Understanding bicycling in cities using system dynamics modelling

BACKGROUND: Increasing urban bicycling has established net benefits for human and environmental health. Questions remain about which policies are needed and in what order, to achieve an increase in cycling while avoiding negative consequences. Novel ways of considering cycling policy are needed, bringing together expertise across policy, community and research to develop a shared understanding of the dynamically complex cycling system. In this paper we use a collaborative learning process to develop a dynamic causal model of urban cycling to develop consensus about the nature and order of policies needed in different cycling contexts to optimise outcomes. METHODS: We used participatory system dynamics modelling to develop causal loop diagrams (CLDs) of cycling in three contrasting contexts: Auckland, London and Nijmegen. We combined qualitative interviews and workshops to develop the CLDs. We used the three CLDs to compare and contrast influences on cycling at different points on a “cycling trajectory” and drew out policy insights. RESULTS: The three CLDs consisted of feedback loops dynamically influencing cycling, with significant overlap between the three diagrams. Common reinforcing patterns emerged: growing numbers of people cycling lifts political will to improve the environment; cycling safety in numbers drives further growth; and more cycling can lead to normalisation across the population. By contrast, limits to growth varied as cycling increases. In Auckland and London, real and perceived danger was considered the main limit, with added barriers to normalisation in London. Cycling congestion and “market saturation” were important in the Netherlands. CONCLUSIONS: A generalisable, dynamic causal theory for urban cycling enables a more ordered set of policy recommendations for different cities on a cycling trajectory. Participation meant the collective knowledge of cycling stakeholders was represented and triangulated with research evidence. Extending this research to further cities, especially in low-middle income countries, would enhance generalizability of the CLDs.This research was funded by an MRC Centenary grant. JW's contribution was supported by an MRC Population Health Scientist Fellowship (MR/K021796/1). The work occurred under the auspices of the Centre for Diet and Activity Research (CEDAR), a UKCRC Public Health Research Centre of Excellence funded by the British Heart Foundation, Cancer Research UK, Economic and Social Research Council, Medical Research Council, the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR), and the Wellcome Trust (MR/K023187/1)

Health and Greenhouse Gas Mitigation Benefits of Ambitious Expansion of Cycling, Walking, and Transit in California

The purpose of this research was to quantify health co-benefits and carbon reductions of preferred scenarios of California regional transportation plans and alternatives with ambitious levels of active transport. The alternatives were designed to examine the efficacy of independent contributions of walking, bicycling, and transit at levels consistent with the U.S. Surgeon General recommendation for physical activity. Using data from travel and health surveys, vital statistics, collision databases, and outputs from regional and statewide travel models, the Integrated Transport and Health Impacts Model estimated the change in the population disease burden, as measured by deaths and disability adjusted life years (DALYs), due to a shift from a 2010 baseline travel pattern to an alternative. Health pathways modeled were physical activity and road traffic injuries. The preferred scenarios increased statewide active transport from 40.5 to 53.4 min.person-1w-1, which was associated with an annual decrease of 909 deaths and 16,089 DALYs. Sensitivity analyses that accounted for 2040 projected age- and sex-specific population characteristics and cause-specific mortality rates did not appreciably alter the annual change in deaths and DALYs on a population basis. The ambitious, maximal alternatives increased population mean travel duration to 283 min.person-1w-1 for walking, bicycling, or transit and were associated a reduction in deaths and DALYs from 2.5 to 12 times greater than the California preferred scenarios. The alternative with the largest health impact was bicycling 283 min.person-1w-1 which led to 8,543 fewer annual deaths and 194,003 fewer DALYs, despite an increase in bicyclist injuries. With anticipated population growth, no alternative achieved decreases in carbon emissions but bicycling had the greatest potential for slowing their growth. Alternatives that included transit similarly reduced carbon emissions, but with less health benefit. Aggressive expansion of active transport is an efficacious, but underutilized policy option with significant health co-benefits for mitigating greenhouse gases.We gratefully acknowledge the Metropolitan Transportation Commission, the Fresno Council of Governments, and the Southern California Association of Governments for providing travel data. Dr. Woodcock’s contribution was undertaken under the auspices of the Centre for Diet and Activity Research (CEDAR), a UKCRC Public Health Research Centre of Excellence which is funded by the British Heart Foundation, Cancer Research UK, Economic and Social Research Council, Medical Research Council, the National Institute for Health Research, and the Wellcome Trust

Exploration of a potent PI3 kinase/mTOR inhibitor as a novel anti-fibrotic agent in IPF

© 2016 BMJ Publishing Group Ltd & British Thoracic Society.Rationale Idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) is the most rapidly progressive and fatal of all fibrotic conditions with no curative therapies. Common pathomechanisms between IPF and cancer are increasingly recognised, including dysfunctional pan-PI3 kinase (PI3K) signalling as a driver of aberrant proliferative responses. GSK2126458 is a novel, potent, PI3K/mammalian target of rapamycin (mTOR) inhibitor which has recently completed phase I trials in the oncology setting. Our aim was to establish a scientific and dosing framework for PI3K inhibition with this agent in IPF at a clinically developable dose. Methods We explored evidence for pathway signalling in IPF lung tissue and examined the potency of GSK2126458 in fibroblast functional assays and precision-cut IPF lung tissue. We further explored the potential of IPF patient-derived bronchoalveolar lavage (BAL) cells to serve as pharmacodynamic biosensors to monitor GSK2126458 target engagement within the lung. Results We provide evidence for PI3K pathway activation in fibrotic foci, the cardinal lesions in IPF. GSK2126458 inhibited PI3K signalling and functional responses in IPF-derived lung fibroblasts, inhibiting Akt phosphorylation in IPF lung tissue and BAL derived cells with comparable potency. Integration of these data with GSK2126458 pharmacokinetic data from clinical trials in cancer enabled modelling of an optimal dosing regimen for patients with IPF. Conclusions Our data define PI3K as a promising therapeutic target in IPF and provide a scientific and dosing framework for progressing GSK2126458 to clinical testing in this disease setting. A proof-ofmechanism trial of this agent is currently underway. Trial registration number NCT01725139, pre-clinical

Author Correction: The mTORC1/4E-BP1 axis represents a critical signaling node during fibrogenesis

Correction to: Nature Communications https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-018-07858-8, published online 2 January 2019

Randomised controlled trials for evaluating the prescribing impact of information meetings led by pharmacists and of new information formats, in General Practice in Italy

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Suboptimal translation of valid and relevant information in clinical practice is a problem for all health systems. Lack of information independent from commercial influences, limited efforts to actively implement evidence-based information and its limited comprehensibility are important determinants of this gap and may influence an excessive variability in physicians' prescriptions. This is quite noticeable in Italy, where the philosophy and methods of Evidence-Based Medicine still enjoy limited diffusion among practitioners. Academic detailing and pharmacist outreach visits are interventions of proven efficacy to make independent and evidence-based information available to physicians; this approach and its feasibility have not yet been tested on a large scale and, moreover, they have never been formally tested in Italy.</p> <p>Methods/Design</p> <p>Two RCTs are planned:</p> <p>1) a two-arm cluster RCT, carried out in Emilia-Romagna and Friuli Venezia Giulia, will evaluate the effectiveness of small group meetings, randomising about 150 Primary Care Groups (corresponding to about 2000 GPs) to pharmacist outreach visits on two different topics. Physicians' prescriptions (expressed as DDD per 1000 inhabitants/day), knowledge and attitudes (evaluated through the answers to a specific questionnaire) will be compared for target drugs in the two groups (receiving/not receiving each topic).</p> <p>2) A three-arm RCT, carried out in Sardinia, will evaluate both the effectiveness of one-to-one meetings (one pharmacist visiting one physician per time) and of a 'new' information format (compared to information already available) on changing physicians' prescription of specific drugs. About 900 single GPs will be randomised into three groups: physicians receiving a visit supported by "traditional" information material, those receiving a visit with "new" information material on the same topic and those not receiving any visit/material.</p> <p>Discussion</p> <p>The two proposed RCTs aim to evaluate the organisational feasibility and barriers to the implementation of independent information programs led by NHS pharmacists. The objective to assess a 10 or 15% decreases in the prescription of the targeted drugs is quite ambitious in such 'natural' settings, which will be minimally altered by the interventions themselves; this in spite of the quite large sample sizes used comparing to other studies of these kind. Complex interventions like these are not easy to evaluate, given the many different variables into play. Anyway, the pragmatic nature of the two RCTs appears to be also one of their major strengths, helping to provide a deeper insight on what is possible to achieve – in terms of independent information – in a National Health System, with special reference to Italy.</p> <p>Trial registration</p> <p>ISRCTN05866587 (cluster RCT) and ISRCTN28525676 (single GPs RCT)</p

Declining resilience of ecosystem functions under biodiversity loss

The composition of species communities is changing rapidly through drivers such as habitat loss and climate change, with potentially serious consequences for the resilience of ecosystem functions on which humans depend. To assess such changes in resilience, we analyse trends in the frequency of species in Great Britain that provide key ecosystem functions-specifically decomposition, carbon sequestration, pollination, pest control and cultural values. For 4,424 species over four decades, there have been significant net declines among animal species that provide pollination, pest control and cultural values. Groups providing decomposition and carbon sequestration remain relatively stable, as fewer species are in decline and these are offset by large numbers of new arrivals into Great Britain. While there is general concern about degradation of a wide range of ecosystem functions, our results suggest actions should focus on particular functions for which there is evidence of substantial erosion of their resilience

Chromatin compaction in terminally differentiated avian blood cells: the role of linker histone H5 and non-histone protein MENT

Chromatin has a tendency to shift from a relatively decondensed (active) to condensed (inactive) state during cell differentiation due to interactions of specific architectural and/or regulatory proteins with DNA. A promotion of chromatin folding in terminally differentiated avian blood cells requires the presence of either histone H5 in erythrocytes or non-histone protein, myeloid and erythroid nuclear termination stage-specific protein (MENT), in white blood cells (lymphocytes and granulocytes). These highly abundant proteins assist in folding of nucleosome arrays and self-association of chromatin fibers into compacted chromatin structures. Here, we briefly review structural aspects and molecular mode of action by which these unrelated proteins can spread condensed chromatin to form inactivated regions in the genome

The 3′ UTR Variants in the GRP78 Are Not Associated with Overall Survival in Resectable Hepatocellular Carcinoma

Background: Elevated glucose-regulated protein 78 (GRP78) levels in tissues have been known to be related with poor prognosis in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients. Though the variants in the 3′ untranslated region (UTR) of GRP78 gene were not associated with HCC risk, we wonder whether these polymorphisms affect survival of HCC patients. Methodology/Principal Findings: Blood samples of HCC patients were maintained in our specimen bank between 1996 to 2003. DNA from 576 unrelated and resectable patients with HCC was typed for rs16927997 (T>C), rs1140763 (T>C) and rs12009 (T>C) by TaqMan assays. The Kaplan-Meier method and log-rank test were used to estimate overall survival. Linkage disequilibrium (LD) analysis identified a total of 3 haplotypes and 6 diplotypes in this region. The distribution of haplotype was not related to the clinical characteristics. Univariate analysis showed that the allele, genotype, haplotype and diplotype did not effect the survival. None of the clinical features show a significant association (P correced>0.05) with overall patient outcome in multiple comparisons. Conclusions/Significance: There is no noteworthy influence of 3′ UTR variants in the GRP78 on prognosis of resectable HCC in the Chinese population. © 2011 Zhu et al.published_or_final_versio

Quality of interaction between primary health-care providers and patients with type 2 diabetes in Muscat, Oman: an observational study

BACKGROUND: A good patient-physician interaction is particularly important in chronic diseases like diabetes. There are so far no published data regarding the interaction between the primary health-care providers and patients with type 2 diabetes in Oman, where diabetes is a major and growing health problem. This study aimed at exploring how health-care providers interact with patients with type 2 diabetes at primary health-care level in Muscat, Oman, focusing on the consultation environment, and some aspects of care and information. METHODS: Direct observations of 90 consultations between 23 doctors and 13 diabetes nurses concerned with diabetes management during their consultations with type 2 diabetes patients in six primary health-care centres in the Muscat region, using checklists developed from the National Diabetes Guidelines. Consultations were assessed as optimal if more than 75% of observed aspects were fulfilled and sub-optimal if less than 50% were fulfilled. RESULTS: Overall 52% of the doctors' consultations were not optimal. Some important aspects for a positive consultation environment were fulfilled in only about half of the doctors' consultations: ensuring privacy of consultation (49%), eye contact (49%), good attention (52%), encouraging asking questions (47%), and emphasizing on the patients' understanding of the provided information (52%). The doctors enquired about adverse effects of anti-diabetes drugs in less than 10% of consultations. The quality of the nurses' consultations was sub-optimal in about 75% of 85 consultations regarding aspects of consultation environment, care and information. CONCLUSION: The performance of the primary health-care doctors and diabetes nurses needs to be improved. The role of the diabetes nurses and the teamwork should be enhanced. We suggest a multidisciplinary team approach, training and education to the providers to upgrade their skills regarding communication and care. Barriers to compliance with the guidelines need to be further explored. Improving the work situation mainly for the diabetes nurses and further improvement in the organizational efficiency of diabetes services such as lowering the number of patients in diabetes clinic, are suggested