Spatially clustered count data provide more efficient search strategies in invasion biology and disease control.

Geographic profiling, a mathematical model originally developed in criminology, is increasingly being used in ecology and epidemiology. Geographic profiling boasts a wide range of applications, such as finding source populations of invasive species or breeding sites of vectors of infectious disease. The model provides a cost-effective approach for prioritising search strategies for source locations and does so via simple data in the form of the positions of each observation, such as individual sightings of invasive species or cases of a disease. In doing so, however, classic geographic profiling approaches fail to make the distinction between those areas containing observed absences and those areas where no data were recorded. Absence data are generated via spatial sampling protocols but are often discarded during the inference process. Here we construct a geographic profiling model that resolves these issues by making inferences via count data - analysing a set of discrete sentinel locations at which the number of encounters has been recorded. Crucially, in our model this number can be zero. We verify the ability of this new model to estimate source locations and other parameters of practical interest via a Bayesian power analysis. We also measure model performance via real-world data in which the model infers breeding locations of mosquitoes in bromeliads in Miami-Dade County, Florida. In both cases, our novel model produces more efficient search strategies by shifting focus from those areas containing observed absences to those with no data, an improvement over existing models that treat these areas equally. Our model makes important improvements upon classic geographic profiling methods, which will significantly enhance real-world efforts to develop conservation management plans and targeted interventions

Estimation of heterogeneity in malaria transmission by stochastic modelling of apparent deviations from mass action kinetics

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Quantifying heterogeneity in malaria transmission is a prerequisite for accurate predictive mathematical models, but the variance in field measurements of exposure overestimates true micro-heterogeneity because it is inflated to an uncertain extent by sampling variation. Descriptions of field data also suggest that the rate of <it>Plasmodium falciparum </it>infection is not proportional to the intensity of challenge by infectious vectors. This appears to violate the principle of mass action that is implied by malaria biology. Micro-heterogeneity may be the reason for this anomaly. It is proposed that the level of micro-heterogeneity can be estimated from statistical models that estimate the amount of variation in transmission most compatible with a mass-action model for the relationship of infection to exposure.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>The relationship between the entomological inoculation rate (EIR) for falciparum malaria and infection risk was reanalysed using published data for cohorts of children in Saradidi (western Kenya). Infection risk was treated as binomially distributed, and measurement-error (Poisson and negative binomial) models were considered for the EIR. Models were fitted using Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms and model fit compared for models that assume either mass-action kinetics, facilitation, competition or saturation of the infection process with increasing EIR.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The proportion of inocula that resulted in infection in Saradidi was inversely related to the measured intensity of challenge. Models of facilitation showed, therefore, a poor fit to the data. When sampling error in the EIR was neglected, either competition or saturation needed to be incorporated in the model in order to give a good fit. Negative binomial models for the error in exposure could achieve a comparable fit while incorporating the more parsimonious and biologically plausible mass action assumption. Models that assume negative binomial micro-heterogeneity predict lower incidence of infection at a given average exposure than do those assuming exposure to be uniform. The negative binomial model moreover provides an estimate of the variance of the within-cohort distribution of the EIR and hence of within cohort heterogeneity in exposure.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Apparent deviations from mass action kinetics in parasite transmission can arise from spatial and temporal heterogeneity in the inoculation rate, and from imprecision in its measurement. For parasites like <it>P. falciparum</it>, where there is no plausible biological rationale for deviations from mass action, this provides a strategy for estimating true levels of heterogeneity, since if mass-action is assumed, the within-population variance in exposure becomes identifiable in cohort studies relating infection to transmission intensity. Statistical analyses relating infection to exposure thus provide a valid general approach for estimating heterogeneity in transmission but only when they incorporate mass action kinetics and shrinkage estimates of exposure. Such analyses make it possible to include realistic levels of heterogeneity in dynamic models that predict the impact of control measures on transmission intensity.</p

Behavioural determinants of gene flow in malaria vector populations: Anopheles gambiae males select large females as mates

BACKGROUND: Plasmodium-refractory mosquitoes are being rapidly developed for malaria control but will only succeed if they can successfully compete for mates when released into the wild. Pre-copulatory behavioural traits maintain genetic population structure in wild mosquito populations and mating barriers have foiled previous attempts to control malaria vectors through sterile male release. METHODS: Varying numbers of virgin male and female Anopheles gambiae Giles, from two strains of different innate sizes, were allowed to mate under standardized conditions in laboratory cages, following which, the insemination status, oviposition success and egg batch size of each female was assessed. The influence of male and female numbers, strain combination and female size were determined using logistic regression, correlation analysis and a simple mechanistic model of male competition for females. RESULTS: Male An. gambiae select females on the basis of size because of much greater fecundity among large females. Even under conditions where large numbers of males must compete for a smaller number of females, the largest females are more likely to become inseminated, to successfully oviposit and to produce large egg batches. CONCLUSIONS: Sexual selection, on the basis of size, could either promote or limit the spread of malaria-refractory genes into wild populations and needs to be considered in the continued development and eventual release of transgenic vectors. Fundamental studies of behavioural ecology in malaria vectors such as An. gambiae can have important implications for malaria control and should be prioritised for more extensive investigation in the future

Mosquito Abundance, Bed net Coverage and Other Factors Associated with Variations in Sporozoite Infectivity Rates in Four Villages of Rural Tanzania.

Entomological surveys are of great importance in decision-making processes regarding malaria control strategies because they help to identify associations between vector abundance both species-specific ecology and disease intervention factors associated with malaria transmission. Sporozoite infectivity rates, mosquito host blood meal source, bed net coverage and mosquito abundance were assessed in this study. A longitudinal survey was conducted in four villages in two regions of Tanzania. Malaria vectors were sampled using the CDC light trap and pyrethrum spray catch methods. In each village, ten paired houses were selected for mosquitoes sampling. Sampling was done in fortnight case and study was undertaken for six months in both Kilimanjaro (Northern Tanzania) and Dodoma (Central Tanzania) regions. A total of 6,883 mosquitoes were collected including: 5,628 (81.8%) Anopheles arabiensis, 1,100 (15.9%) Culex quinquefasciatus, 89 (1.4%) Anopheles funestus, and 66 (0.9%) Anopheles gambiae s.s. Of the total mosquitoes collected 3,861 were captured by CDC light trap and 3,022 by the pyrethrum spray catch method. The overall light trap: spray catch ratio was 1.3:1. Mosquito densities per room were 96.5 and 75.5 for light trap and pyrethrum spray catch respectively. Mosquito infectivity rates between villages that have high proportion of bed net owners and those without bed nets was significant (P < 0.001) and there was a significant difference in sporozoite rates between households with and without bed nets in these four villages (P < 0.001). Malaria remains a major problem in the study areas characterized as low transmission sites. Further studies are required to establish the annual entomological inoculation rates and to observe the annual parasitaemia dynamics in these communities. Outdoor mosquitoes collection should also be considered

Using the entomological inoculation rate to assess the impact of vector control on malaria parasite transmission and elimination

Prior studies have shown that annual entomological inoculation rates (EIRs) must be reduced to less than one to substantially reduce the prevalence of malaria infection. In this study, EIR values were used to quantify the impact of insecticide-treated bed nets (ITNs), indoor residual spraying (IRS), and source reduction (SR) on malaria transmission. The analysis of EIR was extended through determining whether available vector control tools can ultimately eradicate malaria. The analysis is based primarily on a review of all controlled studies that used ITN, IRS, and/or SR and reported their effects on the EIR. To compare EIRs between studies, the percent difference in EIR between the intervention and control groups was calculated. Eight vector control intervention studies that measured EIR were found: four ITN studies, one IRS study, one SR study, and two studies with separate ITN and IRS intervention groups. In both the Tanzania study and the Solomon Islands study, one community received ITNs and one received IRS. In the second year of the Tanzania study, EIR was 90% lower in the ITN community and 93% lower in the IRS community, relative to the community without intervention; the ITN and IRS effects were not significantly different. In contrast, in the Solomon Islands study, EIR was 94% lower in the ITN community and 56% lower in the IRS community. The one SR study, in Dar es Salaam, reported a lower EIR reduction (47%) than the ITN and IRS studies. All of these vector control interventions reduced EIR, but none reduced it to zero. These studies indicate that current vector control methods alone cannot ultimately eradicate malaria because no intervention sustained an annual EIR less than one. While researchers develop new tools, integrated vector management may make the greatest impact on malaria transmission. There are many gaps in the entomological malaria literature and recommendations for future research are provided

Linking like with like: optimising connectivity between environmentally-similar habitats

Habitat fragmentation is one of the greatest threats to biodiversity. To minimise the effect of fragmentation on biodiversity, connectivity between otherwise isolated habitats should be promoted. However, the identification of linkages favouring connectivity is not trivial. Firstly, they compete with other land uses, so they need to be cost-efficient. Secondly, linkages for one species might be barriers for others, so they should effectively account for distinct mobility requirements. Thirdly, detailed information on the auto-ecology of most of the species is lacking, so linkages need being defined based on surrogates. In order to address these challenges we develop a framework that (a) identifies environmentally-similar habitats; (b) identifies environmental barriers (i.e., regions with a very distinct environment from the areas to be linked), and; (c) determines cost-efficient linkages between environmentally-similar habitats, free from environmental barriers. The assumption is that species with similar ecological requirements occupy the same environments, so environmental similarity provides a rationale for the identification of the areas that need to be linked. A variant of the classical minimum Steiner tree problem in graphs is used to address c). We present a heuristic for this problem that is capable of handling large datasets. To illustrate the framework we identify linkages between environmentally-similar protected areas in the Iberian Peninsula. The Natura 2000 network is used as a positive ‘attractor’ of links while the human footprint is used as ‘repellent’ of links.Wecompare the outcomes of our approach with cost-efficient networks linking protected areas that disregard the effect of environmental barriers. As expected, the latter achieved a smaller area covered with linkages, but with barriers that can significantly reduce the permeability of the landscape for the dispersal of some species

Spatial ecology of jaguars, pumas, and ocelots: a review of the state of knowledge

Knowledge of the spatial ecology of mammalian carnivores is critical for understanding species’ biology and designing effective conservation and management interventions. We reviewed the available information about the spatial ecology of jaguars Panthera onca, pumas Puma concolor, and ocelots Leopardus pardalis, and we examined how sex and extrinsic variables affect their spatial behaviour. Sixty-one articles addressing home range, home range overlap, daily net displacement (straight-line distance between two locations on consecutive days), and/or distance of dispersal of the three species were included. Meta-analysis, ANOVA, ANCOVA, and beta regression tests were run to analyse differences among species and sexes and to elucidate the influence of other variables, such as latitude and ecoregion, on spatial behaviour. Pumas had on average larger home ranges (mean ± SE: 281.87 ± 35.76 km) than jaguars (128.61 ± 49.5 km) and ocelots (12.46 ± 3.39 km). Intersexual range overlap was higher than intrasexual range overlap in jaguars and pumas. Sex affected the home range size of all three species, but only influenced daily net displacement in ocelots. Ecoregion affected the home range size of all three species but did not significantly affect either the daily net displacement or the dispersal distance of pumas. Latitude affected the home range size of jaguars and pumas. It did not affect daily net displacement or dispersal distance in jaguars and pumas, but did affect daily net displacement in ocelots. Although there was a lack of studies in most countries for the three species, information was particularly lacking in the Neotropics for jaguars and pumas and in North America for ocelots. Researchers usually presented low sample sizes and used different methods to examine the ecological issues considered here. Homogenisation of methods is needed to clarify the ecology of these species and to allow a better understanding of the threats to their populations.Peer Reviewe

Perspectives of people in Mali toward genetically-modified mosquitoes for malaria control

Background: Genetically-modified (GM) mosquitoes have been proposed as part of an integrated vector control strategy for malaria control. Public acceptance is essential prior to field trials, particularly since mosquitoes are a vector of human disease and genetically modified organisms (GMOs) face strong scepticism in developed and developing nations. Despite this, in sub-Saharan Africa, where the GM mosquito effort is primarily directed, very little data is available on perspectives to GMOs. Here, results are presented of a qualitative survey of public attitudes to GM mosquitoes for malaria control in rural and urban areas of Mali, West Africa between the months of October 2008 and June 2009. Methods: The sample consisted of 80 individuals - 30 living in rural communities, 30 living in urban suburbs of Bamako, and 20 Western-trained and traditional health professionals working in Bamako and Bandiagara. Questions were asked about the cause of malaria, heredity and selective breeding. This led to questions about genetic alterations, and acceptable conditions for a release of pest-resistant GM corn and malaria-refractory GM mosquitoes. Finally, participants were asked about the decision-making process in their community. Interviews were transcribed and responses were categorized according to general themes. Results: Most participants cited mosquitoes as one of several causes of malaria. The concept of the gene was not widely understood; however selective breeding was understood, allowing limited communication of the concept of genetic modification. Participants were open to a release of pest-resistant GM corn, often wanting to conduct a trial themselves. The concept of a trial was reapplied to GM mosquitoes, although less frequently. Participants wanted to see evidence that GM mosquitoes can reduce malaria prevalence without negative consequences for human health and the environment. For several participants, a mosquito control programme was preferred; however a transgenic release that satisfied certain requirements was usually acceptable. Conclusions: Although there were some dissenters, the majority of participants were pragmatic towards a release of GM mosquitoes. An array of social and cultural issues associated with malaria, mosquitoes and genetic engineering became apparent. If these can be successfully addressed, then social acceptance among the populations surveyed seems promising

Successful field trial of attractive toxic sugar bait (ATSB) plant-spraying methods against malaria vectors in the Anopheles gambiae complex in Mali, West Africa

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Based on highly successful demonstrations in Israel that attractive toxic sugar bait (ATSB) methods can decimate local populations of mosquitoes, this study determined the effectiveness of ATSB methods for malaria vector control in the semi-arid Bandiagara District of Mali, West Africa.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Control and treatment sites, selected along a road that connects villages, contained man-made ponds that were the primary larval habitats of <it>Anopheles gambiae </it>and <it>Anopheles arabiensis</it>. Guava and honey melons, two local fruits shown to be attractive to <it>An. gambiae </it>s.l., were used to prepare solutions of Attractive Sugar Bait (ASB) and ATSB that additionally contained boric acid as an oral insecticide. Both included a color dye marker to facilitate determination of mosquitoes feeding on the solutions. The trial was conducted over a 38-day period, using CDC light traps to monitor mosquito populations. On day 8, ASB solution in the control site and ATSB solution in the treatment site were sprayed using a hand-pump on patches of vegetation. Samples of female mosquitoes were age-graded to determine the impact of ATSB treatment on vector longevity.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Immediately after spraying ATSB in the treatment site, the relative abundance of female and male <it>An. gambiae </it>s.l. declined about 90% from pre-treatment levels and remained low. In the treatment site, most females remaining after ATSB treatment had not completed a single gonotrophic cycle, and only 6% had completed three or more gonotrophic cycles compared with 37% pre-treatment. In the control site sprayed with ASB (without toxin), the proportion of females completing three or more gonotrophic cycles increased from 28.5% pre-treatment to 47.5% post-treatment. In the control site, detection of dye marker in over half of the females and males provided direct evidence that the mosquitoes were feeding on the sprayed solutions.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>This study in Mali shows that even a single application of ATSB can substantially decrease malaria vector population densities and longevity. It is likely that ATSB methods can be used as a new powerful tool for the control of malaria vectors, particularly since this approach is highly effective for mosquito control, technologically simple, inexpensive, and environmentally safe.</p

Epidemiology of Malaria in an Area Prepared for Clinical Trials in Korogwe, North-eastern Tanzania.

Site preparation is a pre-requesite in conducting malaria vaccines trials. This study was conducted in 12 villages to determine malariometric indices and associated risk factors, during long and short rainy seasons, in an area with varying malaria transmission intensities in Korogwe district, Tanzania. Four villages had passive case detection (PCD) of fever system using village health workers. Four malariometric cross-sectional surveys were conducted between November 2005 and May 2007 among individuals aged 0-19 years, living in lowland urban, lowland rural and highland strata. A total of 10,766 blood samples were collected for malaria parasite diagnosis and anaemia estimation. Blood smears were stained with Giemsa while haemoglobin level was measured by HaemoCue. Socio-economic data were collected between Jan-Apr 2006. Adjusting for the effect of age, the risk of Plasmodium falciparum parasitaemia was significantly lower in both lowland urban, (OR = 0.26; 95%CI: 0.23-0.29, p < 0.001) and highlands, (OR = 0.21; 95%CI: 0.17-0.25, p < 0.001) compared to lowland rural. Individuals aged 6-9 years in the lowland rural and 4-19 years in both lowland urban and highlands had the highest parasite prevalence, whilst children below five years in all strata had the highest parasite density. Prevalence of splenomegaly and gametocyte were also lower in both lowland urban and highlands than in lowland rural. Anaemia (Hb <11 g/dl) prevalence was lowest in the lowland urban. Availability of PCD and higher socio-economic status (SES) were associated with reduced malaria and anaemia prevalence. Higher SES and use of bed nets in the lowland urban could be the important factors for low malaria infections in this stratum. Results obtained here were used together with those from PCD and DSS in selecting a village for Phase 1b MSP3 vaccine trial, which was conducted in the study area in year 2008