Multiple pathways mediate the effects of climate change on maternal reproductive traits in a red deer population

Temporal changes in phenological traits arising as a consequence of recent rapid environmental change have been widely demonstrated in animal populations. Increasingly, studies are seeking to understand the impact of changes in such traits on individual fitness and population dynamics, with the ultimate aim of predicting population persistence or extinction under different climate scenarios. Here, we examined the effects of environmental change on maternal reproductive traits in a wild population of red deer (Cervus elaphus) and sought to explain why, despite a rapid advance in offspring birth dates, we observed no apparent consequences for offspring fitness. By using path analysis, we identified both direct and indirect paths along which changes in environmental conditions affected birth date, birth mass, juvenile survival, and female fecundity. In general, warmer temperatures were associated with earlier birth dates and greater birth mass, and higher rainfall was associated with reduced juvenile survival and reduced female fecundity. We also examined concurrent effects of population density, maternal age, and reproductive history, and found that temporal stasis in average trait values, at least in part, could be explained by antagonistic roles of direct and indirect effects of changing climate and increasing population density. Identification of the many mechanisms that contribute to the dynamics of phenotypic traits is challenging; this study demonstrates the need to consider both climatic and demographic variation in order to understand the fitness consequences of changes in phenological traits. Read More: http://www.esajournals.org/doi/abs/10.1890/13-0967.

Environmental coupling of selection and heritability limits evolution

There has recently been great interest in applying theoretical quantitative genetic models to empirical studies of evolution in wild populations. However, while classical models assume environmental constancy, most natural populations exist in variable environments. Here, we applied a novel analytical technique to a long-term study of birthweight in wild sheep and examined, for the first time, how variation in environmental quality simultaneously influences the strength of natural selection and the genetic basis of trait variability. In addition to demonstrating that selection and genetic variance vary dramatically across environments, our results show that environmental heterogeneity induces a negative correlation between these two parameters. Harsh environmental conditions were associated with strong selection for increased birthweight but low genetic variance, and vice versa. Consequently, the potential for microevolution in this population is constrained by either a lack of heritable variation ( in poor environments) or by a reduced strength of selection ( in good environments). More generally, environmental dependence of this nature may act to limit rates of evolution, maintain genetic variance, and favour phenotypic stasis in many natural systems. Assumptions of environmental constancy are likely to be violated in natural systems, and failure to acknowledge this may generate highly misleading expectations for phenotypic microevolution

Experimental sheep BSE prions generate the vCJD phenotype when serially passaged in transgenic mice expressing human prion protein

The epizootic prion disease of cattle, bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE), causes variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease (vCJD) in humans following dietary exposure. While it is assumed that all cases of vCJD attributed to a dietary aetiology are related to cattle BSE, sheep and goats are susceptible to experimental oral challenge with cattle BSE prions and farmed animals in the UK were undoubtedly exposed to BSE-contaminated meat and bone meal during the late 1980s and early 1990s. Although no natural field cases of sheep BSE have been identified, it cannot be excluded that some BSE-infected sheep might have entered the European human food chain. Evaluation of the zoonotic potential of sheep BSE prions has been addressed by examining the transmission properties of experimental brain isolates in transgenic mice that express human prion protein, however to-date there have been relatively few studies. Here we report that serial passage of experimental sheep BSE prions in transgenic mice expressing human prion protein with methionine at residue 129 produces the vCJD phenotype that mirrors that seen when the same mice are challenged with vCJD prions from patient brain. These findings are congruent with those reported previously by another laboratory, and thereby strongly reinforce the view that sheep BSE prions could have acted as a causal agent of vCJD within Europe

Movement kinematic and postural control differences when performing a visuomotor skill in real and virtual environments

This is the author accepted manuscript.Availability of data, material and code: All relevant data and code is available online from: https://osf.io/h8az7/Immersive technologies, like virtual and mixed reality, pose a novel challenge for our sensorimotor systems as they deliver simulated sensory inputs that may not match those of the natural environment. These include reduced fields of view, missing or inaccurate haptic information, and distortions of 3D space; differences that may impact the control of motor actions. For instance, reach-to-grasp movements without end-point haptic feedback are characterised by slower and more exaggerated movements. A general uncertainty about sensory input may also induce a more conscious form of movement control. We tested whether a more complex skill like golf putting was also characterised by more consciously controlled movement. In a repeated-measures design, kinematics of the putter swing and postural control were compared between i) real-world putting, ii) VR putting, and iii) VR putting with haptic feedback from a real ball (i.e., mixed reality). Differences in putter swing were observed both between the real-world and VR, and between VR conditions with and without haptic information. Further, clear differences in postural control emerged between real and virtual putting, with both VR conditions characterised by larger postural movements, which were more regular and less complex, suggesting a more conscious form of balance control. Conversely, participants actually reported less conscious awareness of their movements in VR. These findings highlight how fundamental movement differences may exist between virtual and natural environments, which may pose challenges for transfer of learning within applications to motor rehabilitation and sport.Leverhulme Trus

Impact of Investor's Varying Risk Aversion on the Dynamics of Asset Price Fluctuations

While the investors' responses to price changes and their price forecasts are well accepted major factors contributing to large price fluctuations in financial markets, our study shows that investors' heterogeneous and dynamic risk aversion (DRA) preferences may play a more critical role in the dynamics of asset price fluctuations. We propose and study a model of an artificial stock market consisting of heterogeneous agents with DRA, and we find that DRA is the main driving force for excess price fluctuations and the associated volatility clustering. We employ a popular power utility function, $U(c,\gamma)=\frac{c^{1-\gamma}-1}{1-\gamma}$ with agent specific and time-dependent risk aversion index, $\gamma_i(t)$, and we derive an approximate formula for the demand function and aggregate price setting equation. The dynamics of each agent's risk aversion index, $\gamma_i(t)$ (i=1,2,...,N), is modeled by a bounded random walk with a constant variance $\delta^2$. We show numerically that our model reproduces most of the ``stylized'' facts observed in the real data, suggesting that dynamic risk aversion is a key mechanism for the emergence of these stylized facts.Comment: 17 pages, 7 figure

Multivariate discrimination and the Higgs + W/Z search

A systematic method for optimizing multivariate discriminants is developed and applied to the important example of a light Higgs boson search at the Tevatron and the LHC. The Significance Improvement Characteristic (SIC), defined as the signal efficiency of a cut or multivariate discriminant divided by the square root of the background efficiency, is shown to be an extremely powerful visualization tool. SIC curves demonstrate numerical instabilities in the multivariate discriminants, show convergence as the number of variables is increased, and display the sensitivity to the optimal cut values. For our application, we concentrate on Higgs boson production in association with a W or Z boson with H -> bb and compare to the irreducible standard model background, Z/W + bb. We explore thousands of experimentally motivated, physically motivated, and unmotivated single variable discriminants. Along with the standard kinematic variables, a number of new ones, such as twist, are described which should have applicability to many processes. We find that some single variables, such as the pull angle, are weak discriminants, but when combined with others they provide important marginal improvement. We also find that multiple Higgs boson-candidate mass measures, such as from mild and aggressively trimmed jets, when combined may provide additional discriminating power. Comparing the significance improvement from our variables to those used in recent CDF and DZero searches, we find that a 10-20% improvement in significance against Z/W + bb is possible. Our analysis also suggests that the H + W/Z channel with H -> bb is also viable at the LHC, without requiring a hard cut on the W/Z transverse momentum.Comment: 41 pages, 5 tables, 29 figure

Atmospheric emissions from the deepwater Horizon spill constrain air-water partitioning, hydrocarbon fate, and leak rate

The fate of deepwater releases of gas and oil mixtures is initially determined by solubility and volatility of individual hydrocarbon species; these attributes determine partitioning between air and water. Quantifying this partitioning is necessary to constrain simulations of gas and oil transport, to predict marine bioavailability of different fractions of the gas-oil mixture, and to develop a comprehensive picture of the fate of leaked hydrocarbons in the marine environment. Analysis of airborne atmospheric data shows massive amounts (∼258,000 kg/day) of hydrocarbons evaporating promptly from the Deepwater Horizon spill; these data collected during two research flights constrain air-water partitioning, thus bioavailability and fate, of the leaked fluid. This analysis quantifies the fraction of surfacing hydrocarbons that dissolves in the water column (∼33% by mass), the fraction that does not dissolve, and the fraction that evaporates promptly after surfacing (∼14% by mass). We do not quantify the leaked fraction lacking a surface expression; therefore, calculation of atmospheric mass fluxes provides a lower limit to the total hydrocarbon leak rate of 32,600 to 47,700 barrels of fluid per day, depending on reservoir fluid composition information. This study demonstrates a new approach for rapid-response airborne assessment of future oil spills. Copyright 2011 by the American Geophysical Union

Cross modal perception of body size in domestic dogs (Canis familiaris)

While the perception of size-related acoustic variation in animal vocalisations is well documented, little attention has been given to how this information might be integrated with corresponding visual information. Using a cross-modal design, we tested the ability of domestic dogs to match growls resynthesised to be typical of either a large or a small dog to size- matched models. Subjects looked at the size-matched model significantly more often and for a significantly longer duration than at the incorrect model, showing that they have the ability to relate information about body size from the acoustic domain to the appropriate visual category. Our study suggests that the perceptual and cognitive mechanisms at the basis of size assessment in mammals have a multisensory nature, and calls for further investigations of the multimodal processing of size information across animal species

Diboson-Jets and the Search for Resonant Zh Production

New particles at the TeV-scale may have sizeable decay rates into boosted Higgs bosons or other heavy scalars. Here, we investigate the possibility of identifying such processes when the Higgs/scalar subsequently decays into a pair of W bosons, constituting a highly distinctive "diboson-jet." These can appear as a simple dilepton (plus MET) configuration, as a two-prong jet with an embedded lepton, or as a four-prong jet. We study jet substructure methods to discriminate these objects from their dominant backgrounds. We then demonstrate the use of these techniques in the search for a heavy spin-one Z' boson, such as may arise from strong dynamics or an extended gauge sector, utilizing the decay chain Z' -> Zh -> Z(WW^(*)). We find that modes with multiple boosted hadronic Zs and Ws tend to offer the best prospects for the highest accessible masses. For 100/fb luminosity at the 14 TeV LHC, Z' decays into a standard 125 GeV Higgs can be observed with 5-sigma significance for masses of 1.5-2.5 TeV for a range of models. For a 200 GeV Higgs (requiring nonstandard couplings, such as fermiophobic), the reach may improve to up to 2.5-3.0 TeV.Comment: 23 pages plus appendices, 9 figure