Controlling epidemic spread by social distancing: Do it well or not at all

BACKGROUND: Existing epidemiological models have largely tended to neglect the impact of individual behaviour on the dynamics of diseases. However, awareness of the presence of illness can cause people to change their behaviour by, for example, staying at home and avoiding social contacts. Such changes can be used to control epidemics but they exact an economic cost. Our aim is to study the costs and benefits of using individual-based social distancing undertaken by healthy individuals as a form of control.METHODS: Our model is a standard SIR model superimposed on a spatial network, without and with addition of small-world interactions. Disease spread is controlled by allowing susceptible individuals to temporarily reduce their social contacts in response to the presence of infection within their local neighbourhood. We ascribe an economic cost to the loss of social contacts, and weigh this against the economic benefit gained by reducing the impact of the epidemic. We study the sensitivity of the results to two key parameters, the individuals' attitude to risk and the size of the awareness neighbourhood.RESULTS: Depending on the characteristics of the epidemic and on the relative economic importance of making contacts versus avoiding infection, the optimal control is one of two extremes: either to adopt a highly cautious control, thereby suppressing the epidemic quickly by drastically reducing contacts as soon as disease is detected; or else to forego control and allow the epidemic to run its course. The worst outcome arises when control is attempted, but not cautiously enough to cause the epidemic to be suppressed. The next main result comes from comparing the size of the neighbourhood of which individuals are aware to that of the neighbourhood within which transmission can occur. The control works best when these sizes match and is particularly ineffective when the awareness neighbourhood is smaller than the infection neighbourhood. The results are robust with respect to inclusion of long-range, small-world links which destroy the spatial structure, regardless of whether individuals can or cannot control them. However, addition of many non-local links eventually makes control ineffective.CONCLUSIONS: These results have implications for the design of control strategies using social distancing: a control that is too weak or based upon inaccurate knowledge, may give a worse outcome than doing nothing

Human resources for health policies: a critical component in health policies

In the last few years, increasing attention has been paid to the development of health policies. But side by side with the presumed benefits of policy, many analysts share the opinion that a major drawback of health policies is their failure to make room for issues of human resources. Current approaches in human resources suggest a number of weaknesses: a reactive, ad hoc attitude towards problems of human resources; dispersal of accountability within human resources management (HRM); a limited notion of personnel administration that fails to encompass all aspects of HRM; and finally the short-term perspective of HRM. There are three broad arguments for modernizing the ways in which human resources for health are managed: • the central role of the workforce in the health sector; • the various challenges thrown up by health system reforms; • the need to anticipate the effect on the health workforce (and consequently on service provision) arising from various macroscopic social trends impinging on health systems. The absence of appropriate human resources policies is responsible, in many countries, for a chronic imbalance with multifaceted effects on the health workforce: quantitative mismatch, qualitative disparity, unequal distribution and a lack of coordination between HRM actions and health policy needs. Four proposals have been put forward to modernize how the policy process is conducted in the development of human resources for health (HRH): • to move beyond the traditional approach of personnel administration to a more global concept of HRM; • to give more weight to the integrated, interdependent and systemic nature of the different components of HRM when preparing and implementing policy; • to foster a more proactive attitude among human resources (HR) policy-makers and managers; • to promote the full commitment of all professionals and sectors in all phases of the process. The development of explicit human resources policies is a crucial link in health policies and is needed both to address the imbalances of the health workforce and to foster implementation of the health services reforms

Toxicity of abamectin to the terrestrial isopod Porcellio scaber (Isopoda, Crustacea).

To determine effects of the antiparasitic veterinary drug abamectin on the isopod Porcellio scaber, animals were exposed for 21 days to Lufa 2.2 soil spiked at concentrations of 3-300 mg/kg dry soil. After exposure, abamectin residues in the isopods were analysed using a novel analytical method. Toxicity was evaluated on different levels of biological organisation: biochemical, cellular and the individual organism. Measurements included glutathione S-transferase (GST) activity and stability of cell membranes in the digestive gland, animal mass gain or loss, food consumption, behaviour and mortality. LC50 for the effect of abamectin on survival of P. scaber was 71 mg/kg dry soil. The most obvious sublethal effects were reduced food consumption and decreased body mass (NOEC 3 mg/kg dry soil). Additionally, loss of digging activity and reduced GST activity (NOEC 30 mg/kg dry soil) and cell membrane destabilization (NOEC 10 mg/kg dry soil) were recorded. Abamectin only slightly accumulated in the isopods, with bioaccumulation factors always being <0.1. Based on these results and current information on environmental levels of abamectin, it is not likely that isopods will be affected by abamectin, but further studies with exposure through faeces are recommended. © 2010 Springer Science+Business Media, LLC

A retrospective analysis to explore the applicability of fish biomarkers and sediment bioassays along contaminated salinity transects

Biological-effects monitoring in estuarine environments is complex as a result of strong gradients and fluctuations in salinity and other environmental conditions, which may influence contaminant bioavailability and the physiology and metabolism of the organisms. To select the most robust and reliable biological-effect methods for monitoring and assessment programmes, a large-scale field study was conducted in two estuarine transects in the Netherlands. The locations ranged from heavily polluted harbour areas (the ports of Rotterdam and Amsterdam) to cleaner coastal and freshwater sites. Assessment methods used included a variety of biomarkers in flounder (Platichthys flesus) and a range of in vitro (sediment extracts) and in vivo bioassays. Multivariate statistical analysis was applied to investigate correlations and relationships between various biological effects and contaminant levels in flounder liver or sediments. Several biological methods seemed to be too much affected by salinity differences for routine use in estuaries. The most discriminative biomarkers in the study were hepatic metallothionein content and biliary 1-OH pyrene in fish. Mechanism-based in vitro assays DR-CALUX and ER-CALUX applied to sediment extracts for screening of potential toxicity were much more responsive than in vivo bioassays with macro-invertebrates using survival as an endpoin