GARFIELD-AF model for prediction of stroke and major bleeding in atrial fibrillation: a Danish nationwide validation study.

OBJECTIVES: To externally validate the accuracy of the Global Anticoagulant Registry in the FIELD-Atrial Fibrillation (GARFIELD-AF) model against existing risk scores for stroke and major bleeding risk in patients with non-valvular AF in a population-based cohort. DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study. SETTING: Danish nationwide registries. PARTICIPANTS: 90 693 patients with newly diagnosed non-valvular AF were included between 2010 and 2016, with follow-up censored at 1 year. PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES: External validation was performed using discrimination and calibration plots. C-statistics were compared with CHA2DS2VASc score for ischaemic stroke/systemic embolism (SE) and HAS-BLED score for major bleeding/haemorrhagic stroke outcomes. RESULTS: Of the 90 693 included, 51 180 patients received oral anticoagulants (OAC). Overall median age (Q1, Q3) were 75 (66-83) years and 48 486 (53.5%) were male. At 1-year follow-up, a total of 2094 (2.3%) strokes/SE, 2642 (2.9%) major bleedings and 10 915 (12.0%) deaths occurred. The GARFIELD-AF model was well calibrated with the predicted risk for stroke/SE and major bleeding. The discriminatory value of GARFIELD-AF risk model was superior to CHA2DS2VASc for predicting stroke in the overall cohort (C-index: 0.71, 95% CI: 0.70 to 0.72 vs C-index: 0.67, 95% CI: 0.66 to 0.68, p<0.001) as well as in low-risk patients (C-index: 0.64, 95% CI: 0.59 to 0.69 vs C-index: 0.57, 95% CI: 0.53 to 0.61, p=0.007). The GARFIELD-AF model was comparable to HAS-BLED in predicting the risk of major bleeding in patients on OAC therapy (C-index: 0.64, 95% CI: 0.63 to 0.66 vs C-index: 0.64, 95% CI: 0.63 to 0.65, p=0.60). CONCLUSION: In a nationwide Danish cohort with non-valvular AF, the GARFIELD-AF model adequately predicted the risk of ischaemic stroke/SE and major bleeding. Our external validation confirms that the GARFIELD-AF model was superior to CHA2DS2VASc in predicting stroke/SE and comparable with HAS-BLED for predicting major bleeding

Presence of clone-specific markers at birth in children with acute lymphoblastic leukaemia

Recent studies have suggested that development of childhood acute lymphoblastic leukaemia may often be initiated in utero. To provide further evidence of an prenatal origin of childhood leukaemia, we conducted a molecular biological investigation of nine children with B-precursor acute lymphoblastic leukaemia carrying the chromosomal translocation t(12;21), the most common subtype of all childhood acute lymphoblastic leukaemia. Specifically, for each child we identified the non-constitutive chromosomal sequences made up by the t(12;21) fusion gene. From these, leukaemia clone-specific DNA primers were constructed and applied in nested polymerase chain reaction analyses of DNA extracted from the patients' Guthrie cards obtained at birth. Leukaemia clone-specific fusion gene regions were demonstrated in Guthrie card DNA of three patients, age 2 years 11 months, 3 years 4 months, and 5 years 8 months at leukaemia diagnosis. Our findings are consistent with previous observations, and thus provide further evidence that the development of t(12;21) B-precursor acute lymphoblastic leukaemia may be initiated in utero. Review of the current literature moreover indicates that age at leukaemia may be inversely correlated with the burden of cells with leukaemia clonal markers, i.e. leukaemia predisposed cells at birth, and that certain types of childhood acute lymphoblastic leukaemia develop as a multiple step process involving both pre- and postnatal genetic events

Mathematical Modelling as a Proof of Concept for MPNs as a Human Inflammation Model for Cancer Development

<p><b>Left:</b> Typical development in stem cells (top panel A) and mature cells (bottom panel B). Healthy hematopoietic cells (full blue curves) dominate in the early phase where the number of malignant cells (stipulated red curves) are few. The total number of cells is also shown (dotted green curves). When a stem cell mutates without repairing mechanisms, a slowly increasing exponential growth starts. At a certain stage, the malignant cells become dominant, and the healthy hematopoietic cells begin to show a visible decline. Finally, the composition between the cell types results in a takeover by the malignant cells, leading to an exponential decline in hematopoietic cells and ultimately their extinction. The development is driven by an approximately exponential increase in the MPN stem cells, and the development is closely followed by the mature MPN cells. <b>Right:</b> B)The corresponding allele burden (7%, 33% and 67% corresponding to ET, PV, and PMF, respectively) defined as the ratio of MPN mature cells to the total number of mature cells.</p