Understanding bicycling in cities using system dynamics modelling

BACKGROUND: Increasing urban bicycling has established net benefits for human and environmental health. Questions remain about which policies are needed and in what order, to achieve an increase in cycling while avoiding negative consequences. Novel ways of considering cycling policy are needed, bringing together expertise across policy, community and research to develop a shared understanding of the dynamically complex cycling system. In this paper we use a collaborative learning process to develop a dynamic causal model of urban cycling to develop consensus about the nature and order of policies needed in different cycling contexts to optimise outcomes. METHODS: We used participatory system dynamics modelling to develop causal loop diagrams (CLDs) of cycling in three contrasting contexts: Auckland, London and Nijmegen. We combined qualitative interviews and workshops to develop the CLDs. We used the three CLDs to compare and contrast influences on cycling at different points on a “cycling trajectory” and drew out policy insights. RESULTS: The three CLDs consisted of feedback loops dynamically influencing cycling, with significant overlap between the three diagrams. Common reinforcing patterns emerged: growing numbers of people cycling lifts political will to improve the environment; cycling safety in numbers drives further growth; and more cycling can lead to normalisation across the population. By contrast, limits to growth varied as cycling increases. In Auckland and London, real and perceived danger was considered the main limit, with added barriers to normalisation in London. Cycling congestion and “market saturation” were important in the Netherlands. CONCLUSIONS: A generalisable, dynamic causal theory for urban cycling enables a more ordered set of policy recommendations for different cities on a cycling trajectory. Participation meant the collective knowledge of cycling stakeholders was represented and triangulated with research evidence. Extending this research to further cities, especially in low-middle income countries, would enhance generalizability of the CLDs.This research was funded by an MRC Centenary grant. JW's contribution was supported by an MRC Population Health Scientist Fellowship (MR/K021796/1). The work occurred under the auspices of the Centre for Diet and Activity Research (CEDAR), a UKCRC Public Health Research Centre of Excellence funded by the British Heart Foundation, Cancer Research UK, Economic and Social Research Council, Medical Research Council, the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR), and the Wellcome Trust (MR/K023187/1)

TUIs vs. GUIs : comparing the learning potential with preschoolers

In an effort to better understand the learning potential of a tangible interface, we conducted a comparison study between a tangible and a traditional graphical user interface for teaching preschoolers (In Portugal, children enter preschool at the age of three and they attend it till entering school, normally at the age of six) about good oral hygiene. The study was carried with two groups of children aged 4 to 5 years. Questionnaires to parents, children’s drawings, and interviews were used for data collection and analysis and revealed important indicators about children’s change of attitude, involvement, and preferences for the interfaces. The questionnaires showed a remarkable change of attitude toward tooth brushing in the children that interacted with the tangible interface; particularly children’s motivation increased significantly. Children’s drawings were used to assess their degree of involvement with the interfaces. The drawings from the children that interacted with the tangible interface were very complete and detailed suggesting that the children felt actively involved with the experience. The results suggest that the tangible interface was capable of promoting a stronger and long-lasting involvement having a greater potential to engage children, therefore potentially promoting learning. Evaluation through drawing seems to be a promising method to work with preliterate children; however,it is advisable to use it together with other methods.Fundação para a Ciência e Tecnologia (FCT

The origin of large molecules in primordial autocatalytic reaction networks

Large molecules such as proteins and nucleic acids are crucial for life, yet their primordial origin remains a major puzzle. The production of large molecules, as we know it today, requires good catalysts, and the only good catalysts we know that can accomplish this task consist of large molecules. Thus the origin of large molecules is a chicken and egg problem in chemistry. Here we present a mechanism, based on autocatalytic sets (ACSs), that is a possible solution to this problem. We discuss a mathematical model describing the population dynamics of molecules in a stylized but prebiotically plausible chemistry. Large molecules can be produced in this chemistry by the coalescing of smaller ones, with the smallest molecules, the `food set', being buffered. Some of the reactions can be catalyzed by molecules within the chemistry with varying catalytic strengths. Normally the concentrations of large molecules in such a scenario are very small, diminishing exponentially with their size. ACSs, if present in the catalytic network, can focus the resources of the system into a sparse set of molecules. ACSs can produce a bistability in the population dynamics and, in particular, steady states wherein the ACS molecules dominate the population. However to reach these steady states from initial conditions that contain only the food set typically requires very large catalytic strengths, growing exponentially with the size of the catalyst molecule. We present a solution to this problem by studying `nested ACSs', a structure in which a small ACS is connected to a larger one and reinforces it. We show that when the network contains a cascade of nested ACSs with the catalytic strengths of molecules increasing gradually with their size (e.g., as a power law), a sparse subset of molecules including some very large molecules can come to dominate the system.Comment: 49 pages, 17 figures including supporting informatio

Health-seeking behaviour of human brucellosis cases in rural Tanzania

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Brucellosis is known to cause debilitating conditions if not promptly treated. In some rural areas of Tanzania however, practitioners give evidence of seeing brucellosis cases with symptoms of long duration. The purpose of this study was to establish health-seeking behaviour of human brucellosis cases in rural Tanzania and explore the most feasible ways to improve it.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>This was designed as a longitudinal study. Socio-demographic, clinical and laboratory data were collected from patients who reported to selected hospitals in rural northern Tanzania between June 2002 and April 2003. All patients with conditions suspicious of brucellosis on the basis of preliminary clinical examination and history were enrolled into the study as brucellosis suspects. Blood samples were taken and tested for brucellosis using the Rose-Bengal Plate Test (RBPT) and other agglutination tests available at the health facilities and the competitive ELISA (c-ELISA) test at the Veterinary Laboratory Agencies (VLA) in the UK. All suspects who tested positive with the c-ELISA test were regarded as brucellosis cases. A follow-up of 49 cases was made to collect data on health-seeking behaviour of human brucellosis cases.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The majority of cases 87.7% gave a history of going to hospital as the first point of care, 10.2% purchased drugs from a nearby drug shop before going to hospital and 2% went to a local traditional healer first. Brucellosis cases delayed going to hospital with a median delay time of 90 days, and with 20% of the cases presenting to hospitals more than a year after the onset of symptoms. Distance to the hospital, keeping animals and knowledge of brucellosis were significantly associated with patient delay to present to hospital.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>More efforts need to be put on improving the accessibility of health facilities to the rural poor people who succumb to most of the diseases including zoonoses. Health education on brucellosis in Tanzania should also stress the importance of early presentation to hospitals for prompt treatment.</p

Patterns of Childhood Trauma and Psychological Distress among Injecting Heroin Users in China

Background: Childhood trauma has been reported as a possible cause of future substance abuse in some countries. This study reports the prevalence of childhood trauma and examines its association with psychological distress among injecting drug users from mainland China. Methodology: The study was conducted in three government-operated drug rehabilitation facilities in Shanghai, China in 2007. The Early Trauma Inventory Self Report-Short Form (ETISR-SF) was used to evaluate 4 types (general, emotional, physical and sexual) and severity of childhood trauma, and the Symptom Checklist-90-Revised (SCL-90-R) to evaluate psychological distress. Principal Findings: Among 341 injecting drug users who completed the study, about 80 % reported one or more types o

Hippocampal volume in early onset depression

BACKGROUND: Abnormalities in limbic structures have been implicated in major depressive disorder (MDD). Although MDD is as common in adolescence as in adulthood, few studies have examined youth near illness onset in order to determine the possible influence of atypical development on the pathophysiology of this disorder. METHODS: Hippocampal volumes were measured in 17 MDD subjects (age = 16.67 ± 1.83 years [mean ± SD]; range = 13 – 18 years) and 17 age- and sex-matched healthy controls (16.23 ± 1.61 years [mean ± SD]; 13 – 18 years) using magnetic resonance imaging (MRI). RESULTS: An analysis of covariance revealed a significant difference between MDD and control subjects (F = 8.66, df = 1, 29, P = 0.006). This was more strongly localized to the left hippocampus (P = 0.001) than the right hippocampus (P = 0.047). CONCLUSIONS: Our findings provide new evidence of abnormalities in the hippocampus in early onset depression. However, our results should be considered preliminary given the small sample size studied

Dynamic Integration of Reward and Stimulus Information in Perceptual Decision-Making

In perceptual decision-making, ideal decision-makers should bias their choices toward alternatives associated with larger rewards, and the extent of the bias should decrease as stimulus sensitivity increases. When responses must be made at different times after stimulus onset, stimulus sensitivity grows with time from zero to a final asymptotic level. Are decision makers able to produce responses that are more biased if they are made soon after stimulus onset, but less biased if they are made after more evidence has been accumulated? If so, how close to optimal can they come in doing this, and how might their performance be achieved mechanistically? We report an experiment in which the payoff for each alternative is indicated before stimulus onset. Processing time is controlled by a “go” cue occurring at different times post stimulus onset, requiring a response within msec. Reward bias does start high when processing time is short and decreases as sensitivity increases, leveling off at a non-zero value. However, the degree of bias is sub-optimal for shorter processing times. We present a mechanistic account of participants' performance within the framework of the leaky competing accumulator model [1], in which accumulators for each alternative accumulate noisy information subject to leakage and mutual inhibition. The leveling off of accuracy is attributed to mutual inhibition between the accumulators, allowing the accumulator that gathers the most evidence early in a trial to suppress the alternative. Three ways reward might affect decision making in this framework are considered. One of the three, in which reward affects the starting point of the evidence accumulation process, is consistent with the qualitative pattern of the observed reward bias effect, while the other two are not. Incorporating this assumption into the leaky competing accumulator model, we are able to provide close quantitative fits to individual participant data

Validity of Thermal Ramping Assays Used to Assess Thermal Tolerance in Arthropods

Proper assessment of environmental resistance of animals is critical for the ability of researchers to understand how variation in environmental conditions influence population and species abundance. This is also the case for studies of upper thermal limits in insects, where researchers studying animals under laboratory conditions must select appropriate methodology on which conclusions can be drawn. Ideally these methods should precisely estimate the trait of interest and also be biological meaningful. In an attempt to develop such tests it has been proposed that thermal ramping assays are useful assays for small insects because they incorporate an ecologically relevant gradual temperature change. However, recent model-based papers have suggested that estimates of thermal resistance may be strongly confounded by simultaneous starvation and dehydration stress. In the present study we empirically test these model predictions using two sets of independent experiments. We clearly demonstrate that results from ramping assays of small insects (Drosophila melanogaster) are not compromised by starvation- or dehydration-stress. Firstly we show that the mild disturbance of water and energy balance of D. melanogaster experienced during the ramping tests does not confound heat tolerance estimates. Secondly we show that flies pre-exposed to starvation and dehydration have “normal” heat tolerance and that resistance to heat stress is independent of the energetic and water status of the flies. On the basis of our results we discuss the assumptions used in recent model papers and present arguments as to why the ramping assay is both a valid and ecologically relevant way to measure thermal resistance in insects

fMRI Evidence for a Dual Process Account of the Speed-Accuracy Tradeoff in Decision-Making

Background: The speed and accuracy of decision-making have a well-known trading relationship: hasty decisions are more prone to errors while careful, accurate judgments take more time. Despite the pervasiveness of this speed-accuracy tradeoff (SAT) in decision-making, its neural basis is still unknown. Methodology/Principal Findings: Using functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) we show that emphasizing the speed of a perceptual decision at the expense of its accuracy lowers the amount of evidence-related activity in lateral prefrontal cortex. Moreover, this speed-accuracy difference in lateral prefrontal cortex activity correlates with the speedaccuracy difference in the decision criterion metric of signal detection theory. We also show that the same instructions increase baseline activity in a dorso-medial cortical area involved in the internal generation of actions. Conclusions/Significance: These findings suggest that the SAT is neurally implemented by modulating not only the amount of externally-derived sensory evidence used to make a decision, but also the internal urge to make a response. We propose that these processes combine to control the temporal dynamics of the speed-accuracy trade-off in decisionmaking

Adverse childhood experiences are associated with the risk of lung cancer: a prospective cohort study

Background. Strong relationships between exposure to childhood traumatic stressors and smoking behaviours inspire the question whether these adverse childhood experiences (ACEs) are associated with an increased risk of lung cancer during adulthood. Methods. Baseline survey data on health behaviours, health status and exposure to adverse childhood experiences (ACEs) were collected from 17,337 adults during 1995-1997. ACEs included abuse (emotional, physical, sexual), witnessing domestic violence, parental separation or divorce, or growing up in a household where members with mentally ill, substance abusers, or sent to prison. We used the ACE score (an integer count of the 8 categories of ACEs) as a measure of cumulative exposure to traumatic stress during childhood. Two methods of case ascertainment were used to identify incident lung cancer through 2005 follow-up: 1) hospital discharge records and 2) mortality records obtained from the National Death Index. Results. The ACE score showed a graded relationship to smoking behaviors. We identified 64 cases of lung cancer through hospital discharge records (age-standardized risk = 201 × 100,000-1 population) and 111 cases of lung cancer through mortality records (age-standardized mortality rate = 31.1 × 100,000 -1 person-years). The ACE score also showed a graded relationship to the incidence of lung cancer for cases identified through hospital discharge (P = 0.0004), mortality (P = 0.025), and both methods combined (P = 0.001). Compared to persons without ACEs, the risk of lung cancer for those with 6 ACEs was increased approximately 3-fold (hospital records: RR = 3.18, 95%CI = 0.71-14.15; mortality records: RR = 3.55, 95%CI = 1.25-10.09; hospital or mortality records: RR = 2.70, 95%CI = 0.94-7.72). After a priori consideration of a causal pathway (i.e., ACEs smoking lung cancer), risk ratios were attenuated toward the null, although not completely. For lung cancer identified through hospital or mortality records, persons with 6 ACEs were roughly 13 years younger on average at presentation than those without ACEs. Conclusions. Adverse childhood experiences may be associated with an increased risk of lung cancer, particularly premature death from lung cancer. The increase in risk may only be partly explained by smoking suggesting other possible mechanisms by which ACEs may contribute to the occurrence of lung cancer