A Universal Model of Global Civil Unrest

Civil unrest is a powerful form of collective human dynamics, which has led to major transitions of societies in modern history. The study of collective human dynamics, including collective aggression, has been the focus of much discussion in the context of modeling and identification of universal patterns of behavior. In contrast, the possibility that civil unrest activities, across countries and over long time periods, are governed by universal mechanisms has not been explored. Here, we analyze records of civil unrest of 170 countries during the period 1919-2008. We demonstrate that the distributions of the number of unrest events per year are robustly reproduced by a nonlinear, spatially extended dynamical model, which reflects the spread of civil disorder between geographic regions connected through social and communication networks. The results also expose the similarity between global social instability and the dynamics of natural hazards and epidemics.Comment: 8 pages, 3 figure

Consolidated health economic evaluation reporting standards (CHEERS) statement

<p>Economic evaluations of health interventions pose a particular challenge for reporting. There is also a need to consolidate and update existing guidelines and promote their use in a user friendly manner. The Consolidated Health Economic Evaluation Reporting Standards (CHEERS) statement is an attempt to consolidate and update previous health economic evaluation guidelines efforts into one current, useful reporting guidance. The primary audiences for the CHEERS statement are researchers reporting economic evaluations and the editors and peer reviewers assessing them for publication.</p> <p>The need for new reporting guidance was identified by a survey of medical editors. A list of possible items based on a systematic review was created. A two round, modified Delphi panel consisting of representatives from academia, clinical practice, industry, government, and the editorial community was conducted. Out of 44 candidate items, 24 items and accompanying recommendations were developed. The recommendations are contained in a user friendly, 24 item checklist. A copy of the statement, accompanying checklist, and this report can be found on the ISPOR Health Economic Evaluations Publication Guidelines Task Force website (www.ispor.org/TaskForces/EconomicPubGuidelines.asp).</p> <p>We hope CHEERS will lead to better reporting, and ultimately, better health decisions. To facilitate dissemination and uptake, the CHEERS statement is being co-published across 10 health economics and medical journals. We encourage other journals and groups, to endorse CHEERS. The author team plans to review the checklist for an update in five years.</p&gt

Designing an automated clinical decision support system to match clinical practice guidelines for opioid therapy for chronic pain

Abstract Background Opioid prescribing for chronic pain is common and controversial, but recommended clinical practices are followed inconsistently in many clinical settings. Strategies for increasing adherence to clinical practice guideline recommendations are needed to increase effectiveness and reduce negative consequences of opioid prescribing in chronic pain patients. Methods Here we describe the process and outcomes of a project to operationalize the 2003 VA/DOD Clinical Practice Guideline for Opioid Therapy for Chronic Non-Cancer Pain into a computerized decision support system (DSS) to encourage good opioid prescribing practices during primary care visits. We based the DSS on the existing ATHENA-DSS. We used an iterative process of design, testing, and revision of the DSS by a diverse team including guideline authors, medical informatics experts, clinical content experts, and end-users to convert the written clinical practice guideline into a computable algorithm to generate patient-specific recommendations for care based upon existing information in the electronic medical record (EMR), and a set of clinical tools. Results The iterative revision process identified numerous and varied problems with the initially designed system despite diverse expert participation in the design process. The process of operationalizing the guideline identified areas in which the guideline was vague, left decisions to clinical judgment, or required clarification of detail to insure safe clinical implementation. The revisions led to workable solutions to problems, defined the limits of the DSS and its utility in clinical practice, improved integration into clinical workflow, and improved the clarity and accuracy of system recommendations and tools. Conclusions Use of this iterative process led to development of a multifunctional DSS that met the approval of the clinical practice guideline authors, content experts, and clinicians involved in testing. The process and experiences described provide a model for development of other DSSs that translate written guidelines into actionable, real-time clinical recommendations.http://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/78267/1/1748-5908-5-26.xmlhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/78267/2/1748-5908-5-26.pdfhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/78267/3/1748-5908-5-26-S3.TIFFhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/78267/4/1748-5908-5-26-S2.TIFFhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/78267/5/1748-5908-5-26-S1.TIFFPeer Reviewe

Stimulus-dependent maximum entropy models of neural population codes

Neural populations encode information about their stimulus in a collective fashion, by joint activity patterns of spiking and silence. A full account of this mapping from stimulus to neural activity is given by the conditional probability distribution over neural codewords given the sensory input. To be able to infer a model for this distribution from large-scale neural recordings, we introduce a stimulus-dependent maximum entropy (SDME) model---a minimal extension of the canonical linear-nonlinear model of a single neuron, to a pairwise-coupled neural population. The model is able to capture the single-cell response properties as well as the correlations in neural spiking due to shared stimulus and due to effective neuron-to-neuron connections. Here we show that in a population of 100 retinal ganglion cells in the salamander retina responding to temporal white-noise stimuli, dependencies between cells play an important encoding role. As a result, the SDME model gives a more accurate account of single cell responses and in particular outperforms uncoupled models in reproducing the distributions of codewords emitted in response to a stimulus. We show how the SDME model, in conjunction with static maximum entropy models of population vocabulary, can be used to estimate information-theoretic quantities like surprise and information transmission in a neural population.Comment: 11 pages, 7 figure

How Does Blood-Retinal Barrier Breakdown Relate to Death and Disability in Pediatric Cerebral Malaria?

Background In cerebral malaria, the retina can be used to understand disease pathogenesis. The mechanisms linking sequestration, brain swelling and death remain poorly understood. We hypothesized that retinal vascular leakage would be associated with brain swelling. Methods We used retinal angiography to study blood-retinal barrier integrity. We analyzed retinal leakage, histopathology, brain MRI, and associations with death and neurological disability in prospective cohorts of Malawian children with cerebral malaria. Results Three types of retinal leakage were seen: Large focal leak (LFL), punctate leak (PL) and vessel leak. LFL and PL were associated with death (OR 13.20, 95%CI 5.21-33.78 and 8.58, 2.56-29.08 respectively), and brain swelling (p<0.05). Vessel leak and macular non-perfusion were associated with neurological disability (3.71, 1.26-11.02 and 9.06, 1.79-45.90). LFL was observed as an evolving retinal hemorrhage. A core of fibrinogen and monocytes was found in 39 (93%) white-centered hemorrhages. Conclusions Blood-retina barrier breakdown occurs in three patterns in cerebral malaria. Associations between LFL, brain swelling, and death suggest that the rapid accumulation of cerebral hemorrhages, with accompanying fluid egress, may cause fatal brain swelling. Vessel leak from barrier dysfunction, and non-perfusion were not associated with severe brain swelling, but with neurological deficits, suggesting hypoxic injury in survivors

Identification and functional characterisation of CRK12:CYC9, a novel cyclin-dependent kinase (CDK)-cyclin complex in Trypanosoma brucei

The protozoan parasite, Trypanosoma brucei, is spread by the tsetse fly and causes trypanosomiasis in humans and animals. Both the life cycle and cell cycle of the parasite are complex. Trypanosomes have eleven cdc2-related kinases (CRKs) and ten cyclins, an unusually large number for a single celled organism. To date, relatively little is known about the function of many of the CRKs and cyclins, and only CRK3 has previously been shown to be cyclin-dependent in vivo. Here we report the identification of a previously uncharacterised CRK:cyclin complex between CRK12 and the putative transcriptional cyclin, CYC9. CRK12:CYC9 interact to form an active protein kinase complex in procyclic and bloodstream T. brucei. Both CRK12 and CYC9 are essential for the proliferation of bloodstream trypanosomes in vitro, and we show that CRK12 is also essential for survival of T. brucei in a mouse model, providing genetic validation of CRK12:CYC9 as a novel drug target for trypanosomiasis. Further, functional characterisation of CRK12 and CYC9 using RNA interference reveals roles for these proteins in endocytosis and cytokinesis, respectively

Cytokinesis in bloodstream stage Trypanosoma brucei requires a family of katanins and spastin

Microtubule severing enzymes regulate microtubule dynamics in a wide range of organisms and are implicated in important cell cycle processes such as mitotic spindle assembly and disassembly, chromosome movement and cytokinesis. Here we explore the function of several microtubule severing enzyme homologues, the katanins (KAT80, KAT60a, KAT60b and KAT60c), spastin (SPA) and fidgetin (FID) in the bloodstream stage of the African trypanosome parasite, Trypanosoma brucei. The trypanosome cytoskeleton is microtubule based and remains assembled throughout the cell cycle, necessitating its remodelling during cytokinesis. Using RNA interference to deplete individual proteins, we show that the trypanosome katanin and spastin homologues are non-redundant and essential for bloodstream form proliferation. Further, cell cycle analysis revealed that these proteins play essential but discrete roles in cytokinesis. The KAT60 proteins each appear to be important during the early stages of cytokinesis, while downregulation of KAT80 specifically inhibited furrow ingression and SPA depletion prevented completion of abscission. In contrast, RNA interference of FID did not result in any discernible effects. We propose that the stable microtubule cytoskeleton of T. brucei necessitates the coordinated action of a family of katanins and spastin to bring about the cytoskeletal remodelling necessary to complete cell divisio

National Survey of Patients’ Bill of Rights Statutes

BACKGROUND Despite vigorous national debate between 1999–2001 the federal patients' bill of rights (PBOR) was not enacted. However, states have enacted legislation and the Joint Commission defined an accreditation standard to present patients with their rights. Because such initiatives can be undermined by overly complex language, we surveyed the readability of hospital PBOR documents as well as texts mandated by state law. METHODS State Web sites and codes were searched to identify PBOR statutes for general patient populations. The rights addressed were compared with the 12 themes presented in the American Hospital Association's (AHA) PBOR text of 2002. In addition, we obtained PBOR texts from a sample of hospitals in each state. Readability was evaluated using Prose, a software program which reports an average of eight readability formulas RESULTS Of 23 states with a PBOR statute for the general public, all establish a grievance policy, four protect a private right of action, and one stipulates fines for violations. These laws address an average of 7.4 of the 12 AHA themes. Nine states' statutes specify PBOR text for distribution to patients. These documents have an average readability of 15th grade (range, 11.6, New York, to 17.0, Minnesota). PBOR documents from 240 US hospitals have an average readability of 14th grade (range, 8.2 to 17.0) CONCLUSIONS While the average U.S. adult reads at an 8th grade reading level, an advanced college reading level is routinely required to read PBOR documents. Patients are not likely to learn about their rights from documents they cannot read.Pfizer Clear Health Communication Initiativ

Wristband accelerometers to motivate arm exercise after stroke (WAVES): study protocol for a pilot randomized controlled trial

BACKGROUND: Loss of upper limb function affects up to 85 % of acute stroke patients. Recovery of upper limb function requires regular intensive practise of specific upper limb tasks. To enhance intensity of practice interventions are being developed to encourage patients to undertake self-directed exercise practice. Most interventions do not translate well into everyday activities and stroke patients continue to find it difficult remembering integration of upper limb movements into daily activities. A wrist-worn device has been developed that monitors and provides ‘live’ upper limb activity feedback to remind patients to use their stroke arm in daily activities (The CueS wristband). The aim of this trial is to assess the feasibility of a multi-centre, observer blind, pilot randomised controlled trial of the CueS wristband in clinical stroke services. METHODS/DESIGN: This pilot randomised controlled feasibility trial aims to recruit 60 participants over 15 months from North East England. Participants will be within 3 months of stroke which has caused new reduced upper limb function and will still be receiving therapy. Each participant will be randomised to an intervention or control group. Intervention participants will wear a CueS wristband (between 8 am and 8 pm) providing “live” feedback towards pre-set movement goals through a simple visual display and vibration prompts whilst undertaking a 4-week upper limb therapy programme (reviewed twice weekly by an occupational/physiotherapist). Control participants will also complete the 4-week upper limb therapy programme but will wear a ‘sham’ CueS wristband that monitors upper limb activity but provides no feedback. Outcomes will determine study feasibility in terms of recruitment, retention, adverse events, adherence and collection of descriptive clinical and accelerometer motor performance data at baseline, 4 weeks and 8 weeks. DISCUSSION: The WAVES study will address an important gap in the evidence base by reporting the feasibility of undertaking an evaluation of emerging and affordable technology to encourage impaired upper limb activity after stroke. The study will establish whether the study protocol can be supported by clinical stroke services, thereby informing the design of a future multi-centre randomised controlled trial of clinical and cost-effectiveness. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ISRCTN:82306027. Registered 12 July 2016. ELECTRONIC SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL: The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s13063-016-1628-2) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users

An Evolutionary Framework for Association Testing in Resequencing Studies

Sequencing technologies are becoming cheap enough to apply to large numbers of study participants and promise to provide new insights into human phenotypes by bringing to light rare and previously unknown genetic variants. We develop a new framework for the analysis of sequence data that incorporates all of the major features of previously proposed approaches, including those focused on allele counts and allele burden, but is both more general and more powerful. We harness population genetic theory to provide prior information on effect sizes and to create a pooling strategy for information from rare variants. Our method, EMMPAT (Evolutionary Mixed Model for Pooled Association Testing), generates a single test per gene (substantially reducing multiple testing concerns), facilitates graphical summaries, and improves the interpretation of results by allowing calculation of attributable variance. Simulations show that, relative to previously used approaches, our method increases the power to detect genes that affect phenotype when natural selection has kept alleles with large effect sizes rare. We demonstrate our approach on a population-based re-sequencing study of association between serum triglycerides and variation in ANGPTL4