A multivariate hierarchical Bayesian approach to measuring agreement in repeated measurement method comparison studies

Background. Assessing agreement in method comparison studies depends on two fundamentally important components; validity (the between method agreement) and reproducibility (the within method agreement). The Bland-Altman limits of agreement technique is one of the favoured approaches in medical literature for assessing between method validity. However, few researchers have adopted this approach for the assessment of both validity and reproducibility. This may be partly due to a lack of a flexible, easily implemented and readily available statistical machinery to analyse repeated measurement method comparison data. Methods. Adopting the Bland-Altman framework, but using Bayesian methods, we present this statistical machinery. Two multivariate hierarchical Bayesian models are advocated, one which assumes that the underlying values for subjects remain static (exchangeable replicates) and one which assumes that the underlying values can change between repeated measurements (non-exchangeable replicates). Results. We illustrate the salient advantages of these models using two separate datasets that have been previously analysed and presented; (i) assuming static underlying values analysed using both multivariate hierarchical Bayesian models, and (ii) assuming each subject's underlying value is continually changing quantity and analysed using the non-exchangeable replicate multivariate hierarchical Bayesian model. Conclusion. These easily implemented models allow for full parameter uncertainty, simultaneous method comparison, handle unbalanced or missing data, and provide estimates and credible regions for all the parameters of interest. Computer code for the analyses in also presented, provided in the freely available and currently cost free software package WinBUGS

Circulating markers of arterial thrombosis and late-stage age-related macular degeneration: a case-control study.

PURPOSE: The aim of this study was to examine the relation of late-stage age-related macular degeneration (AMD) with markers of systemic atherothrombosis. METHODS: A hospital-based case-control study of AMD was undertaken in London, UK. Cases of AMD (n=81) and controls (n=77) were group matched for age and sex. Standard protocols were used for colour fundus photography and to classify AMD; physical examination included height, weight, history of or treatment for vascular-related diseases and smoking status. Blood samples were taken for measurement of fibrinogen, factor VIIc (FVIIc), factor VIIIc, prothrombin fragment F1.2 (F1.2), tissue plasminogen activator, and von Willebrand factor. Odds ratios from logistic regression analyses of each atherothrombotic marker with AMD were adjusted for age, sex, and established cardiovascular disease risk factors, including smoking, blood pressure, body mass index, and total cholesterol. RESULTS: After adjustment FVIIc and possibly F1.2 were inversely associated with the risk of AMD; per 1 standard deviation increase in these markers the odds ratio were, respectively, 0.62 (95% confidence interval 0.40, 0.95) and 0.71 (0.46, 1.09). None of the other atherothrombotic risk factors appeared to be related to AMD status. There was weak evidence that aspirin is associated with a lower risk of AMD. CONCLUSIONS: This study does not provide strong evidence of associations between AMD and systematic markers of arterial thrombosis, but the potential effects of FVIIc, and F1.2 are worthy of further investigation

A novel approach to glaucoma screening and education in Nepal

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Glaucoma is a major cause of blindness worldwide and an increasingly significant global health problem. Glaucoma prevention and management efforts have been challenging due to inherent difficulty in developing a simple and cost-effective screening plan, limited access to health care and educational resources, poverty, and inadequate knowledge of the disease, particularly in developing countries. Starting in 2004 the Tilganga Eye Centre in Kathmandu, Nepal has provided targeted glaucoma screening, treatment, and education through a combination of clinical outreach programs and educational activities for patients.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>A simple, age-based glaucoma screening algorithm was incorporated into three one-day cataract screening clinics. Using this algorithm, patients who were newly diagnosed with glaucoma were referred to TEC, where medication and surgery were provided free of charge through private donor funding. In addition, we describe two ongoing educational programs for increasing glaucoma awareness: an annual Glaucoma Awareness Week (which includes free screening, treatment, and counseling), and a repeating lecture series which generates new counselors.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>From 2004 to 2007 screening at the annual Glaucoma Awareness Week resulted in the diagnosis of 120 individuals with glaucoma, or 7.6% of total registrants. Attendance increased annually with a trend toward an increasing number of returning patients but a decreasing percentage of newly diagnosed patients, though the absolute numbers have remained relatively stable (range 21 to 38). Data from the three one-day screening clinics in 2006 show that approximately 2 to 4% of patients 50 years of age or older per clinic were newly diagnosed with POAG.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>This multi-faceted approach appears to successfully identify individuals with glaucoma and provide treatment to those who would otherwise not be able to afford it. While more data is needed to validate this model, specifically regarding the effectiveness of educational activities, long-term visual outcomes, and medication compliance, it may serve as a useful framework for other developing countries with similarly limited resources.</p

Dry weather induces outbreaks of human West Nile virus infections

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Since its first occurrence in the New York City area during 1999, West Nile virus (WNV) has spread rapidly across North America and has become a major public health concern in North America. By 2002, WNV was reported in 40 states and the District of Columbia with 4,156 human and 14,539 equine cases of infection. Mississippi had the highest human incidence rate of WNV during the 2002 epidemic in the United States. Epidemics of WNV can impose enormous impacts on local economies. Therefore, it is advantageous to predict human WNV risks for cost-effective controls of the disease and optimal allocations of limited resources. Understanding relationships between precipitation and WNV transmission is crucial for predicting the risk of the human WNV disease outbreaks under predicted global climate change scenarios.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We analyzed data on the human WNV incidences in the 82 counties of Mississippi in 2002, using standard morbidity ratio (SMR) and Bayesian hierarchical models, to determine relationships between precipitation and human WNV risks. We also entertained spatial autocorrelations of human WNV risks with conditional autocorrelative (CAR) models, implemented in WinBUGS 1.4.3.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>We observed an inverse relationship between county-level human WNV incidence risk and total annual rainfall during the previous year. Parameters representing spatial heterogeneity in the risk of human exposure to WNV improved model fit. Annual precipitation of the previous year was a predictor of spatial variation of WNV risk.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Our results have broad implications for risk assessment of WNV and forecasting WNV outbreaks. Assessing risk of vector-born infectious diseases will require understanding of complex ecological relationships. Based on the climatologically characteristic drought occurrence in the past and on climate model predictions for climate change and potentially greater drought occurrence in the future, we suggest that the frequency and relative risk of WNV outbreaks could increase.</p

Modelling the Genetic Risk in Age-Related Macular Degeneration

Late-stage age-related macular degeneration (AMD) is a common sight-threatening disease of the central retina affecting approximately 1 in 30 Caucasians. Besides age and smoking, genetic variants from several gene loci have reproducibly been associated with this condition and likely explain a large proportion of disease. Here, we developed a genetic risk score (GRS) for AMD based on 13 risk variants from eight gene loci. The model exhibited good discriminative accuracy, area-under-curve (AUC) of the receiver-operating characteristic of 0.820, which was confirmed in a cross-validation approach. Noteworthy, younger AMD patients aged below 75 had a significantly higher mean GRS (1.87, 95% CI: 1.69–2.05) than patients aged 75 and above (1.45, 95% CI: 1.36–1.54). Based on five equally sized GRS intervals, we present a risk classification with a relative AMD risk of 64.0 (95% CI: 14.11–1131.96) for individuals in the highest category (GRS 3.44–5.18, 0.5% of the general population) compared to subjects with the most common genetic background (GRS −0.05–1.70, 40.2% of general population). The highest GRS category identifies AMD patients with a sensitivity of 7.9% and a specificity of 99.9% when compared to the four lower categories. Modeling a general population around 85 years of age, 87.4% of individuals in the highest GRS category would be expected to develop AMD by that age. In contrast, only 2.2% of individuals in the two lowest GRS categories which represent almost 50% of the general population are expected to manifest AMD. Our findings underscore the large proportion of AMD cases explained by genetics particularly for younger AMD patients. The five-category risk classification could be useful for therapeutic stratification or for diagnostic testing purposes once preventive treatment is available

Use of traditional cooking fuels and the risk of young adult cataract in rural Bangladesh: a hospital-based case-control study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>This study aimed to investigate the independent relationship between the use of various traditional biomass cooking fuels and the occurrence of cataract in young adults in rural Bangladesh.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>A hospital-based age- and sex-matched case-control study incorporating two control groups was conducted. Cases were cataract patients aged 18 and 49 years diagnosed on the basis of any opacity of the crystalline lens or its capsule and visual acuity poorer than 6/18 on the Log Mar Visual Acuity Chart in either eye, or who had a pseudophakic lens as a result of cataract surgery within the previous 5 years. Non-eye-disease (NE) controls were selected from patients from ENT or Orthopaedics departments and non-cataract eye-disease (NC) controls from the Ophthalmology department. Data pertaining to history of exposure to various cooking fuels and to established risk factors for cataract were obtained by face-to-face interview and analyzed using conditional logistic regression.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Clean fuels were used by only 4% of subjects. A majority of males (64-80% depending on group) had never cooked, while the rest had used biomass cooking fuels, mainly wood/dry leaves, with only 6 having used rice straw and/or cow dung. All females of each group had used wood/dry leaves for cooking. Close to half had also used rice straw and/or cow dung. Among females, after controlling for family history of cataract and education and combining the two control groups, case status was shown to be significantly related to lifetime exposure to rice straw, fitted as a trend variable coded as never, ≤ median of all exposed, > median of all exposed (OR = 1.52, 95%CI 1.04-2.22), but not to lifetime exposure to wood/dry leaves. Case status among females showed an inverse association with ever use of cow dung as a cooking fuel (OR 0.43, 95%CI 0.22-0.81).</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>In this population, where cooking is almost exclusively done using biomass fuels, cases of young adult cataract among females were more likely to have had an increased lifetime exposure to cooking with rice straw fuel and not to have cooked using cow dung fuel. There is a possibility that these apparent associations could have been the result of uncontrolled founding, for instance by wealth. The nature of the associations, therefore, needs to be further investigated.</p

Regional variations in and correlates of disability-free life expectancy among older adults in China

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Considerable socioeconomic and health inequalities have been reported in China. However, because of a lack of appropriate data, limited research has been conducted on variations in disability-free life expectancy (DFLE) among older adults. This study aimed to use the most up-to-date disability survey data to explore geographical variations in DFLE at age 60 in China and to identify the socioeconomic and health care factors that partially account for these variations.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>This study used 2006 mortality data extrapolated from the 1990 and 2000 Census and disability data from a national disability survey conducted in 2006. Disability was performance based and was diagnosed by trained physicians. DFLE was calculated by region using the Sullivan method. Multiple linear regression models by gender were conducted to explore correlates of DFLE.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>DFLE at age 60 varied widely by region, from 11.2 to 20.8 years in 2006. Per capita gross domestic product, proportion of urban residents, and access to health care were the primary factors associated with geographical variations in DFLE.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The pattern of differences in DFLE by region mirrors the pattern of regional economic development in China. Countermeasures to decrease regional differences in DFLE include accelerating regional economic development and improving health care distribution.</p

Ethnic Variation in the Prevalence of Visual Impairment in People Attending Diabetic Retinopathy Screening in the United Kingdom (DRIVE UK)

PURPOSE: To provide estimates of visual impairment in people with diabetes attending screening in a multi-ethnic population in England (United Kingdom). METHODS: The Diabetic Retinopathy In Various Ethnic groups in UK (DRIVE UK) Study is a cross-sectional study on the ethnic variations of the prevalence of DR and visual impairment in two multi-racial cohorts in the UK. People on the diabetes register in West Yorkshire and South East London who were screened, treated or monitored between April 2008 to July 2009 (London) or August 2009 (West Yorkshire) were included in the study. Data on age, gender, ethnic group, visual acuity and diabetic retinopathy were collected. Ethnic group was defined according to the 2011 census classification. The two main ethnic minority groups represented here are Blacks ("Black/African/Caribbean/Black British") and South Asians ("Asians originating from the Indian subcontinent"). We examined the prevalence of visual impairment in the better eye using three cut-off points (a) loss of vision sufficient for driving (approximately <6/9) (b) visual impairment (<6/12) and (c) severe visual impairment (<6/60), standardising the prevalence of visual impairment in the minority ethnic groups to the age-structure of the white population. RESULTS: Data on visual acuity and were available on 50,331 individuals 3.4% of people diagnosed with diabetes and attending screening were visually impaired (95% confidence intervals (CI) 3.2% to 3.5%) and 0.39% severely visually impaired (0.33% to 0.44%). Blacks and South Asians had a higher prevalence of visual impairment (directly age standardised prevalence 4.6%, 95% CI 4.0% to 5.1% and 6.9%, 95% CI 5.8% to 8.0% respectively) compared to white people (3.3%, 95% CI 3.1% to 3.5%). Visual loss was also more prevalent with increasing age, type 1 diabetes and in people living in Yorkshire. CONCLUSIONS: Visual impairment remains an important public health problem in people with diabetes, and is more prevalent in the minority ethnic groups in the UK

Strategy selection and outcome prediction in sport using dynamic learning for stochastic processes

We study reliability equivalence factors of a system of independent and identical components with exponentiated Weibull lifetimes. The system has n subsystems connected in parallel and subsystem i has mi components connected in series, i=1,…,n. We consider improving the reliability of the system by (a) a reduction method and (b) several duplication methods: (i) hot duplication; (ii) cold duplication with perfect switching; (iii) cold duplication with imperfect switching. We compute two types of reliability equivalence factors: survival equivalence factors and mean equivalence factors. Although our methods adapt to allow for general lifetime models, we use the exponentiated Weibull distribution because it is flexible and enables comparisons with other reliability equivalence studies. The example we present demonstrates the potential for applying these methods to address specific questions that arise when attempting to improve the reliability of simple systems or simple configurations of possibly complex subsystems in many diverse applications