Predicting consumer biomass, size-structure, production, catch potential, responses to fishing and associated uncertainties in the world's marine ecosystems

Existing estimates of fish and consumer biomass in the world’s oceans are disparate. This creates uncertainty about the roles of fish and other consumers in biogeochemical cycles and ecosystem processes, the extent of human and environmental impacts and fishery potential. We develop and use a size-based macroecological model to assess the effects of parameter uncertainty on predicted consumer biomass, production and distribution. Resulting uncertainty is large (e.g. median global biomass 4.9 billion tonnes for consumers weighing 1 g to 1000 kg; 50% uncertainty intervals of 2 to 10.4 billion tonnes; 90% uncertainty intervals of 0.3 to 26.1 billion tonnes) and driven primarily by uncertainty in trophic transfer efficiency and its relationship with predator-prey body mass ratios. Even the upper uncertainty intervals for global predictions of consumer biomass demonstrate the remarkable scarcity of marine consumers, with less than one part in 30 million by volume of the global oceans comprising tissue of macroscopic animals. Thus the apparently high densities of marine life seen in surface and coastal waters and frequently visited abundance hotspots will likely give many in society a false impression of the abundance of marine animals. Unexploited baseline biomass predictions from the simple macroecological model were used to calibrate a more complex size- and trait-based model to estimate fisheries yield and impacts. Yields are highly dependent on baseline biomass and fisheries selectivity. Predicted global sustainable fisheries yield increases ≈4 fold when smaller individuals (< 20 cm from species of maximum mass < 1kg) are targeted in all oceans, but the predicted yields would rarely be accessible in practice and this fishing strategy leads to the collapse of larger species if fishing mortality rates on different size classes cannot be decoupled. Our analyses show that models with minimal parameter demands that are based on a few established ecological principles can support equitable analysis and comparison of diverse ecosystems. The analyses provide insights into the effects of parameter uncertainty on global biomass and production estimates, which have yet to be achieved with complex models, and will therefore help to highlight priorities for future research and data collection. However, the focus on simple model structures and global processes means that non-phytoplankton primary production and several groups, structures and processes of ecological and conservation interest are not represented. Consequently, our simple models become increasingly less useful than more complex alternatives when addressing questions about food web structure and function, biodiversity, resilience and human impacts at smaller scales and for areas closer to coasts

Being a quantitative interviewer: qualitatively exploring interviewers' experiences in a longitudinal cohort study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Many studies of health outcomes rely on data collected by interviewers administering highly-structured (quantitative) questionnaires to participants. Little appears to be known about the experiences of such interviewers. This paper explores interviewer experiences of working on a longitudinal study in New Zealand (the Prospective Outcomes of injury Study - POIS). Interviewers administer highly-structured questionnaires to participants, usually by telephone, and enter data into a secure computer program. The research team had expectations of interviewers including: consistent questionnaire administration, timeliness, proportions of potential participants recruited and an empathetic communication style. This paper presents results of a focus group to qualitatively explore with the team of interviewers their experiences, problems encountered, strategies, support systems used and training.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>A focus group with interviewers involved in the POIS interviews was held; it was audio-recorded and transcribed. The analytical method was thematic, with output intended to be descriptive and interpretive.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Nine interviewers participated in the focus group (average time in interviewer role was 31 months). Key themes were: 1) the positive aspects of the quantitative interviewer role (i.e. relationships and resilience, insights gained, and participants' feedback), 2) difficulties interviewers encountered and solutions identified (i.e. stories lost or incomplete, forgotten appointments, telling the stories, acknowledging distress, stories reflected and debriefing and support), and 3) meeting POIS researcher expectations (i.e. performance standards, time-keeping, dealing exclusively with the participant and maintaining privacy).</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Interviewers demonstrated great skill in the way they negotiated research team expectations whilst managing the relationships with participants. Interviewers found it helpful to have a research protocol in place in the event of sensitive situations - this appeared to alleviate the pressure on interviewers to carry the burden of responsibility. Interviewers are employed to scientifically gather quantitative data, yet their effectiveness relies largely on their humanity. We propose that the personal connection generated between the interviewers and participants was important, and enabled successful follow-up rates for the study. The enjoyment of these relationships was crucial to interviewers and helped balance the negative aspects of their role. Our results suggest that experienced quantitative interviewers endeavour, as do many qualitative researchers, to carefully and respectfully negotiate the requirements of the interview within a relationship they form with participants: being sensitive to the needs of participants and respectful of their wishes - and establishing an ethical relationship.</p

Giving risk management culture a role in strategic planning

WOS: 000413939000023Strategically planned and implemented risk management paves the way for competitive advantage and a decisive edge for global financial institutions. The importance of risk management becomes more evident in financial instability periods. The failure of global financial institutions in the recent financial crisis revealed that firms with strong risk management and culture were more prepared and economically less damaged. As financial institutions have been criticized severely about risk management practices, it also becomes clear that most financial institutions have difficulties in developing a risk management culture. To have a clear understanding of risk management culture, the chapter aims to highlight a need to extend our understanding of risk management culture and how it can find a voice in the strategic planning of global financial institutions

Oxide Heterostructures from a Realistic Many-Body Perspective

Oxide heterostructures are a new class of materials by design, that open the possibility for engineering challenging electronic properties, in particular correlation effects beyond an effective single-particle description. This short review tries to highlight some of the demanding aspects and questions, motivated by the goal to describe the encountered physics from first principles. The state-of-the-art methodology to approach realistic many-body effects in strongly correlated oxides, the combination of density functional theory with dynamical mean-field theory, will be briefly introduced. Discussed examples deal with prominent Mott-band- and band-band-insulating type of oxide heterostructures, where different electronic characteristics may be stabilized within a single architectured oxide material.Comment: 19 pages, 9 figure

Detrusor response to outlet obstruction

Bladder responses to outlet obstruction are thought to involve muscular hyperplasia, increased pressure, and finally, decompensation. While these things probably do occur, the process of bladder response to obstruction also includes loss of reflex control and deposition of collagen.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/47058/1/345_2004_Article_BF00327002.pd

Circulating microRNAs Reveal Time Course of Organ Injury in a Porcine Model of Acetaminophen-Induced Acute Liver Failure

Acute liver failure is a rare but catastrophic condition which can progress rapidly to multi-organ failure. Studies investigating the onset of individual organ injury such as the liver, kidneys and brain during the evolution of acute liver failure, are lacking. MicroRNAs are short, non-coding strands of RNA that are released into the circulation following tissue injury. In this study, we have characterised the release of both global microRNA and specific microRNA species into the plasma using a porcine model of acetaminophen-induced acute liver failure. Pigs were induced to acute liver failure with oral acetaminophen over 19h±2h and death occurred 13h±3h thereafter. Global microRNA concentrations increased 4h prior to acute liver failure in plasma (P<0.0001) but not in isolated exosomes, and were associated with increasing plasma levels of the damage-associated molecular pattern molecule, genomic DNA (P<0.0001). MiR122 increased around the time of onset of acute liver failure (P<0.0001) and was associated with increasing international normalised ratio (P<0.0001). MiR192 increased 8h after acute liver failure (P<0.0001) and was associated with increasing creatinine (P<0.0001). The increase in miR124-1 occurred concurrent with the pre-terminal increase in intracranial pressure (P<0.0001) and was associated with decreasing cerebral perfusion pressure (P<0.002)

Effects of Grassland Management Practices on Ant Functional Groups in Central North America

Tallgrass prairies of central North America have experienced disturbances including fire and grazing for millennia. Little is known about the effects of these disturbances on prairie ants, even though ants are thought to play major roles in ecosystem maintenance. We implemented three management treatments on remnant and restored grassland tracts in the central U.S., and compared the effects of treatment on abundance of ant functional groups. Management treatments were: (1) patch-burn graze—rotational burning of three spatially distinct patches within a fenced tract, and growing-season cattle grazing; (2) graze-and-burn—burning entire tract every 3 years, and growing-season cattle grazing, and (3) burn-only—burning entire tract every 3 years, but no cattle grazing. Ant species were classified into one of four functional groups. Opportunist ants and the dominant ant species, Formica montana, were more abundant in burn-only tracts than tracts managed with either of the grazing treatments. Generalists were more abundant in graze-and-burn tracts than in burn-only tracts. Abundance of F. montana was negatively associated with pre-treatment time since fire, whereas generalist ant abundance was positively associated. F. montanawere more abundant in restored tracts than remnants, whereas the opposite was true for subdominants and opportunists. In summary, abundance of the dominant F. montana increased in response to intense disturbances that were followed by quick recovery of plant biomass. Generalist ant abundance decreased in response to those disturbances, which we attribute to the effects of competitive dominance of F. montana upon the generalists