A simple method for defining malaria seasonality

BACKGROUND: There is currently no standard way of defining malaria seasonality, resulting in a wide range of definitions reported in the literature. Malaria cases show seasonal peaks in most endemic settings, and the choice and timing for optimal malaria control may vary by seasonality. A simple approach is presented to describe the seasonality of malaria, to aid localized policymaking and targeting of interventions. METHODS: A series of systematic literature reviews were undertaken to identify studies reporting on monthly data for full calendar years on clinical malaria, hospital admission with malaria and entomological inoculation rates (EIR). Sites were defined as having 'marked seasonality' if 75% or more of all episodes occurred in six or less months of the year. A 'concentrated period of malaria' was defined as the six consecutive months with the highest cumulative proportion of cases. A sensitivity analysis was performed based on a variety of cut-offs. RESULTS: Monthly data for full calendar years on clinical malaria, all hospital admissions with malaria, and entomological inoculation rates were available for 13, 18, and 11 sites respectively. Most sites showed year-round transmission with seasonal peaks for both clinical malaria and hospital admissions with malaria, with a few sites fitting the definition of 'marked seasonality'. For these sites, consistent results were observed when more than one outcome or more than one calendar year was available from the same site. The use of monthly EIR data was found to be of limited value when looking at seasonal variations of malaria transmission, particularly at low and medium intensity levels. CONCLUSION: The proposed definition discriminated well between studies with 'marked seasonality' and those with less seasonality. However, a poor fit was observed in sites with two seasonal peaks. Further work is needed to explore the applicability of this definition on a wide-scale, using routine health information system data where possible, to aid appropriate targeting of interventions

Safety, Immunogenicity and Duration of Protection of the RTS,S/AS02D Malaria Vaccine: One Year Follow-Up of a Randomized Controlled Phase I/IIb Trial

The RTS,S/AS02(D) vaccine has been shown to have a promising safety profile, to be immunogenic and to confer protection against malaria in children and infants.We did a randomized, controlled, phase I/IIb trial of RTS,S/AS02(D) given at 10, 14 and 18 weeks of age staggered with routine immunization vaccines in 214 Mozambican infants. The study was double-blind until the young child completed 6 months of follow-up over which period vaccine efficacy against new Plasmodium falciparum infections was estimated at 65.9% (95% CI 42.6-79.8, p<0.0001). We now report safety, immunogenicity and estimated efficacy against clinical malaria up to 14 months after study start. Vaccine efficacy was assessed using Cox regression models. The frequency of serious adverse events was 32.7% in the RTS,S/AS02(D) and 31.8% in the control group. The geometric mean titers of anti-circumsporozoite antibodies declined from 199.9 to 7.3 EU/mL from one to 12 months post dose three of RTS,S/AS02(D), remaining 15-fold higher than in the control group. Vaccine efficacy against clinical malaria was 33% (95% CI: -4.3-56.9, p = 0.076) over 14 months of follow-up. The hazard rate of disease per 2-fold increase in anti-CS titters was reduced by 84% (95% CI 35.1-88.2, p = 0.003).The RTS,S/AS02(D) malaria vaccine administered to young infants has a good safety profile and remains efficacious over 14 months. A strong association between anti-CS antibodies and risk of clinical malaria has been described for the first time. The results also suggest a decrease of both anti-CS antibodies and vaccine efficacy over time.ClinicalTrials.gov NCT00197028

Insights into Long-Lasting Protection Induced by RTS,S/AS02A Malaria Vaccine: Further Results from a Phase IIb Trial in Mozambican Children

Background: The pre-erythrocytic malaria vaccine RTS,S/AS02A has shown to confer protection against clinical malaria for at least 21 months in a trial in Mozambican children. Efficacy varied between different endpoints, such as parasitaemia or clinical malaria; however the underlying mechanisms that determine efficacy and its duration remain unknown. We performed a new, exploratory analysis to explore differences in the duration of protection among participants to better understand the protection afforded by RTS,S. Methodology/Principal Findings: The study was a Phase IIb double-blind, randomized controlled trial in 2022 children aged 1 to 4 years. The trial was designed with two cohorts to estimate vaccine efficacy against two different endpoints: clinical malaria (cohort 1) and infection (cohort 2). Participants were randomly allocated to receive three doses of RTS,S/AS02A or control vaccines. We did a retrospective, unplanned sub-analysis of cohort 2 data using information collected for safety through the health facility-based passive case detection system. Vaccine efficacy against clinical malaria was estimated over the first six-month surveillance period (double-blind phase) and over the following 12 months (single-blind phase), and analysis was per-protocol. Adjusted vaccine efficacy against first clinical malaria episodes in cohort 2 was of 35.4% (95% CI 4.5-56.3; p = 0.029) over the double-blind phase and of 9.0% (230.6-36.6; p = 0.609) during the single-blind phase. Conclusions/Significance: Contrary to observations in cohort 1, where efficacy against clinical malaria did not wane over time, in cohort 2 the efficacy decreases with time. We hypothesize that this reduced duration of protection is a result of the early diagnosis and treatment of infections in cohort 2 participants, preventing sufficient exposure to asexual-stage antigens. On the other hand, the long-term protection against clinical disease observed in cohort 1 may be a consequence of a prolonged exposure to low-dose blood-stage asexual parasitaemia

Lithium chloride therapy fails to improve motor function in a transgenic mouse model of Machado-Joseph disease

The accumulation of misfolded proteins in neurons, leading to the formation of cytoplasmic and nuclear aggregates, is a common theme in age-related neurodegenerative diseases, possibly due to disturbances of the proteostasis and insufficient activity of cellular protein clearance pathways. Lithium is a well-known autophagy inducer that exerts neuroprotective effects in different conditions and has been proposed as a promising therapeutic agent for several neurodegenerative diseases. We tested the efficacy of chronic lithium 10.4 mg/kg) treatment in a transgenic mouse model of Machado-Joseph disease, an inherited neurodegenerative disease, caused by an expansion of a polyglutamine tract within the protein ataxin-3. A battery of behavioral tests was used to assess disease progression. In spite of activating autophagy, as suggested by the increased levels of Beclin-1, Atg7, and LC3II, and a reduction in the p62 protein levels, lithium administration showed no overall beneficial effects in this model concerning motor performance, showing a positive impact only in the reduction of tremors at 24 weeks of age. Our results do not support lithiumchronic treatment as a promising strategy for the treatment of Machado-Joseph disease (MJD).FCT -Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia(SFRH/BD/51059/2010

Erythropoietin levels are not independently associated with malaria-attributable severe disease in Mozambican children.

BACKGROUND: Severe malaria is difficult to differentiate from other forms of malaria or other infections with similar symptoms. Any parameter associated to malaria-attributable severe disease could help to improve severe malaria diagnosis. METHODOLOGY: This study assessed the relation between erythropoietin (EPO) and malaria-attributable severe disease in an area of Mozambique with moderate malaria transmission. 211 children <5 years, recruited at Manhiça District Hospital or in the surrounding villages, were included in one of the following groups: severe malaria (SM, n = 44), hospital malaria without severity (HM, n = 49), uncomplicated malaria (UM, n = 47), invasive bacterial infection without malaria parasites (IBI, n = 39) and healthy community controls (C, n = 32). Malaria was diagnosed by microscopy and IBI by blood/cerebrospinal fluid culture. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Mean EPO concentration in the control group was 20.95 U/l (SD = 2.96 U/l). Values in this group were lower when compared to each of the clinical groups (p = 0.026 C versus UM, p<0.001 C vs HM, p<0.001 C vs SM and p<0.001 C vs IBI). In the 3 malaria groups, values increased with severity [mean = 40.82 U/l (SD = 4.07 U/l), 125.91 U/l (SD = 4.99U/l) and 320.87 U/l (SD = 5.91U/l) for UM, HM and SM, respectively, p<0.001]. The IBI group [mean = 101.75 U/l (SD = 4.12 U/l)] presented lower values than the SM one (p = 0.002). In spite of the differences, values overlapped between study groups and EPO levels were only associated to hemoglobin. Hemoglobin means of the clinical groups were 93.98 g/dl (SD = 14.77 g/dl) for UM, 75.96 g/dl (SD = 16.48 g/dl) for HM, 64.34 g/dl (SD = 22.99 g/dl) for SM and 75.67 g/dl (SD = 16.58 g/dl) for IBI. CONCLUSIONS: Although EPO levels increase according to malaria severity and are higher in severe malaria than in bacteremia, the utility of EPO to distinguish malaria-attributable severe disease is limited due to the overlap of values between the study groups and the main role of hemoglobin in the expression of EPO

Why Functional Pre-Erythrocytic and Bloodstage Malaria Vaccines Fail: A Meta-Analysis of Fully Protective Immunizations and Novel Immunological Model

Background: Clinically protective malaria vaccines consistently fail to protect adults and children in endemic settings, and at best only partially protect infants. Methodology/Principal Findings: We identify and evaluate 1916 immunization studies between 1965-February 2010, and exclude partially or nonprotective results to find 177 completely protective immunization experiments. Detailed reexamination reveals an unexpectedly mundane basis for selective vaccine failure: live malaria parasites in the skin inhibit vaccine function. We next show published molecular and cellular data support a testable, novel model where parasite-host interactions in the skin induce malaria-specific regulatory T cells, and subvert early antigen-specific immunity to parasite-specific immunotolerance. This ensures infection and tolerance to reinfection. Exposure to Plasmodium-infected mosquito bites therefore systematically triggers immunosuppression of endemic vaccine-elicited responses. The extensive vaccine trial data solidly substantiate this model experimentally. Conclusions/Significance: We conclude skinstage-initiated immunosuppression, unassociated with bloodstage parasites, systematically blocks vaccine function in the field. Our model exposes novel molecular and procedural strategies to significantly and quickly increase protective efficacy in both pipeline and currently ineffective malaria vaccines, and forces fundamental reassessment of central precepts determining vaccine development. This has major implications fo

Global, regional, and national burden of stroke and its risk factors, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background: Regularly updated data on stroke and its pathological types, including data on their incidence, prevalence, mortality, disability, risk factors, and epidemiological trends, are important for evidence-based stroke care planning and resource allocation. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) aims to provide a standardised and comprehensive measurement of these metrics at global, regional, and national levels. Methods: We applied GBD 2019 analytical tools to calculate stroke incidence, prevalence, mortality, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and the population attributable fraction (PAF) of DALYs (with corresponding 95% uncertainty intervals [UIs]) associated with 19 risk factors, for 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2019. These estimates were provided for ischaemic stroke, intracerebral haemorrhage, subarachnoid haemorrhage, and all strokes combined, and stratified by sex, age group, and World Bank country income level. Findings: In 2019, there were 12·2 million (95% UI 11·0–13·6) incident cases of stroke, 101 million (93·2–111) prevalent cases of stroke, 143 million (133–153) DALYs due to stroke, and 6·55 million (6·00–7·02) deaths from stroke. Globally, stroke remained the second-leading cause of death (11·6% [10·8–12·2] of total deaths) and the third-leading cause of death and disability combined (5·7% [5·1–6·2] of total DALYs) in 2019. From 1990 to 2019, the absolute number of incident strokes increased by 70·0% (67·0–73·0), prevalent strokes increased by 85·0% (83·0–88·0), deaths from stroke increased by 43·0% (31·0–55·0), and DALYs due to stroke increased by 32·0% (22·0–42·0). During the same period, age-standardised rates of stroke incidence decreased by 17·0% (15·0–18·0), mortality decreased by 36·0% (31·0–42·0), prevalence decreased by 6·0% (5·0–7·0), and DALYs decreased by 36·0% (31·0–42·0). However, among people younger than 70 years, prevalence rates increased by 22·0% (21·0–24·0) and incidence rates increased by 15·0% (12·0–18·0). In 2019, the age-standardised stroke-related mortality rate was 3·6 (3·5–3·8) times higher in the World Bank low-income group than in the World Bank high-income group, and the age-standardised stroke-related DALY rate was 3·7 (3·5–3·9) times higher in the low-income group than the high-income group. Ischaemic stroke constituted 62·4% of all incident strokes in 2019 (7·63 million [6·57–8·96]), while intracerebral haemorrhage constituted 27·9% (3·41 million [2·97–3·91]) and subarachnoid haemorrhage constituted 9·7% (1·18 million [1·01–1·39]). In 2019, the five leading risk factors for stroke were high systolic blood pressure (contributing to 79·6 million [67·7–90·8] DALYs or 55·5% [48·2–62·0] of total stroke DALYs), high body-mass index (34·9 million [22·3–48·6] DALYs or 24·3% [15·7–33·2]), high fasting plasma glucose (28·9 million [19·8–41·5] DALYs or 20·2% [13·8–29·1]), ambient particulate matter pollution (28·7 million [23·4–33·4] DALYs or 20·1% [16·6–23·0]), and smoking (25·3 million [22·6–28·2] DALYs or 17·6% [16·4–19·0]). Interpretation: The annual number of strokes and deaths due to stroke increased substantially from 1990 to 2019, despite substantial reductions in age-standardised rates, particularly among people older than 70 years. The highest age-standardised stroke-related mortality and DALY rates were in the World Bank low-income group. The fastest-growing risk factor for stroke between 1990 and 2019 was high body-mass index. Without urgent implementation of effective primary prevention strategies, the stroke burden will probably continue to grow across the world, particularly in low-income countries. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation