Operational forecasting of daily summer maximum and minimum temperatures in the Valencia Region

Extreme-temperature events have a great impact on human society. Thus, knowledge of summer temperatures can be very useful both for the general public and for organizations whose workers operate in the open. An accurate forecasting of summer maximum and minimum temperatures could help to predict heatwave conditions and permit the implementation of strategies aimed at minimizing the negative effects that high temperatures have on human health. The objective of this work is to evaluate the skill of the regional atmospheric and modelling system (RAMS) model in determining daily summer maximum and minimum temperatures in the Valencia Region. For this, we have used the real-time configuration of this model currently running at the Centro de Estudios Ambientales de Mediterráneo Foundation. This operational system is run twice a day, and both runs have a 3-day forecast range. To carry out the verification of the model in this work, the information generated by the system has been broken into individual simulation days for a specific daily run of the model. Moreover, we have analysed the summer forecast period from 1 June to 31 August for 2007, 2008, 2009 and 2010. The results indicate good agreement between observed and simulated maximum temperatures, with RMSE in general near 2 °C both for coastal and inland stations. For this parameter, the model shows a negative bias around −1.5 °C in the coast, while the opposite trend is observed inland. In addition, RAMS also shows good results in forecasting minimum temperatures for coastal locations, with bias lower than 1 °C and RMSE below 2 °C. However, the model presents some difficulties for this parameter inland, where bias higher than 3 °C and RMSE of about 4 °C have been found. Besides, there is little difference in both temperatures forecasted within the two daily RAMS cycles and that RAMS is very stable in maintaining the forecast performance at least for three forecast days

The triple combination of tenofovir, emtricitabine and efavirenz shows synergistic anti-HIV-1 activity in vitro: a mechanism of action study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Tenofovir disoproxil fumarate (TDF), emtricitabine (FTC), and efavirenz (EFV) are the three components of the once-daily, single tablet regimen (Atripla) for treatment of HIV-1 infection. Previous cell culture studies have demonstrated that the double combination of tenofovir (TFV), the parent drug of TDF, and FTC were additive to synergistic in their anti-HIV activity, which correlated with increased levels of intracellular phosphorylation of both compounds.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>In this study, we demonstrated the combinations of TFV+FTC, TFV+EFV, FTC+EFV, and TFV+FTC+EFV synergistically inhibit HIV replication in cell culture and synergistically inhibit HIV-1 reverse transcriptase (RT) catalyzed DNA synthesis in biochemical assays. Several different methods were applied to define synergy including median-effect analysis, MacSynergy^®II and quantitative isobologram analysis. We demonstrated that the enhanced formation of dead-end complexes (DEC) by HIV-1 RT and TFV-terminated DNA in the presence of FTC-triphosphate (TP) could contribute to the synergy observed for the combination of TFV+FTC, possibly through reduced terminal NRTI excision. Furthermore, we showed that EFV facilitated efficient formation of stable, DEC-like complexes by TFV- or FTC-monophosphate (MP)-terminated DNA and this can contribute to the synergistic inhibition of HIV-1 RT by TFV-diphosphate (DP)+EFV and FTC-TP+EFV combinations.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>This study demonstrated a clear correlation between the synergistic antiviral activities of TFV+FTC, TFV+EFV, FTC+EFV, and TFV+FTC+EFV combinations and synergistic HIV-1 RT inhibition at the enzymatic level. We propose the molecular mechanisms for the TFV+FTC+EFV synergy to be a combination of increased levels of the active metabolites TFV-DP and FTC-TP and enhanced DEC formation by a chain-terminated DNA and HIV-1 RT in the presence of the second and the third drug in the combination. This study furthers the understanding of the longstanding observations of synergistic anti-HIV-1 effects of many NRTI+NNRTI and certain NRTI+NRTI combinations in cell culture, and provides biochemical evidence that combinations of anti-HIV agents can increase the intracellular drug efficacy, without increasing the extracellular drug concentrations.</p

Reward-Related Dorsal Striatal Activity Differences between Former and Current Cocaine Dependent Individuals during an Interactive Competitive Game

Cocaine addiction is characterized by impulsivity, impaired social relationships, and abnormal mesocorticolimbic reward processing, but their interrelationships relative to stages of cocaine addiction are unclear. We assessed blood-oxygenation-level dependent (BOLD) signal in ventral and dorsal striatum during functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) in current (CCD; n = 30) and former (FCD; n = 28) cocaine dependent subjects as well as healthy control (HC; n = 31) subjects while playing an interactive competitive Domino game involving risk-taking and reward/punishment processing. Out-of-scanner impulsivity-related measures were also collected. Although both FCD and CCD subjects scored significantly higher on impulsivity-related measures than did HC subjects, only FCD subjects had differences in striatal activation, specifically showing hypoactivation during their response to gains versus losses in right dorsal caudate, a brain region linked to habituation, cocaine craving and addiction maintenance. Right caudate activity in FCD subjects also correlated negatively with impulsivity-related measures of self-reported compulsivity and sensitivity to reward. These findings suggest that remitted cocaine dependence is associated with striatal dysfunction during social reward processing in a manner linked to compulsivity and reward sensitivity measures. Future research should investigate the extent to which such differences might reflect underlying vulnerabilities linked to cocaine-using propensities (e.g., relapses)

New Pharmacological Agents to Aid Smoking Cessation and Tobacco Harm Reduction: What has been Investigated and What is in the Pipeline?

A wide range of support is available to help smokers to quit and aid attempts at harm reduction, including three first-line smoking cessation medications: nicotine replacement therapy, varenicline and bupropion. Despite the efficacy of these, there is a continual need to diversify the range of medications so that the needs of tobacco users are met. This paper compares the first-line smoking cessation medications to: 1) two variants of these existing products: new galenic formulations of varenicline and novel nicotine delivery devices; and 2) twenty-four alternative products: cytisine (novel outside of central and eastern Europe), nortriptyline, other tricyclic antidepressants, electronic cigarettes, clonidine (an anxiolytic), other anxiolytics (e.g. buspirone), selective 5-hydroxytryptamine (5-HT) reuptake inhibitors, supplements (e.g. St John’s wort), silver acetate, nicobrevin, modafinil, venlafaxine, monoamine oxidase inhibitors (MAOI), opioid antagonist, nicotinic acetylcholine receptors (nAChR) antagonists, glucose tablets, selective cannabinoid type 1 receptor antagonists, nicotine vaccines, drugs that affect gamma-aminobutyric acid (GABA) transmission, drugs that affect N-methyl-D-aspartate receptors (NMDA), dopamine agonists (e.g. levodopa), pioglitazone (Actos; OMS405), noradrenaline reuptake inhibitors, and the weight management drug lorcaserin. Six criteria are used: relative efficacy, relative safety, relative cost, relative use (overall impact of effective medication use), relative scope (ability to serve new groups of patients), and relative ease of use (ESCUSE). Many of these products are in the early stages of clinical trials, however, cytisine looks most promising in having established efficacy and safety and being of low cost. Electronic cigarettes have become very popular, appear to be efficacious and are safer than smoking, but issues of continued dependence and possible harms need to be considered

A new measure of longitudinal connectivity for stream networks

Habitat connectivity is a central factor in shaping aquatic biological communities, but few tools exist to describe and quantify this attribute at a network scale in riverine systems. Here, we develop a new index to quantify longitudinal connectivity of river networks based on the expected probability of an organism being able to move freely between two random points of the network. We apply this index to two fish life histories and evaluate the effects of the number, passability, and placement of barriers on river network connectivity through the use of simulated dendritic ecological networks. We then extend the index to a real world dendritic river system in Newfoundland, Canada. Our results indicate that connectivity in river systems, as represented by our index, is most impacted by the first few barriers added to the system. This is in contrast to terrestrial systems, which are more resilient to low levels of connectivity. The results show a curvilinear relationship between barrier passability and structural connectivity. This suggests that an incremental improvement in passability would result in a greater improvement to river network connectivity for more permeable barriers than for less permeable barriers. Our analysis of the index in simulated and real river networks also showed that barrier placement played an important role in connectivity. Not surprisingly, barriers located near the river mouth have the greatest impact on fish with diadromous life histories while those located near the center of the river network have the most impact on fish with potadromous life histories. The proposed index is conceptually simple and sufficiently flexible to deal with variations in river structure and biological communities. The index will enable researchers to account for connectivity in habitat studies and will also allow resource managers to characterize watersheds, assess cumulative impacts of multiple barriers and determine priorities for restoration