Uncertainty-based decision-making in fire safety: Analyzing the alternatives

Large accidents throughout the 20th century marked the development of safety fields in engineering, devoted to better identify hazards, understand risks and properly manage them. As these fields evolved rather quickly and moved from a compliance to a risk-based approach, a significant delay in this transition was experienced in fire safety engineering (FSE). Devastating fires well into the 21st century and the restrictive nature of prescriptive codes signaled the need to transition towards a performance-based one. A performance-based approach provides flexibility and capitalizes on learning from accidental events and engineering disciplines such as process safety and FSE. This work provides an overview of the main alternatives to account for uncertainty in safety studies within the context of FSE, including traditional probabilistic analyses and emerging approaches such as strength of knowledge. A simple example is used to illustrate the impact of the uncertainty analysis on the results of a simple fire safety assessment. A structured evaluation is performed on each alternative to assess its ease of implementation and communication. The outcome is a compendium of advantages and disadvantages of the alternatives that constitute a toolbox for fire safety engineers to configure and use within their fire risk assessments. Process safety engineers are expected to gain an understanding of the similar and important challenges of FSE, being it directly relevant for process risk management and fire risk management in administrative buildings

Overcoming risk assessment limitations for potential fires in a multi-occupancy building

Decision-making under risk has been a key issue in systems with a potential for major losses such as chemical process industries (Bhopal - 1984, Toulouse - 2001) or high occupancy buildings (World Trade Center - 2001, Grenfell Tower - 2017). For the past decades, engineering disciplines have supported risk management decision-making through the implementation of risk assessments using quantitative approaches. The popularity of this approach relates to the quantitative definition of risk given by Kaplan in 1981, who decomposed risk into a set of scenarios, probability of occurrence and consequences. Recently, research on quantitative risk assessments (QRA) has reported key limitations on identifying the set of scenarios and estimating their probability of occurrence. These limitations may lead to uncertainties of up to three orders of magnitude that affect the QRA’s ability of delivering reliable information to stakeholders. This research uses an alternative definition of risk and applies it to a case study of a multi-occupancy building in the event of a fire. The proposed approach quantifies the maximum damage potential (MDP) of the system when all the active safety measures are allowed to fail, even those with low failure frequencies. The system’s MDP is compared to its maximum allowable damage (MAD), which is previously defined by the stakeholders. This approach allows defining design modifications and operational rules aiding the development of the building’s fire safety strategy. Finally, a comparison between the obtained results and a typical QRA is used to comment on the suitability of the proposed approach when evaluating risk in complex systems

Lower Respiratory Tract Infection Induced by a Genetically Modified Picornavirus in Its Natural Murine Host

Infections with the picornavirus, human rhinovirus (HRV), are a major cause of wheezing illnesses and asthma exacerbations. In developing a murine model of picornaviral airway infection, we noted the absence of murine rhinoviruses and that mice are not natural hosts for HRV. The picornavirus, mengovirus, induces lethal systemic infections in its natural murine hosts, but small genetic differences can profoundly affect picornaviral tropism and virulence. We demonstrate that inhalation of a genetically attenuated mengovirus, vMC0, induces lower respiratory tract infections in mice. After intranasal vMC0 inoculation, lung viral titers increased, peaking at 24 h postinoculation with viral shedding persisting for 5 days, whereas HRV-A01a lung viral titers decreased and were undetectable 24 h after intranasal inoculation. Inhalation of vMC0, but not vehicle or UV-inactivated vMC0, induced an acute respiratory illness, with body weight loss and lower airway inflammation, characterized by increased numbers of airway neutrophils and lymphocytes and elevated pulmonary expression of neutrophil chemoattractant CXCR2 ligands (CXCL1, CXCL2, CXCL5) and interleukin-17A. Mice inoculated with vMC0, compared with those inoculated with vehicle or UV-inactivated vMC0, exhibited increased pulmonary expression of interferon (IFN-α, IFN-β, IFN-λ), viral RNA sensors [toll-like receptor (TLR)3, TLR7, nucleotide-binding oligomerization domain containing 2 (NOD2)], and chemokines associated with HRV infection in humans (CXCL10, CCL2). Inhalation of vMC0, but not vehicle or UV-inactivated vMC0, was accompanied by increased airway fluid myeloperoxidase levels, an indicator of neutrophil activation, increased MUC5B gene expression, and lung edema, a sign of infection-related lung injury. Consistent with experimental HRV inoculations of nonallergic, nonasthmatic human subjects, there were no effects on airway hyperresponsiveness after inhalation of vMC0 by healthy mice. This novel murine model of picornaviral airway infection and inflammation should be useful for defining mechanisms of HRV pathogenesis in humans

Surface features, rotation and atmospheric variability of ultra cool dwarfs

Photometric I band light curves of 21 ultra cool M and L dwarfs are presented. Variability with amplitudes of 0.01 to 0.055 magnitudes (RMS) with typical timescales of an hour to several hours are discovered in half of these objects. Periodic variability is discovered in a few cases, but interestingly several variable objects show no significant periods, even though the observations were almost certainly sensitive to the expected rotation periods. It is argued that in these cases the variability is due to the evolution of the surface features on timescales of a few hours. This is supported in the case of 2M1145 for which no common period is found in two separate light curves. It is speculated that these features are photospheric dust clouds, with their evolution possibly driven by rotation and turbulence. An alternative possibility is magnetically-induced surface features. However, chromospheric activity undergoes a sharp decrease between M7 and L1, whereas a greater occurrence of variability is observed in objects later than M9, lending support to the dust interpretation.Comment: To appear in "Ultracool Dwarf Stars" (Lecture Notes in Physics), H.R.A. Jones, I. Steele (eds), Springer-Verlag, 2001. Also available from http://www.mpia-hd.mpg.de/homes/calj/ultra.htm

First Colombian Multicentric Newborn Screening for Congenital Toxoplasmosis

Congenital toxoplasmosis can result in permanent sequel as blindness or neurological damage in children and it seems to be more severe in South America than in other continents. There is a lack of information about this frequency in Colombia, where no control program is established, although it is a recognized cause of potentially preventable congenital blindness. We propose the first Colombian multicentric study to determine the frequency and impact of congenital toxoplasmosis. More than 15,000 newborns in seven cities were studied. Newborns were tested at birth by doing a cord blood test for toxoplasmosis. Additionally, children from mothers with history of toxoplasmosis acquired during pregnancy were recalled for a follow-up. The program identified fifteen children otherwise undiagnosed; three of these children died as consequence of congenital toxoplasmosis. The frequency of the congenital infection varied significantly between cities, being higher in Armenia and Florencia, intermediate in Bogota, Bucaramanga and Barranquilla and very low in western cities such as Cucuta and Riohacha. For the first time a significant correlation was found between mean rainfall at the city and the incidence of this congenital infection

Human Wavelength Discrimination of Monochromatic Light Explained by Optimal Wavelength Decoding of Light of Unknown Intensity

We show that human ability to discriminate the wavelength of monochromatic light can be understood as maximum likelihood decoding of the cone absorptions, with a signal processing efficiency that is independent of the wavelength. This work is built on the framework of ideal observer analysis of visual discrimination used in many previous works. A distinctive aspect of our work is that we highlight a perceptual confound that observers should confuse a change in input light wavelength with a change in input intensity. Hence a simple ideal observer model which assumes that an observer has a full knowledge of input intensity should over-estimate human ability in discriminating wavelengths of two inputs of unequal intensity. This confound also makes it difficult to consistently measure human ability in wavelength discrimination by asking observers to distinguish two input colors while matching their brightness. We argue that the best experimental method for reliable measurement of discrimination thresholds is the one of Pokorny and Smith, in which observers only need to distinguish two inputs, regardless of whether they differ in hue or brightness. We mathematically formulate wavelength discrimination under this wavelength-intensity confound and show a good agreement between our theoretical prediction and the behavioral data. Our analysis explains why the discrimination threshold varies with the input wavelength, and shows how sensitively the threshold depends on the relative densities of the three types of cones in the retina (and in particular predict discriminations in dichromats). Our mathematical formulation and solution can be applied to general problems of sensory discrimination when there is a perceptual confound from other sensory feature dimensions

Using the Tg(nrd:egfp)/albino Zebrafish Line to Characterize In Vivo Expression of neurod

In this study, we used a newly-created transgenic zebrafish, Tg(nrd:egfp)/albino, to further characterize the expression of neurod in the developing and adult retina and to determine neurod expression during adult photoreceptor regeneration. We also provide observations regarding the expression of neurod in a variety of other tissues. In this line, EGFP is found in cells of the developing and adult retina, pineal gland, cerebellum, olfactory bulbs, midbrain, hindbrain, neural tube, lateral line, inner ear, pancreas, gut, and fin. Using immunohistochemistry and in situ hybridization, we compare the expression of the nrd:egfp transgene to that of endogenous neurod and to known retinal cell types. Consistent with previous data based on in situ hybridizations, we show that during retinal development, the nrd:egfp transgene is not expressed in proliferating retinal neuroepithelium, and is expressed in a subset of retinal neurons. In contrast to previous studies, nrd:egfp is gradually re-expressed in all rod photoreceptors. During photoreceptor regeneration in adult zebrafish, in situ hybridization reveals that neurod is not expressed in Müller glial-derived neuronal progenitors, but is expressed in photoreceptor progenitors as they migrate to the outer nuclear layer and differentiate into new rod photoreceptors. During photoreceptor regeneration, expression of the nrd:egfp matches that of neurod. We conclude that Tg(nrd:egfp)/albino is a good representation of endogenous neurod expression, is a useful tool to visualize neurod expression in a variety of tissues and will aid investigating the fundamental processes that govern photoreceptor regeneration in adults