Traditional craftspeople are not copycats: Potter idiosyncrasies in vessel morphogenesis

Ceramics are quintessential indicators of human culture and its evolution across generations of social learners. Cultural transmission and evolution theory frequently emphasizes apprentices' need for accurate imitation (high-fidelity copying) of their mentors' actions. However, the ensuing prediction of standardized fashioning patterns within communities of practice has not been directly addressed in handicraft traditions such as pottery throwing. To fill this gap, we analysed variation in vessel morphogenesis amongst and within traditional potters from culturally different workshops producing for the same market. We demonstrate that, for each vessel type studied, individual potters reliably followed distinctive routes through morphological space towards a much-less-variable common final shape. Our results indicate that mastering the pottery handicraft does not result from accurately reproducing a particular model behaviour specific to the community's cultural tradition. We provide evidence that, at the level of the elementary clay-deforming gestures, individual learning rather than simple imitation is required for the acquisition of a complex motor skill such as throwing pottery

Non-monotonicity on a spatio-temporally defined cyclic task: evidence of two movement types?

We tested 23 healthy participants who performed rhythmic horizontal movements of the elbow. The required amplitude and frequency ranges of the movements were specified to the participants using a closed shape on a phase-plane display, showing angular velocity versus angular position, such that participants had to continuously control both the speed and the displacement of their forearm. We found that the combined accuracy in velocity and position throughout the movement was not a monotonic function of movement speed. Our findings suggest that specific combinations of required movement frequency and amplitude give rise to two distinct types of movements: one of a more rhythmic nature, and the other of a more discrete nature

Modelling the Costs and Effects of Selective and Universal Hospital Admission Screening for Methicillin-Resistant Staphylococcus aureus

Background: Screening at hospital admission for carriage of methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) has been proposed as a strategy to reduce nosocomial infections. The objective of this study was to determine the long-term costs and health benefits of selective and universal screening for MRSA at hospital admission, using both PCR-based and chromogenic media-based tests in various settings. Methodology/Principal Findings: A simulation model of MRSA transmission was used to determine costs and effects over 15 years from a US healthcare perspective. We compared admission screening together with isolation of identified carriers against a baseline policy without screening or isolation. Strategies included selective screening of high risk patients or universal admission screening, with PCR-based or chromogenic media-based tests, in medium (5%) or high nosocomial prevalence (15%) settings. The costs of screening and isolation per averted MRSA infection were lowest using selective chromogenic-based screening in high and medium prevalence settings, at $4,100 and$10,300, respectively. Replacing the chromogenic-based test with a PCR-based test costs $13,000 and$36,200 per additional infection averted, and subsequent extension to universal screening with PCR would cost $131,000 and$232,700 per additional infection averted, in high and medium prevalence settings respectively. Assuming $17,645 benefit per infection averted, the most cost-saving strategies in high and medium prevalence settings were selective screening with PCR and selective screening with chromogenic, respectively. Conclusions/ Significance: Admission screening costs$4,100-$21,200 per infection averted, depending on strategy and setting. Including financial benefits from averted infections, screening could well be cost saving

Quantifying Type-Specific Reproduction Numbers for Nosocomial Pathogens: Evidence for Heightened Transmission of an Asian Sequence Type 239 MRSA Clone

An important determinant of a pathogen's success is the rate at which it is transmitted from infected to susceptible hosts. Although there are anecdotal reports that methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) clones vary in their transmissibility in hospital settings, attempts to quantify such variation are lacking for common subtypes, as are methods for addressing this question using routinely-collected MRSA screening data in endemic settings. Here we present a method to quantify the time-varying transmissibility of different subtypes of common bacterial nosocomial pathogens using routine surveillance data. The method adapts approaches for estimating reproduction numbers based on the probabilistic reconstruction of epidemic trees, but uses relative hazards rather than serial intervals to assign probabilities to different sources for observed transmission events. The method is applied to data collected as part of a retrospective observational study of a concurrent MRSA outbreak in the United Kingdom with dominant endemic MRSA clones (ST22 and ST36) and an Asian ST239 MRSA strain (ST239-TW) in two linked adult intensive care units, and compared with an approach based on a fully parametric transmission model. The results provide support for the hypothesis that the clones responded differently to an infection control measure based on the use of topical antiseptics, which was more effective at reducing transmission of endemic clones. They also suggest that in one of the two ICUs patients colonized or infected with the ST239-TW MRSA clone had consistently higher risks of transmitting MRSA to patients free of MRSA. These findings represent some of the first quantitative evidence of enhanced transmissibility of a pandemic MRSA lineage, and highlight the potential value of tailoring hospital infection control measures to specific pathogen subtypes

The Population Genetics of Pseudomonas aeruginosa Isolates from Different Patient Populations Exhibits High-Level Host Specificity

Objective To determine whether highly prevalent P. aeruginosa sequence types (ST) in Dutch cystic fibrosis (CF) patients are specifically linked to CF patients we investigated the population structure of P. aeruginosa from different clinical backgrounds. We first selected the optimal genotyping method by comparing pulsed-field gel electrophoresis (PFGE), multilocus sequence typing (MLST) and multilocus variable number tandem-repeat analysis (MLVA). Methods Selected P. aeruginosa isolates (n = 60) were genotyped with PFGE, MLST and MLVA to determine the diversity index (DI) and congruence (adjusted Rand and Wallace coefficients). Subsequently, isolates from patients admitted to two different ICUs (n = 205), from CF patients (n = 100) and from non-ICU, non-CF patients (n = 58, of which 19 were community acquired) were genotyped with MLVA to determine distribution of genotypes and genetic diversity. Results Congruence between the typing methods was >79% and DIs were similar and all >0.963. Based on costs, ease, speed and possibilities to compare results between labs an adapted MLVA scheme called MLVA9-Utrecht was selected as the preferred typing method. In 363 clinical isolates 252 different MLVA types (MTs) were identified, indicating a highly diverse population (DI = 0.995; CI = 0.993–0.997). DI levels were similarly high in the diverse clinical sources (all >0.981) and only eight genotypes were shared. MTs were highly specific (>80%) for the different patient populations, even for similar patient groups (ICU patients) in two distinct geographic regions, with only three of 142 ICU genotypes detected in both ICUs. The two major CF clones were unique to CF patients. Conclusion The population structure of P. aeruginosa isolates is highly diverse and population specific without evidence for a core lineage in which major CF, hospital or community clones co-cluster. The two genotypes highly prevalent among Dutch CF patients appeared unique to CF patients, suggesting specific adaptation of these clones to the CF lung

Diagnostic accuracy of plasma NT-proBNP levels for excluding cardiac abnormalities in the very elderly

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>In the elderly the diagnosis of chronic heart failure is often challenging and the availability of echocardiography can be limited. Plasma levels of NT-proBNP are valuable tools to diagnose patients with heart failure. However, the performance of this biomarker to detect cardiac abnormalities in the very elderly remains unclear. The aims of this study were to investigate the relation between NT-proBNP and cardiac abnormalities and to evaluate the use of NT-proBNP to exclude structural and functional cardiac abnormalities in a community-based sample of "well-functioning" nonagenarians.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>A diagnostic cross-sectional study embedded within the Leiden 85-plus Study in the municipality of Leiden, the Netherlands. Plasma NT-proBNP levels were measured and 2-dimensional echocardiography was performed in a subgroup of 80 well-functioning nonagenarians. Linear regression analysis was used to explore the relation between NT-proBNP and cardiac abnormalities and ROC curve analysis was used to assess the performance of NT-proBNP to exclude cardiac abnormalities. The upper limit of the lowest tertile of NT-proBNP was used as a cut-off value.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>NT-proBNP levels were associated with abnormal left ventricular (LV) dimensions, LV systolic and diastolic function, left atrial enlargement and valvular heart disease. LV mass, E/A ratio and degree of aortic regurgitation were identified as independent predictors of NT-proBNP. NT-proBNP levels were higher with greater number of echocardiographic abnormalities (P < 0.001). A cut-off level of 269.5 pg/mL identified patients with abnormal LV dimensions or depressed LV systolic function (sensitivity 85%, negative predictive value (NPV) 77%, area under the curve 0.75 (95% CI 0.64-0.85)). In addition, high NPV were found for LV systolic dysfunction, left atrial enlargement, severe valvular heart disease and pulmonary hypertension. The test performance of NT-proBNP to exclude any echocardiographic abnormality showed a sensitivity of 82% and a NPV of 65%.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>In this convenience sample of well-functioning nonagenarians NT-proBNP was related to a wide variety of functional and structural echocardiographic abnormalities. Moreover, NT-proBNP could be used to exclude echocardiographic abnormalities in well-functioning nonagenarians and might be used to indicate who needs to be referred for further cardiovascular examination.</p

Estimating the costs of school closure for mitigating an influenza pandemic

BACKGROUND: School closure is a key component of many countries' plans to mitigate the effect of an influenza pandemic. Although a number of studies have suggested that such a policy might reduce the incidence, there are no published studies of the cost of such policies. This study attempts to fill this knowledge gap METHODS: School closure is expected to lead to significant work absenteeism of working parents who are likely to be the main care givers to their dependent children at home. The cost of absenteeism due to school closure is calculated as the paid productivity loss of parental absenteeism during the period of school closure. The cost is estimated from societal perspective using a nationally representative survey. RESULTS: The results show that overall about 16% of the workforce is likely to be the main caregiver for dependent children and therefore likely to take absenteeism. This rises to 30% in the health and social care sector, as a large proportion of the workforce are women. The estimated costs of school closure are significant, at 0.2 pounds bn - 1.2 pounds bn per week. School closure is likely to significantly exacerbate the pressures on the health system through staff absenteeism. CONCLUSION: The estimates of school closure associated absenteeism and the projected cost would be useful for pandemic planning for business continuity, and for cost effectiveness evaluation of different pandemic influenza mitigation strategies

The Future of Biologic Agents in the Treatment of Sjögren’s Syndrome

The gain in knowledge regarding the cellular mechanisms of T and B lymphocyte activity in the pathogenesis of Sjögren’s syndrome (SS) and the current availability of various biological agents (anti-TNF-α, IFN- α, anti-CD20, and anti-CD22) have resulted in new strategies for therapeutic intervention. In SS, various phase I and II studies have been performed to evaluate these new strategies. Currently, B cell-directed therapies seem to be more promising than T cell-related therapies. However, large, randomized, placebo-controlled clinical trials are needed to confirm the promising results of these early studies. When performing these trials, special attention has to be paid to prevent the occasional occurrence of the severe side effects

Time variations in the transmissibility of pandemic influenza in Prussia, Germany, from 1918–19

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Time variations in transmission potential have rarely been examined with regard to pandemic influenza. This paper reanalyzes the temporal distribution of pandemic influenza in Prussia, Germany, from 1918–19 using the daily numbers of deaths, which totaled 8911 from 29 September 1918 to 1 February 1919, and the distribution of the time delay from onset to death in order to estimate the effective reproduction number, Rt, defined as the actual average number of secondary cases per primary case at a given time.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>A discrete-time branching process was applied to back-calculated incidence data, assuming three different serial intervals (i.e. 1, 3 and 5 days). The estimated reproduction numbers exhibited a clear association between the estimates and choice of serial interval; i.e. the longer the assumed serial interval, the higher the reproduction number. Moreover, the estimated reproduction numbers did not decline monotonically with time, indicating that the patterns of secondary transmission varied with time. These tendencies are consistent with the differences in estimates of the reproduction number of pandemic influenza in recent studies; high estimates probably originate from a long serial interval and a model assumption about transmission rate that takes no account of time variation and is applied to the entire epidemic curve.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The present findings suggest that in order to offer robust assessments it is critically important to clarify in detail the natural history of a disease (e.g. including the serial interval) as well as heterogeneous patterns of transmission. In addition, given that human contact behavior probably influences transmissibility, individual countermeasures (e.g. household quarantine and mask-wearing) need to be explored to construct effective non-pharmaceutical interventions.</p