Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks, 1990-2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

SummaryBackground The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 provides an up-to-date synthesis of the evidence for risk factor exposure and the attributable burden of disease. By providing national and subnational assessments spanning the past 25 years, this study can inform debates on the importance of addressing risks in context. Methods We used the comparative risk assessment framework developed for previous iterations of the Global Burden of Disease Study to estimate attributable deaths, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and trends in exposure by age group, sex, year, and geography for 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks from 1990 to 2015. This study included 388 risk-outcome pairs that met World Cancer Research Fund-defined criteria for convincing or probable evidence. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from randomised controlled trials, cohorts, pooled cohorts, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. We developed a metric that allows comparisons of exposure across risk factors—the summary exposure value. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk level, we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We decomposed trends in attributable burden into contributions from population growth, population age structure, risk exposure, and risk-deleted cause-specific DALY rates. We characterised risk exposure in relation to a Socio-demographic Index (SDI). Findings Between 1990 and 2015, global exposure to unsafe sanitation, household air pollution, childhood underweight, childhood stunting, and smoking each decreased by more than 25%. Global exposure for several occupational risks, high body-mass index (BMI), and drug use increased by more than 25% over the same period. All risks jointly evaluated in 2015 accounted for 57·8% (95% CI 56·6–58·8) of global deaths and 41·2% (39·8–42·8) of DALYs. In 2015, the ten largest contributors to global DALYs among Level 3 risks were high systolic blood pressure (211·8 million [192·7 million to 231·1 million] global DALYs), smoking (148·6 million [134·2 million to 163·1 million]), high fasting plasma glucose (143·1 million [125·1 million to 163·5 million]), high BMI (120·1 million [83·8 million to 158·4 million]), childhood undernutrition (113·3 million [103·9 million to 123·4 million]), ambient particulate matter (103·1 million [90·8 million to 115·1 million]), high total cholesterol (88·7 million [74·6 million to 105·7 million]), household air pollution (85·6 million [66·7 million to 106·1 million]), alcohol use (85·0 million [77·2 million to 93·0 million]), and diets high in sodium (83·0 million [49·3 million to 127·5 million]). From 1990 to 2015, attributable DALYs declined for micronutrient deficiencies, childhood undernutrition, unsafe sanitation and water, and household air pollution; reductions in risk-deleted DALY rates rather than reductions in exposure drove these declines. Rising exposure contributed to notable increases in attributable DALYs from high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, occupational carcinogens, and drug use. Environmental risks and childhood undernutrition declined steadily with SDI; low physical activity, high BMI, and high fasting plasma glucose increased with SDI. In 119 countries, metabolic risks, such as high BMI and fasting plasma glucose, contributed the most attributable DALYs in 2015. Regionally, smoking still ranked among the leading five risk factors for attributable DALYs in 109 countries; childhood underweight and unsafe sex remained primary drivers of early death and disability in much of sub-Saharan Africa. Interpretation Declines in some key environmental risks have contributed to declines in critical infectious diseases. Some risks appear to be invariant to SDI. Increasing risks, including high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, drug use, and some occupational exposures, contribute to rising burden from some conditions, but also provide opportunities for intervention. Some highly preventable risks, such as smoking, remain major causes of attributable DALYs, even as exposure is declining. Public policy makers need to pay attention to the risks that are increasingly major contributors to global burden. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Long-term cognitive and behavioral consequences of neonatal encephalopathy following perinatal asphyxia: a review

Neonatal encephalopathy (NE) following perinatal asphyxia (PA) is considered an important cause of later neurodevelopmental impairment in infants born at term. This review discusses long-term consequences for general cognitive functioning, educational achievement, neuropsychological functioning and behavior. In all areas reviewed, the outcome of children with mild NE is consistently positive and the outcome of children with severe NE consistently negative. However, children with moderate NE form a more heterogeneous group with respect to outcome. On average, intelligence scores are below those of children with mild NE and age-matched peers, but within the normal range. With respect to educational achievement, difficulties have been found in the domains reading, spelling and arithmetic/mathematics. So far, studies of neuropsychological functioning have yielded ambiguous results in children with moderate NE. A few studies suggest elevated rates of hyperactivity in children with moderate NE and autism in children with moderate and severe NE. Conclusion: Behavioral monitoring is required for all children with NE. In addition, systematic, detailed neuropsychological examination is needed especially for children with moderate NE

Rare copy number variation in cerebral palsy

As per publisher: published online 22 May 2013Recent studies have established the role of rare copy number variants (CNVs) in several neurological disorders but the contribution of rare CNVs to cerebral palsy (CP) is not known. Fifty Caucasian families having children with CP were studied using two microarray designs. Potentially pathogenic, rare (<1% population frequency) CNVs were identified, and their frequency determined, by comparing the CNVs found in cases with 8329 adult controls with no known neurological disorders. Ten of the 50 cases (20%) had rare CNVs of potential relevance to CP; there were a total of 14 CNVs, which were observed in <0.1% (<8/8329) of the control population. Eight inherited from an unaffected mother: a 751-kb deletion including FSCB, a 1.5-Mb duplication of 7q21.13, a 534-kb duplication of 15q11.2, a 446-kb duplication including CTNND2, a 219-kb duplication including MCPH1, a 169-kb duplication of 22q13.33, a 64-kb duplication of MC2R, and a 135-bp exonic deletion of SLC06A1. Three inherited from an unaffected father: a 386-kb deletion of 12p12.2-p12.1, a 234-kb duplication of 10q26.13, and a 4-kb exonic deletion of COPS3. The inheritance was unknown for three CNVs: a 157-bp exonic deletion of ACOX1, a 693-kb duplication of 17q25.3, and a 265-kb duplication of DAAM1. This is the first systematic study of CNVs in CP, and although it did not identify de novo mutations, has shown inherited, rare CNVs involving potentially pathogenic genes and pathways requiring further investigation.Gai McMichael, Santhosh Girirajan, Andres Moreno-De-Luca, Jozef Gecz, Chloe Shard, Lam Son Nguyen, Jillian Nicholl, Catherine Gibson, Eric Haan, Evan Eichler, Christa Lese Martin and Alastair MacLenna

Burden of musculoskeletal disorders in the Eastern Mediterranean Region, 1990-2013: findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013.

OBJECTIVES: We used findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 to report the burden of musculoskeletal disorders in the Eastern Mediterranean Region (EMR). METHODS: The burden of musculoskeletal disorders was calculated for the EMR's 22 countries between 1990 and 2013. A systematic analysis was performed on mortality and morbidity data to estimate prevalence, death, years of live lost, years lived with disability and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). RESULTS: For musculoskeletal disorders, the crude DALYs rate per 100 000 increased from 1297.1 (95% uncertainty interval (UI) 924.3-1703.4) in 1990 to 1606.0 (95% UI 1141.2-2130.4) in 2013. During 1990-2013, the total DALYs of musculoskeletal disorders increased by 105.2% in the EMR compared with a 58.0% increase in the rest of the world. The burden of musculoskeletal disorders as a proportion of total DALYs increased from 2.4% (95% UI 1.7-3.0) in 1990 to 4.7% (95% UI 3.6-5.8) in 2013. The range of point prevalence (per 1000) among the EMR countries was 28.2-136.0 for low back pain, 27.3-49.7 for neck pain, 9.7-37.3 for osteoarthritis (OA), 0.6-2.2 for rheumatoid arthritis and 0.1-0.8 for gout. Low back pain and neck pain had the highest burden in EMR countries. CONCLUSIONS: This study shows a high burden of musculoskeletal disorders, with a faster increase in EMR compared with the rest of the world. The reasons for this faster increase need to be explored. Our findings call for incorporating prevention and control programmes that should include improving health data, addressing risk factors, providing evidence-based care and community programmes to increase awareness

Prediction and prevention of suicide in patients with unipolar depression and anxiety

Epidemiological data suggest that between 59 and 87% of suicide victims suffered from major depression while up to 15% of these patients will eventually commit suicide. Male gender, previous suicide attempt(s), comorbid mental disorders, adverse life-situations, acute psycho-social stressors etc. also constitute robust risk factors. Anxiety and minor depression present with a low to moderate increase in suicide risk but anxiety-depression comorbidity increases this risk dramatically Contrary to the traditional psychoanalytic approach which considers suicide as a retrospective murder or an aggression turned in-wards, more recent studies suggest that the motivations to commit suicide may vary and are often too obscure. Neurobiological data suggest that low brain serotonin activity might play a key role along with the tryptophan hydroxylase gene. Social factors include social support networks, religion etc. It is proven that most suicide victims had asked for professional help just before committing suicide, however they were either not diagnosed (particularly males) or the treatment they received was inappropriate or inadequate. The conclusion is that promoting suicide prevention requires the improving of training and skills of both psychiatrists and many non-psychiatrists and especially GPs in recognizing and treating depression and anxiety. A shift of focus of attention is required in primary care to detect potentially suicidal patients presenting with psychological problems. The proper use of antidepressants, after a careful diagnostic evaluation, is important and recent studies suggest that successful acute and long-term antidepressant pharmacotherapy reduces suicide morbidity and mortality

RNA Interference in Schistosoma mansoni Schistosomula: Selectivity, Sensitivity and Operation for Larger-Scale Screening

RNA interference (RNAi) is a technique to selectively suppress mRNA of individual genes and, consequently, their cognate proteins. RNAi using double-stranded (ds) RNA has been used to interrogate the function of mainly single genes in the flatworm, Schistosoma mansoni, one of a number of schistosome species causing schistosomiasis. In consideration of large-scale screens to identify candidate drug targets, we examined the selectivity and sensitivity (the degree of suppression) of RNAi for 11 genes produced in different tissues of the parasite: the gut, tegument (surface) and otherwise. We used the schistosomulum stage prepared from infective cercariae larvae which are accessible in large numbers and adaptable to automated screening platforms. We found that RNAi suppresses transcripts selectively, however, the sensitivity of suppression varies (40%–>75%). No obvious changes in the parasite occurred post-RNAi, including after targeting the mRNA of genes that had been computationally predicted to be essential for survival. Additionally, we defined operational parameters to facilitate large-scale RNAi, including choice of culture medium, transfection strategy to deliver dsRNA, dose- and time-dependency, and dosing limits. Finally, using fluorescent probes, we show that the developing gut allows rapid entrance of dsRNA into the parasite to initiate RNAi