Forecasting Non-Stationary Diarrhea, Acute Respiratory Infection, and Malaria Time-Series in Niono, Mali

BACKGROUND: Much of the developing world, particularly sub-Saharan Africa, exhibits high levels of morbidity and mortality associated with diarrhea, acute respiratory infection, and malaria. With the increasing awareness that the aforementioned infectious diseases impose an enormous burden on developing countries, public health programs therein could benefit from parsimonious general-purpose forecasting methods to enhance infectious disease intervention. Unfortunately, these disease time-series often i) suffer from non-stationarity; ii) exhibit large inter-annual plus seasonal fluctuations; and, iii) require disease-specific tailoring of forecasting methods. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: In this longitudinal retrospective (01/1996-06/2004) investigation, diarrhea, acute respiratory infection of the lower tract, and malaria consultation time-series are fitted with a general-purpose econometric method, namely the multiplicative Holt-Winters, to produce contemporaneous on-line forecasts for the district of Niono, Mali. This method accommodates seasonal, as well as inter-annual, fluctuations and produces reasonably accurate median 2- and 3-month horizon forecasts for these non-stationary time-series, i.e., 92% of the 24 time-series forecasts generated (2 forecast horizons, 3 diseases, and 4 age categories = 24 time-series forecasts) have mean absolute percentage errors circa 25%. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: The multiplicative Holt-Winters forecasting method: i) performs well across diseases with dramatically distinct transmission modes and hence it is a strong general-purpose forecasting method candidate for non-stationary epidemiological time-series; ii) obliquely captures prior non-linear interactions between climate and the aforementioned disease dynamics thus, obviating the need for more complex disease-specific climate-based parametric forecasting methods in the district of Niono; furthermore, iii) readily decomposes time-series into seasonal components thereby potentially assisting with programming of public health interventions, as well as monitoring of disease dynamics modification. Therefore, these forecasts could improve infectious diseases management in the district of Niono, Mali, and elsewhere in the Sahel

State–Space Forecasting of Schistosoma haematobium Time-Series in Niono, Mali

Adequate forecasting and early warning systems are based upon observations of human behavior, population, disease time-series, climate, environment, and/or a combination thereof, whichever option best compromises among realism, feasibility, robustness, and parsimony. Fully automatic and user-friendly state–space forecasting frameworks, incorporating myriad options (e.g., expert opinion, univariate, multivariate, and spatial-temporal), could considerably enhance disease control and hazard mitigation efforts in regions where vulnerability to neglected tropical diseases is pervasive and statistical expertise is scarce. The operational simplicity, generality, and flexibility of state–space frameworks, encapsulating multiple methods, could conveniently allow for 1) unsupervised model selection without disease-specific methodological tailoring, 2) on-line adaptation to disease time-series fluctuations, and 3) automatic switches between distinct forecasting methods as new time-series perturbations dictate. In this investigation, a univariate state–space framework with the aforementioned properties was successfully applied to the Schistosoma haematobium time-series for the district of Niono, Mali, to automatically generate contemporaneous on-line forecasts and hence, providing a basis for local re-organization and strengthening public health programs in this and potentially other Sahelian districts

Both piRNA and siRNA Pathways Are Silencing Transcripts of the Suffix Element in the Drosophila melanogaster Germline and Somatic Cells

In the Drosophila melanogaster germline, the piRNA pathway silences retrotransposons as well as other transcribed repetitive elements. Suffix is an unusual short retroelement that was identified both as an actively transcribed repetitive element and also as an element at the 3′ ends of the Drosophila non-LTR F element. The copies of suffix that are F element-independent are far more actively transcribed than their counterparts on the F element. We studied the patterns of small RNAs targeting both strands of suffix in Drosophila ovaries using an RNase protection assay and the analysis of the corresponding RNA sequences from the libraries of total small RNAs. Our results indicate that suffix sense and antisense transcripts are targeted mainly by 23–29 nucleotides in length piRNAs and also by 21 nucleotides in length siRNAs. Suffix sense transcripts actively form longer RNA species, corresponding either to partial digestion products of the RNAi and Piwi pathways or to another RNA silencing mechanism. Both sense and antisense suffix transcripts accumulated in the ovaries of homozygous spn-E, piwi and aub mutants. These results provide evidence that suffix sense and antisense transcripts in the germ line and soma are targeted by both RNAi and Piwi pathways and that a Dicer-independent pathway of biogenesis of siRNAs could exist in Drosophila cells

Evidence of Latitudinal Migration in Tri-colored Bats, Perimyotis subflavus

Background: Annual movements of tri-colored bats (Perimyotis subflavus) are poorly understood. While this species has been considered a regional migrant, some evidence suggests that it may undertake annual latitudinal migrations, similar to other long distance North American migratory bat species. Methodology/Principal Findings: We investigated migration in P. subflavus by conducting stable hydrogen isotope analyses of 184 museum specimen fur samples and comparing these results (dDfur) to published interpolated dD values of collection site growing season precipitation (dDprecip). Results suggest that the male molt period occurred between June 23 and October 16 and 33 % of males collected during the presumed non-molt period were south of their location of fur growth. For the same time period, 16 % of females were south of their location of fur growth and in general, had not travelled as far as migratory males. There were strong correlations between dDfur from the presumed molt period and both growing season dD precip (males – r 2 = 0.86; p,0.01; females – r 2 = 0.75; p,0.01), and latitude of collection (males – r 2 = 0.85; p,0.01; females – r 2 = 0.73; p,0.01). Most migrants were collected at the northern (.40uN; males and females) and southern (,35uN; males only) extents of the species ’ range. Conclusions/Significance: These results indicate a different pattern of migration for this species than previously documented, suggesting that some P. subflavus engage in annual latitudinal migrations and that migratory tendency varie

Metatranscriptomics Reveals the Diversity of Genes Expressed by Eukaryotes in Forest Soils

Eukaryotic organisms play essential roles in the biology and fertility of soils. For example the micro and mesofauna contribute to the fragmentation and homogenization of plant organic matter, while its hydrolysis is primarily performed by the fungi. To get a global picture of the activities carried out by soil eukaryotes we sequenced 2×10,000 cDNAs synthesized from polyadenylated mRNA directly extracted from soils sampled in beech (Fagus sylvatica) and spruce (Picea abies) forests. Taxonomic affiliation of both cDNAs and 18S rRNA sequences showed a dominance of sequences from fungi (up to 60%) and metazoans while protists represented less than 12% of the 18S rRNA sequences. Sixty percent of cDNA sequences from beech forest soil and 52% from spruce forest soil had no homologs in the GenBank/EMBL/DDJB protein database. A Gene Ontology term was attributed to 39% and 31.5% of the spruce and beech soil sequences respectively. Altogether 2076 sequences were putative homologs to different enzyme classes participating to 129 KEGG pathways among which several were implicated in the utilisation of soil nutrients such as nitrogen (ammonium, amino acids, oligopeptides), sugars, phosphates and sulfate. Specific annotation of plant cell wall degrading enzymes identified enzymes active on major polymers (cellulose, hemicelluloses, pectin, lignin) and glycoside hydrolases represented 0.5% (beech soil)–0.8% (spruce soil) of the cDNAs. Other sequences coding enzymes active on organic matter (extracellular proteases, lipases, a phytase, P450 monooxygenases) were identified, thus underlining the biotechnological potential of eukaryotic metatranscriptomes. The phylogenetic affiliation of 12 full-length carbohydrate active enzymes showed that most of them were distantly related to sequences from known fungi. For example, a putative GH45 endocellulase was closely associated to molluscan sequences, while a GH7 cellobiohydrolase was closest to crustacean sequences, thus suggesting a potentially significant contribution of non-fungal eukaryotes in the actual hydrolysis of soil organic matter

Under-Five Mortality in High Focus States in India: A District Level Geospatial Analysis

<div><h3>Background</h3><p>This paper examines if, when controlling for biophysical and geographical variables (including rainfall, productivity of agricultural lands, topography/temperature, and market access through road networks), socioeconomic and health care indicators help to explain variations in the under-five mortality rate across districts from nine high focus states in India. The literature on this subject is inconclusive because the survey data, upon which most studies of child mortality rely, rarely include variables that measure these factors. This paper introduces these variables into an analysis of 284 districts from nine high focus states in India.</p> <h3>Methodology/Principal Findings</h3><p>Information on the mortality indicator was accessed from the recently conducted Annual Health Survey of 2011 and other socioeconomic and geographic variables from Census 2011, District Level Household and Facility Survey (2007–08), Department of Economics and Statistics Divisions of the concerned states. Displaying high spatial dependence (spatial autocorrelation) in the mortality indicator (outcome variable) and its possible predictors used in the analysis, the paper uses the Spatial-Error Model in an effort to negate or reduce the spatial dependence in model parameters. The results evince that the coverage gap index (a mixed indicator of district wise coverage of reproductive and child health services), female literacy, urbanization, economic status, the number of newborn care provided in Primary Health Centers in the district transpired as significant correlates of under-five mortality in the nine high focus states in India. The study identifies three clusters with high under-five mortality rate including 30 districts, and advocates urgent attention.</p> <h3>Conclusion</h3><p>Even after controlling the possible biophysical and geographical variables, the study reveals that the health program initiatives have a major role to play in reducing under-five mortality rate in the high focus states in India.</p> </div

Cryptococcus: from environmental saprophyte to global pathogen.

Cryptococcosis is a globally distributed invasive fungal infection that is caused by species within the genus Cryptococcus which presents substantial therapeutic challenges. Although natural human-to-human transmission has never been observed, recent work has identified multiple virulence mechanisms that enable cryptococci to infect, disseminate within and ultimately kill their human host. In this Review, we describe these recent discoveries that illustrate the intricacy of host-pathogen interactions and reveal new details about the host immune responses that either help to protect against disease or increase host susceptibility. In addition, we discuss how this improved understanding of both the host and the pathogen informs potential new avenues for therapeutic development

Maternal and child health interventions in Nigeria: a systematic review of published studies from 1990 to 2014

BACKGROUND: Poor maternal and child health indicators have been reported in Nigeria since the 1990s. Many interventions have been instituted to reverse the trend and ensure that Nigeria is on track to achieve the Millennium Development Goals. This systematic review aims at describing and indirectly measuring the effect of the Maternal, Newborn, and Child Health (MNCH) interventions implemented in Nigeria from 1990 to 2014. METHODS: PubMed and ISI Web of Knowledge were searched from 1990 to April 2014 whereas POPLINE® was searched until 16 February 2015 to identify reports of interventions targeting Maternal, Newborn, and Child Health in Nigeria. Narrative and graphical synthesis was done by integrating the results of extracted studies with trends of maternal mortality ratio (MMR) and under five mortality (U5MR) derived from a joint point regression analysis using Nigeria Demographic and Health Survey data (1990-2013). This was supplemented by document analysis of policies, guidelines and strategies of the Federal Ministry of Health developed for Nigeria during the same period. RESULTS: We identified 66 eligible studies from 2,662 studies. Three interventions were deployed nationwide and the remainder at the regional level. Multiple study designs were employed in the enrolled studies: pre- and post-intervention or quasi-experimental (n = 40; 61%); clinical trials (n = 6;9%); cohort study or longitudinal evaluation (n = 3;5%); process/output/outcome evaluation (n = 17;26%). The national MMR shows a consistent reduction (Annual Percentage Change (APC) = -3.10%, 95% CI: -5.20 to -1.00 %) with marked decrease in the slope observed in the period with a cluster of published studies (2004-2014). Fifteen intervention studies specifically targeting under-five children were published during the 24 years of observation. A statistically insignificant downward trend in the U5MR was observed (APC = -1.25%, 95% CI: -4.70 to 2.40%) coinciding with publication of most of the studies and development of MNCH policies. CONCLUSIONS: The development of MNCH policies, implementation and publication of interventions corresponds with the downward trend of maternal and child mortality in Nigeria. This systematic review has also shown that more MNCH intervention research and publications of findings is required to generate local and relevant evidence

Role of community health workers in type 2 diabetes mellitus self-management: A scoping review

Background: Globally the number of people with Type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) has risen significantly over the last few decades. Aligned to this is a growing use of community health workers (CHWs) to deliver T2DM self-management support with good clinical outcomes especially in High Income Countries (HIC). Evidence and lessons from these interventions can be useful for Low- and Middle-Income countries (LMICs) such as South Africa that are experiencing a marked increase in T2DM prevalence. Objectives: This study aimed to examine how CHW have been utilized to support T2DM self-management globally, their preparation for and supervision to perform their functions. Method: The review was guided by a stepwise approach outlined in the framework for scoping reviews developed by Arksey and O’Malley. Peer reviewed scientific and grey literature was searched using a string of keywords, selecting English full-text articles published between 2000 and 2015. Articles were selected using inclusion criteria, charted and content analyzed. Results: 1008 studies were identified of which 54 full text articles were selected. Most (53) of the selected studies were in HIC and targeted mostly minority populations in low resource settings. CHWs were mostly deployed to provide education, support, and advocacy. Structured curriculum based education was the most frequently reported service provided by CHWs to support T2DM self-management. Support services included informational, emotional, appraisal and instrumental support. Models of CHW care included facility linked nurse-led CHW coordination, facility-linked CHW led coordination and standalone CHW interventions without facility interaction. Conclusion: CHWs play several roles in T2DM self-management, including structured education, ongoing support and health system advocacy. Preparing and coordinating CHWs for these roles is crucial and needs further research and strengthening