 22.10.2014. The stock returns of the 289 companies were calculated according to the daily historical stock prices of companies. These returns were classified based on the sectors, and statistically analysed if the days of the week had any effects on Monday when the daily stock returns of Monday were fixed constant. The findings showed that the stock returns on Monday were affected by the other days. These effects were mostly negative, and varied according to the stocks and sectors. Thursday and Friday had the highest effect, whereas Tuesday had the least effect on the stocks. The results show that the stock market in Turkey has market anomaly, and BIST is not an efficient market