Forecasting in South African pelagic fisheries management: The use of expert and decision support systems

Understanding long-term variability of pelagic fish populations is important in developing forecasting strategies for fisheries management and planning. However, many current fisheries models have only shortterm datasets available, whereas those of suitable duration often lack reliability. As resources are placed under increasing pressure, all available information should be used to assist management. Two simple rulebased deterministic modelling approaches are described, which use semi-quantitative and qualitative rules to relate recruitment success of South African anchovy Engraulis capensis to physical and biological indices. The first model relates recruitment success to indices of wind and sea surface temperature by way of a rulebased decision support system. In the second model, significant environmental and biological factors were identified and related to anchovy recruitment by way of an expert system approach. These two approaches are evaluated and compared. It is suggested that these types of models, when satisfactorily validated, have great potential in supporting the future management of the South African anchovy fishery in the dynamic  environment of the Benguela Current

Functionality of promoter microsatellites of arginine vasopressin receptor 1A (AVPR1A): implications for autism

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Arginine vasopressin (AVP) has been hypothesized to play a role in aetiology of autism based on a demonstrated involvement in the regulation of social behaviours. The arginine vasopressin receptor 1A gene (<it>AVPR1A</it>) is widely expressed in the brain and is considered to be a key receptor for regulation of social behaviour. Moreover, genetic variation at <it>AVPR1A </it>has been reported to be associated with autism. Evidence from non-human mammals implicates variation in the 5'-flanking region of <it>AVPR1A </it>in variable gene expression and social behaviour.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We examined four tagging single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) (rs3803107, rs1042615, rs3741865, rs11174815) and three microsatellites (RS3, RS1 and AVR) at the <it>AVPR1A </it>gene for association in an autism cohort from Ireland. Two 5'-flanking region polymorphisms in the human <it>AVPR1A</it>, RS3 and RS1, were also tested for their effect on relative promoter activity.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The short alleles of RS1 and the SNP rs11174815 show weak association with autism in the Irish population (<it>P </it>= 0.036 and <it>P </it>= 0.008, respectively). Both RS1 and RS3 showed differences in relative promoter activity by length. Shorter repeat alleles of RS1 and RS3 decreased relative promoter activity in the human neuroblastoma cell line SH-SY5Y.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>These aligning results can be interpreted as a functional route for this association, namely that shorter alleles of RS1 lead to decreased <it>AVPR1A </it>transcription, which may proffer increased susceptibility to the autism phenotype.</p

Inhibition of HIV-1 gene expression by Sam68ΔC: multiple targets but a common mechanism?

Two recent publications have explored the mechanisms by which a mutant of the host protein Sam68 blocks HIV-1 structural protein synthesis and expands its activity to encompass Nef. Although the two studies propose different mechanisms for the responses observed, it is possible that a common activity is responsible. Understanding how this Sam68 mutant discriminates among the multiple viral mRNAs promises to reveal unique properties of HIV-1 RNA metabolism

Inclusion of zero total event trials in meta-analyses maintains analytic consistency and incorporates all available data

BACKGROUND: Meta-analysis handles randomized trials with no outcome events in both treatment and control arms inconsistently, including them when risk difference (RD) is the effect measure but excluding them when relative risk (RR) or odds ratio (OR) are used. This study examined the influence of such trials on pooled treatment effects. METHODS: Analysis with and without zero total event trials of three illustrative published meta-analyses with a range of proportions of zero total event trials, treatment effects, and heterogeneity using inverse variance weighting and random effects that incorporates between-study heterogeneity. RESULTS: Including zero total event trials in meta-analyses moves the pooled estimate of treatment effect closer to nil, decreases its confidence interval and decreases between-study heterogeneity. For RR and OR, inclusion of such trials causes small changes, even when they comprise the large majority of included trials. For RD, the changes are more substantial, and in extreme cases can eliminate a statistically significant effect estimate. CONCLUSION: To include all relevant data regardless of effect measure chosen, reviewers should also include zero total event trials when calculating pooled estimates using OR and RR

Land of Addicts? An Empirical Investigation of Habit-Based Asset Pricing Models

A popular explanation of aggregate stock market behavior suggests that assets are priced as if there were a representative investor whose utility is a power function of the difference between aggregate consumption and a “habit” level, where the habit is some function of lagged and (possibly) contemporaneous consumption. But theory does not provide precise guidelines about the parametric functional relationship between the habit and aggregate consumption. This makes for- mal estimation and testing challenging; at the same time, it raises an empirical question about the functional form of the habit that best explains asset pricing data. This paper studies the ability of a general class of habit-based asset pricing models to match the conditional moment restrictions implied by asset pricing theory. Our approach is to treat the functional form of the habit as unknown, and to estimate it along with the rest of the model’s finite dimensional parameters. This semiparametric approach allows us to empirically evaluate a number of interesting hypotheses about the specification of habit-based asset pricing models. Using stationary quarterly data on consumption growth, assets returns and instruments, our empirical results indicate that the estimated habit function is nonlinear, the habit formation is internal, and the estimated time-preference parameter and the power utility parameter are sensible. In addition, our estimated habit function generates a positive stochastic discount factor (SDF) proxy and performs well in explaining cross-sectional stock return data. We find that an internal habit SDF proxy can explain a cross-section of size and book-market sorted portfolio equity returns better than (i) the Fama and French (1993) three-factor model, (ii) the Lettau and Ludvigson (2001b) scaled consumption CAPM model, (iii) an external habit SDF proxy, (iv) the classic CAPM, and (v) the classic consumption CAPM

Survey of the quality of experimental design, statistical analysis and reporting of research using animals

For scientific, ethical and economic reasons, experiments involving animals should be appropriately designed, correctly analysed and transparently reported. This increases the scientific validity of the results, and maximises the knowledge gained from each experiment. A minimum amount of relevant information must be included in scientific publications to ensure that the methods and results of a study can be reviewed, analysed and repeated. Omitting essential information can raise scientific and ethical concerns. We report the findings of a systematic survey of reporting, experimental design and statistical analysis in published biomedical research using laboratory animals. Medline and EMBASE were searched for studies reporting research on live rats, mice and non-human primates carried out in UK and US publicly funded research establishments. Detailed information was collected from 271 publications, about the objective or hypothesis of the study, the number, sex, age and/or weight of animals used, and experimental and statistical methods. Only 59% of the studies stated the hypothesis or objective of the study and the number and characteristics of the animals used. Appropriate and efficient experimental design is a critical component of high-quality science. Most of the papers surveyed did not use randomisation (87%) or blinding (86%), to reduce bias in animal selection and outcome assessment. Only 70% of the publications that used statistical methods described their methods and presented the results with a measure of error or variability. This survey has identified a number of issues that need to be addressed in order to improve experimental design and reporting in publications describing research using animals. Scientific publication is a powerful and important source of information; the authors of scientific publications therefore have a responsibility to describe their methods and results comprehensively, accurately and transparently, and peer reviewers and journal editors share the responsibility to ensure that published studies fulfil these criteria

Knowledge of actions of inhaled corticosteroids in patients who did not persist drug treatment early

Objective To evaluate, among new users of inhaled corticosteroids that did not persist treatment, knowledge of inhaled corticosteroids' actions and whether they were instructed on the use of their inhaler. Setting Fifteen community pharmacies in The Netherlands. Methods Patients were interviewed by telephone. Their general practitioners provided diagnostic information and automated dispensing records were retrieved. Main outcome measures Knowledge of patients about the actions of inhaled corticosteroids. Results 230 (80.1%) of 287 patients were willing to participate. The majority (79.1%) of 230 patients was not aware of the anti-inflammatory actions of inhaled corticosteroids. Most patients were instructed on the use of their inhaler, predominantly by their physician (53%) or pharmacy (35.2%). Conclusions Although most patients reported inhaler instruction by at least one health care provider, the majority was unaware of inhaled corticosteroids' actions. Physicians and pharmacists should reconsider the instructions they provide especially to patients who should continuously use inhaled corticosteroids

Lithic technological responses to Late Pleistocene glacial cycling at Pinnacle Point Site 5-6, South Africa

There are multiple hypotheses for human responses to glacial cycling in the Late Pleistocene, including changes in population size, interconnectedness, and mobility. Lithic technological analysis informs us of human responses to environmental change because lithic assemblage characteristics are a reflection of raw material transport, reduction, and discard behaviors that depend on hunter-gatherer social and economic decisions. Pinnacle Point Site 5-6 (PP5-6), Western Cape, South Africa is an ideal locality for examining the influence of glacial cycling on early modern human behaviors because it preserves a long sequence spanning marine isotope stages (MIS) 5, 4, and 3 and is associated with robust records of paleoenvironmental change. The analysis presented here addresses the question, what, if any, lithic assemblage traits at PP5-6 represent changing behavioral responses to the MIS 5-4-3 interglacial-glacial cycle? It statistically evaluates changes in 93 traits with no a priori assumptions about which traits may significantly associate with MIS. In contrast to other studies that claim that there is little relationship between broad-scale patterns of climate change and lithic technology, we identified the following characteristics that are associated with MIS 4: increased use of quartz, increased evidence for outcrop sources of quartzite and silcrete, increased evidence for earlier stages of reduction in silcrete, evidence for increased flaking efficiency in all raw material types, and changes in tool types and function for silcrete. Based on these results, we suggest that foragers responded to MIS 4 glacial environmental conditions at PP5-6 with increased population or group sizes, 'place provisioning', longer and/or more intense site occupations, and decreased residential mobility. Several other traits, including silcrete frequency, do not exhibit an association with MIS. Backed pieces, once they appear in the PP5-6 record during MIS 4, persist through MIS 3. Changing paleoenvironments explain some, but not all temporal technological variability at PP5-6.Social Science and Humanities Research Council of Canada; NORAM; American-Scandinavian Foundation; Fundacao para a Ciencia e Tecnologia [SFRH/BPD/73598/2010]; IGERT [DGE 0801634]; Hyde Family Foundations; Institute of Human Origins; National Science Foundation [BCS-9912465, BCS-0130713, BCS-0524087, BCS-1138073]; John Templeton Foundation to the Institute of Human Origins at Arizona State Universit

Is standard breast-conserving therapy (BCT) in elderly breast cancer patients justified? A prospective measurement of acute toxicity according CTC-classification

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Breast conserving therapy (BCT) is an accepted treatment for early-stage breast cancer. This study aimed to measure prospectively acute radiation-related toxicity and to create a comprehensive data base for long-term temporal analyses of 3D conformal adjuvant radiotherapy. The specific aspect of age has been neglected by traditional research. Therefore, the impact of age on acute BCT toxicity should be also specifically adressed.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Toxicity was measured in 109 patients at initiation (t1), during radiotherapy (t2-t7), and 6 weeks after treatment completion (t8) using a new topographic module. Organ systems were recorded in 15 scales and scored according to symptom intensity (grade 0-5) based on CTC (Common Toxicity Criteria) -classification. Radiotherapy was virtually CT-based planned and applied with 6-MeV-photons. Mean total dose was 60.1 Gy. Patients were stratified by age in 3 Groups: <50, 50-60, and >60 years.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Registered toxicity was generally low. Mean overall-grade climbed from 0.29-0.40 (t1-t7), and dropped to 0.23 (t8). Univariate analyses revealed slightly higher toxicity in older (> 60 years) versus young patients (< 50 years) in 2 scales only: breast-symmetry (p = 0.033), and arm function (p = 0.007). However, in the scale "appetite" toxicity was higher in younger (< 50 years) versus older (> 60 years) patients (p = 0.039). Toxicity differences in all other scales were not significant. Between older (> 60 years) and midaged patients (50-60 years) no significant differences in toxicity were found. This was also true for the comparison between young (< 50 years) versus midaged patient groups (50-60 years).</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The treatment concept of BCT for breast cancer is generally well tolerated. The toxicity-measurement with the new topographic module is feasible. Not modified standard treatment for BC should be performed in elderly women.</p

The utilisation of health research in policy-making: Concepts, examples and methods of assessment

The importance of health research utilisation in policy-making, and of understanding the mechanisms involved, is increasingly recognised. Recent reports calling for more resources to improve health in developing countries, and global pressures for accountability, draw greater attention to research-informed policy-making. Key utilisation issues have been described for at least twenty years, but the growing focus on health research systems creates additional dimensions. The utilisation of health research in policy-making should contribute to policies that may eventually lead to desired outcomes, including health gains. In this article, exploration of these issues is combined with a review of various forms of policy-making. When this is linked to analysis of different types of health research, it assists in building a comprehensive account of the diverse meanings of research utilisation. Previous studies report methods and conceptual frameworks that have been applied, if with varying degrees of success, to record utilisation in policy-making. These studies reveal various examples of research impact within a general picture of underutilisation. Factors potentially enhancing utilisation can be identified by exploration of: priority setting; activities of the health research system at the interface between research and policy-making; and the role of the recipients, or 'receptors', of health research. An interfaces and receptors model provides a framework for analysis. Recommendations about possible methods for assessing health research utilisation follow identification of the purposes of such assessments. Our conclusion is that research utilisation can be better understood, and enhanced, by developing assessment methods informed by conceptual analysis and review of previous studies