Are We Predicting the Actual or Apparent Distribution of Temperate Marine Fishes?

Planning for resilience is the focus of many marine conservation programs and initiatives. These efforts aim to inform conservation strategies for marine regions to ensure they have inbuilt capacity to retain biological diversity and ecological function in the face of global environmental change – particularly changes in climate and resource exploitation. In the absence of direct biological and ecological information for many marine species, scientists are increasingly using spatially-explicit, predictive-modeling approaches. Through the improved access to multibeam sonar and underwater video technology these models provide spatial predictions of the most suitable regions for an organism at resolutions previously not possible. However, sensible-looking, well-performing models can provide very different predictions of distribution depending on which occurrence dataset is used. To examine this, we construct species distribution models for nine temperate marine sedentary fishes for a 25.7 km2 study region off the coast of southeastern Australia. We use generalized linear model (GLM), generalized additive model (GAM) and maximum entropy (MAXENT) to build models based on co-located occurrence datasets derived from two underwater video methods (i.e. baited and towed video) and fine-scale multibeam sonar based seafloor habitat variables. Overall, this study found that the choice of modeling approach did not considerably influence the prediction of distributions based on the same occurrence dataset. However, greater dissimilarity between model predictions was observed across the nine fish taxa when the two occurrence datasets were compared (relative to models based on the same dataset). Based on these results it is difficult to draw any general trends in regards to which video method provides more reliable occurrence datasets. Nonetheless, we suggest predictions reflecting the species apparent distribution (i.e. a combination of species distribution and the probability of detecting it). Consequently, we also encourage researchers and marine managers to carefully interpret model predictions

Changing Patterns of Microhabitat Utilization by the Threespot Damselfish, Stegastes planifrons, on Caribbean Reefs

Background: The threespot damselfish, Stegastes planifrons (Cuvier), is important in mediating interactions among corals, algae, and herbivores on Caribbean coral reefs. The preferred microhabitat of S. planifrons is thickets of the branching staghorn coral Acropora cervicornis. Within the past few decades, mass mortality of A. cervicornis from white-band disease and other factors has rendered this coral a minor ecological component throughout most of its range. Methodology/Principal Findings: Survey data from Jamaica (heavily fished), Florida and the Bahamas (moderately fished), the Cayman Islands (lightly to moderately fished), and Belize (lightly fished) indicate that distributional patterns of S. planifrons are positively correlated with live coral cover and topographic complexity. Our results suggest that speciesspecific microhabitat preferences and the availability of topographically complex microhabitats are more important than the abundance of predatory fish as proximal controls on S. planifrons distribution and abundance. Conclusions/Significance: The loss of the primary microhabitat of S. planifrons—A. cervicornis—has forced a shift in the distribution and recruitment of these damselfish onto remaining high-structured corals, especially the Montastraea annulari

Comparison of Marine Spatial Planning Methods in Madagascar Demonstrates Value of Alternative Approaches

The Government of Madagascar plans to increase marine protected area coverage by over one million hectares. To assist this process, we compare four methods for marine spatial planning of Madagascar's west coast. Input data for each method was drawn from the same variables: fishing pressure, exposure to climate change, and biodiversity (habitats, species distributions, biological richness, and biodiversity value). The first method compares visual color classifications of primary variables, the second uses binary combinations of these variables to produce a categorical classification of management actions, the third is a target-based optimization using Marxan, and the fourth is conservation ranking with Zonation. We present results from each method, and compare the latter three approaches for spatial coverage, biodiversity representation, fishing cost and persistence probability. All results included large areas in the north, central, and southern parts of western Madagascar. Achieving 30% representation targets with Marxan required twice the fish catch loss than the categorical method. The categorical classification and Zonation do not consider targets for conservation features. However, when we reduced Marxan targets to 16.3%, matching the representation level of the “strict protection” class of the categorical result, the methods show similar catch losses. The management category portfolio has complete coverage, and presents several management recommendations including strict protection. Zonation produces rapid conservation rankings across large, diverse datasets. Marxan is useful for identifying strict protected areas that meet representation targets, and minimize exposure probabilities for conservation features at low economic cost. We show that methods based on Zonation and a simple combination of variables can produce results comparable to Marxan for species representation and catch losses, demonstrating the value of comparing alternative approaches during initial stages of the planning process. Choosing an appropriate approach ultimately depends on scientific and political factors including representation targets, likelihood of adoption, and persistence goals

An epigenome-wide association study meta-analysis of educational attainment

The epigenome is associated with biological factors, such as disease status, and environmental factors, such as smoking, alcohol consumption and body mass index. Although there is a widespread perception that environmental influences on the epigenome are pervasive and profound, there has been little evidence to date in humans with respect to environmental factors that are biologically distal. Here we provide evidence on the associations between epigenetic modifications-in our case, CpG methylation -and educational attainment (EA), a biologically distal environmental factor that is arguably among the most important life-shaping experiences for individuals. Specifically, we report the results of an epigenome-wide association study meta-analysis of EA based on data from 27 cohort studies with a total of 10 767 individuals. We find nine CpG probes significantly associated with EA. However, robustness analyses show that all nine probes have previously been found to be associated with smoking. Only two associations remain when we perform a sensitivity analysis in the subset of never-smokers, and these two probes are known to be strongly associated with maternal smoking during pregnancy, and thus their association with EA could be due to correlation between EA and maternal smoking. Moreover, the effect sizes of the associations with EA are far smaller than the known associations with the biologically proximal environmental factors alcohol consumption, body mass index, smoking and maternal smoking during pregnancy. Follow-up analyses that combine the effects of many probes also point to small methylation associations with EA that are highly correlated with the combined effects of smoking. If our findings regarding EA can be generalized to other biologically distal environmental factors, then they cast doubt on the hypothesis that such factors have large effects on the epigenome

The encrusting sponge Halisarca laxus: population genetics and association with the ascidian Pyura spinifera

Abstract The encrusting sponge Halisarca laxus forms a seemingly obligate association with the stalked solitary ascidian Pyura spinifera. In 1991 we examined spatial variation and short-term temporal variation in this association at three neighbouring sites in southeastern Australia. This sponge dominated the surface of almost all the 500 individual ascidians examined, with mean cover usually exceeding 90%. This pattern was consistent among sites and throughout the year of the study. The domination of a small isolated patch of habitable substratum by a sponge is most unusual, given that they are regarded as relatively poor recruiters. To understand how this association might be maintained, we determined the underlying genotypic diversity of the sponge population using starch-gel electrophoresis. P. spinifera is a clump-forming ascidian and usually occurs in clumps of up to 22 individuals. Electrophoretic surveys, based on six variable allozyme loci, revealed that at a total of five plots within three neighbouring New South Wales populations, single sponge genotypes may cover entire ascidian clumps; although a clump sometimes played host to more than one sponge clone. Allele frequencies (averaged across four loci that appear to conform to Mendelian inheritance) showed little variation among populations (standardised genetic variance, Fs~ = 0.013). Nevertheless, sponge populations were genotypically diverse, with samples from 63 of 172 individual clumps displaying unique "clonal" genotypes. Moreover, multi-locus genotypic diversity within all sites approached the level expected for sexual reproduction with random mating. Taken together, these data imply that H. laxus produces sexually-derived larvae that are at least moderately widely dispersed. Given the relatively small size of the patches that this sponge inhabits, we also conclude that these larvae are good colonists and good spatial competitors on their ascidian hosts.A. R. Davis, D. J. Ayre , M. R. Billingham, C. A. Styan, G. A. Whit