Arteriopathy diagnosis in childhood arterial ischemic stroke: results of the vascular effects of infection in pediatric stroke study.

Background and purposeAlthough arteriopathies are the most common cause of childhood arterial ischemic stroke, and the strongest predictor of recurrent stroke, they are difficult to diagnose. We studied the role of clinical data and follow-up imaging in diagnosing cerebral and cervical arteriopathy in children with arterial ischemic stroke.MethodsVascular effects of infection in pediatric stroke, an international prospective study, enrolled 355 cases of arterial ischemic stroke (age, 29 days to 18 years) at 39 centers. A neuroradiologist and stroke neurologist independently reviewed vascular imaging of the brain (mandatory for inclusion) and neck to establish a diagnosis of arteriopathy (definite, possible, or absent) in 3 steps: (1) baseline imaging alone; (2) plus clinical data; (3) plus follow-up imaging. A 4-person committee, including a second neuroradiologist and stroke neurologist, adjudicated disagreements. Using the final diagnosis as the gold standard, we calculated the sensitivity and specificity of each step.ResultsCases were aged median 7.6 years (interquartile range, 2.8-14 years); 56% boys. The majority (52%) was previously healthy; 41% had follow-up vascular imaging. Only 56 (16%) required adjudication. The gold standard diagnosis was definite arteriopathy in 127 (36%), possible in 34 (9.6%), and absent in 194 (55%). Sensitivity was 79% at step 1, 90% at step 2, and 94% at step 3; specificity was high throughout (99%, 100%, and 100%), as was agreement between reviewers (κ=0.77, 0.81, and 0.78).ConclusionsClinical data and follow-up imaging help, yet uncertainty in the diagnosis of childhood arteriopathy remains. This presents a challenge to better understanding the mechanisms underlying these arteriopathies and designing strategies for prevention of childhood arterial ischemic stroke

Recurrent stroke predictors differ in medically treated patients with pathogenic vs. other PFOs.

OBJECTIVE: To examine predictors of stroke recurrence in patients with a high vs a low likelihood of having an incidental patent foramen ovale (PFO) as defined by the Risk of Paradoxical Embolism (RoPE) score. METHODS: Patients in the RoPE database with cryptogenic stroke (CS) and PFO were classified as having a probable PFO-related stroke (RoPE score of >6, n = 647) and others (RoPE score of ≤6 points, n = 677). We tested 15 clinical, 5 radiologic, and 3 echocardiographic variables for associations with stroke recurrence using Cox survival models with component database as a stratification factor. An interaction with RoPE score was checked for the variables that were significant. RESULTS: Follow-up was available for 92%, 79%, and 57% at 1, 2, and 3 years. Overall, a higher recurrence risk was associated with an index TIA. For all other predictors, effects were significantly different in the 2 RoPE score categories. For the low RoPE score group, but not the high RoPE score group, older age and antiplatelet (vs warfarin) treatment predicted recurrence. Conversely, echocardiographic features (septal hypermobility and a small shunt) and a prior (clinical) stroke/TIA were significant predictors in the high but not low RoPE score group. CONCLUSION: Predictors of recurrence differ when PFO relatedness is classified by the RoPE score, suggesting that patients with CS and PFO form a heterogeneous group with different stroke mechanisms. Echocardiographic features were only associated with recurrence in the high RoPE score group

An index to identify stroke-related vs incidental patent foramen ovale in cryptogenic stroke.

OBJECTIVE: We aimed to create an index to stratify cryptogenic stroke (CS) patients with patent foramen ovale (PFO) by their likelihood that the stroke was related to their PFO. METHODS: Using data from 12 component studies, we used generalized linear mixed models to predict the presence of PFO among patients with CS, and derive a simple index to stratify patients with CS. We estimated the stratum-specific PFO-attributable fraction and stratum-specific stroke/TIA recurrence rates. RESULTS: Variables associated with a PFO in CS patients included younger age, the presence of a cortical stroke on neuroimaging, and the absence of these factors: diabetes, hypertension, smoking, and prior stroke or TIA. The 10-point Risk of Paradoxical Embolism score is calculated from these variables so that the youngest patients with superficial strokes and without vascular risk factors have the highest score. PFO prevalence increased from 23% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 19%-26%) in those with 0 to 3 points to 73% (95% CI: 66%-79%) in those with 9 or 10 points, corresponding to attributable fraction estimates of approximately 0% to 90%. Kaplan-Meier estimated stroke/TIA 2-year recurrence rates decreased from 20% (95% CI: 12%-28%) in the lowest Risk of Paradoxical Embolism score stratum to 2% (95% CI: 0%-4%) in the highest. CONCLUSION: Clinical characteristics identify CS patients who vary markedly in PFO prevalence, reflecting clinically important variation in the probability that a discovered PFO is likely to be stroke-related vs incidental. Patients in strata more likely to have stroke-related PFOs have lower recurrence risk

The Risk of Paradoxical Embolism (RoPE) Study: initial description of the completed database.

BACKGROUND: Detecting a benefit from closure of patent foramen ovale in patients with cryptogenic stroke is hampered by low rates of stroke recurrence and uncertainty about the causal role of patent foramen ovale in the index event. A method to predict patent foramen ovale-attributable recurrence risk is needed. However, individual databases generally have too few stroke recurrences to support risk modeling. Prior studies of this population have been limited by low statistical power for examining factors related to recurrence. AIMS: The aim of this study was to develop a database to support modeling of patent foramen ovale-attributable recurrence risk by combining extant data sets. METHODS: We identified investigators with extant databases including subjects with cryptogenic stroke investigated for patent foramen ovale, determined the availability and characteristics of data in each database, collaboratively specified the variables to be included in the Risk of Paradoxical Embolism database, harmonized the variables across databases, and collected new primary data when necessary and feasible. RESULTS: The Risk of Paradoxical Embolism database has individual clinical, radiologic, and echocardiographic data from 12 component databases, including subjects with cryptogenic stroke both with (n = 1925) and without (n = 1749) patent foramen ovale. In the patent foramen ovale subjects, a total of 381 outcomes (stroke, transient ischemic attack, death) occurred (median follow-up 2·2 years). While there were substantial variations in data collection between studies, there was sufficient overlap to define a common set of variables suitable for risk modeling. CONCLUSION: While individual studies are inadequate for modeling patent foramen ovale-attributable recurrence risk, collaboration between investigators has yielded a database with sufficient power to identify those patients at highest risk for a patent foramen ovale-related stroke recurrence who may have the greatest potential benefit from patent foramen ovale closure