Early characterization of the severity and transmissibility of pandemic influenza using clinical episode data from multiple populations

The potential rapid availability of large-scale clinical episode data during the next influenza pandemic suggests an opportunity for increasing the speed with which novel respiratory pathogens can be characterized. Key intervention decisions will be determined by both the transmissibility of the novel strain (measured by the basic reproductive number R0) and its individual-level severity. The 2009 pandemic illustrated that estimating individual-level severity, as described by the proportion pC of infections that result in clinical cases, can remain uncertain for a prolonged period of time. Here, we use 50 distinct US military populations during 2009 as a retrospective cohort to test the hypothesis that real-time encounter data combined with disease dynamic models can be used to bridge this uncertainty gap. Effectively, we estimated the total number of infections in multiple early-affected communities using the model and divided that number by the known number of clinical cases. Joint estimates of severity and transmissibility clustered within a relatively small region of parameter space, with 40 of the 50 populations bounded by: pC, 0.0133-0.150 and R0, 1.09-2.16. These fits were obtained despite widely varying incidence profiles: some with spring waves, some with fall waves and some with both. To illustrate the benefit of specific pairing of rapidly available data and infectious disease models, we simulated a future moderate pandemic strain with pC approximately ×10 that of 2009; the results demonstrating that even before the peak had passed in the first affected population, R0 and pC could be well estimated. This study provides a clear reference in this two-dimensional space against which future novel respiratory pathogens can be rapidly assessed and compared with previous pandemics

Tendinopathy—from basic science to treatment

Chronic tendon pathology (tendinopathy), although common, is difficult to treat. Tendons possess a highly organized fibrillar matrix, consisting of type I collagen and various 'minor' collagens, proteoglycans and glycoproteins. The tendon matrix is maintained by the resident tenocytes, and there is evidence of a continuous process of matrix remodeling, although the rate of turnover varies at different sites. A change in remodeling activity is associated with the onset of tendinopathy. Major molecular changes include increased expression of type III collagen, fibronectin, tenascin C, aggrecan and biglycan. These changes are consistent with repair, but they might also be an adaptive response to changes in mechanical loading. Repeated minor strain is thought to be the major precipitating factor in tendinopathy, although further work is required to determine whether it is mechanical overstimulation or understimulation that leads to the change in tenocyte activity. Metalloproteinase enzymes have an important role in the tendon matrix, being responsible for the degradation of collagen and proteoglycan in both healthy patients and those with disease. Metalloproteinases that show increased expression in painful tendinopathy include ADAM (a disintegrin and metalloproteinase)-12 and MMP (matrix metalloproteinase)-23. The role of these enzymes in tendon pathology is unknown, and further work is required to identify novel and specific molecular targets for therapy

Toothache and associated factors in Brazilian adults: a cross-sectional population-based study

Extent: 8p.Background: Toothache is a dental public health problem and one of the predictors of dental attendance and it is strongly associated with the life quality of individuals. In spite of this, there are few population-based epidemiological studies on this theme. Objective: To estimate the prevalence of toothache and associated factors in adults of Lages, Southern Brazil. Methods: A cross-sectional population-based study was carried out in a sample of 2,022 adults aged 20 to 59 years living in the urban area of a medium sized city in Southern Brazil. A questionnaire including socioeconomic, demographic, smoking, alcohol, and use of dental service variables was applied at adults household. Toothache occurred six months previous of the interview was considered the outcome. Poisson regression analyses were performed following a theoretical hierarchical framework. All analysis was adjusted by the sample design effect. Results: The response rate was 98.6%. The prevalence of toothache was 18.0% (95% CI 16.0; 20.1). The following variables were associated with toothache after adjustment: female (PR = 1.3 95% CI 1.3; 2.0), black skin colour vs. whites (PR = 1.5 95% CI 1.1, 1.9), low per capita income (PR = 1.7 95% CI 1.2, 2.3), smokers (PR = 1.5 95% CI 1.2, 1.9) and those who reported alcohol problems (PR = 1.4 95% CI 1.1; 1.9). To be 40 years of age (PR = 0.5 95% CI 0.4, 0.7) and use dental service in the last year (RR = 0.5 95% CI 0.4, 0.6) were protective factors for toothache. Conclusion: The prevalence of toothache in adults of Lages can be considered a major problem of dental public health.Mirian Kuhnen, Marco A Peres, Anelise V Masiero and Karen G Pere

Psychometric properties of the quality of life scale Child Health and Illness Profile-Child Edition in a combined analysis of five atomoxetine trials

Our aim was to evaluate the psychometric properties of the generic quality of life (QoL) scale Child Health and Illness Profile-Child Edition (CHIP-CE) by means of a combined analysis of atomoxetine clinical trials in children and adolescents with attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD). Individual patient-level data from five clinical trials were included in the combined analysis. Psychometric properties of the CHIP-CE were explored in terms of internal consistency and structure. Patients (n = 794) aged between 6 and 15 years (mean 9.7) with mean baseline ADHD Rating Scale of 41.8 ± 8.04 were included. On average, 0.7 (SD 2.23) items were missing for the whole CHIP-CE. The internal consistency of the CHIP-CE assessed by Cronbach’s alpha was good for all sub-domains at baseline and at endpoint. Considerable ceiling effects were only observed for the “restricted activity” sub-domain. No considerable floor effects were seen. The factor analysis supported the 12-factor solution for the sub-domains, but not the 5-factor solution for the domains. Our analyses were based on a large sample of non-US patients which allowed the measurement of clear changes in QoL over time. The results support that the CHIP-CE scale is psychometrically robust over time in terms of internal consistency and structure