Combination schemes for turning point prediction

We propose new forecast combination schemes for predicting turning points of business cycles. The combination schemes deal with the forecasting performance of a given set of models and possibly providing better turning point predictions. We consider turning point predictions generated by autoregressive (AR) and Markov-Switching AR models, which are commonly used for business cycle analysis. In order to account for parameter uncertainty we consider a Bayesian approach to both estimation and prediction and compare, in terms of statistical accuracy, the individual models and the combined turning point predictions for the United States and Euro area business cycles

Flexible Working in the UK and its Impact on Couples' Time Coordination

The ability to combine work with quality time together as a family is at the heart of the concept of work-life balance. Using previously unexploited data on couples work schedules we investigate the effect of flexible working on couples coordination of their daily work schedules in the UK. We consider three distinct dimensions of flexible working: flexibility of daily start and finish times (flexitime), flexibility of work times over the year (annualized hours), and generalized control of working hours. We show that having flexitime at work increases a couples amount of coordination of their daily work schedules by a half to one hour, which is double the margin of adjustment enjoyed by couples with no flexitime. The impact is driven by couples with children. In contrast to flexitime, the other two forms of flexible working do not seem to increase synchronous time. Our results suggest that having flexitime plays an important role in relaxing the work scheduling constraints faced by families with young children, and that effective flexible working time arrangements are those that increase the workers and not the employers flexibility

Symmetry of functions and exchangeability of random variables

Copula, Exchangeability, Symmetry, Sobolev space, 60B10, 60E05, 62H05,

Nonparametric estimation of a dependent competing risks model for unemployment durations

Exit rate, Hazard, Unobserved heterogeneity, Duration dependence, Nonparticipation, J64, C41,

Score tests for independence in parametric competing risks models

Competing risks, Copulas, Hazard rate, Kendall’s tau, Martingales, Weibull regression, 62N03, 62N01,