Energy and complexity: new ways forward

The purpose of this paper is to review the application of complexity science methods in understanding energy systems and system change. The challenge of moving to sustainable energy systems which provide secure, affordable and low-carbon energy services requires the application of methods which recognise the complexity of energy systems in relation to social, technological, economic and environmental aspects. Energy systems consist of many actors, interacting through networks, leading to emergent properties and adaptive and learning processes. Insights on these type of phenomena have been investigated in other contexts by complex systems theory. However, these insights are only recently beginning to be applied to understanding energy systems and systems transitions. The paper discusses the aspects of energy systems (in terms of technologies, ecosystems, users, institutions, business models) that lend themselves to the application of complexity science and its characteristics of emergence and coevolution. Complex-systems modelling differs from standard (e.g. economic) modelling and offers capabilities beyond those of conventional models, yet these methods are only beginning to realize anything like their full potential to address the most critical energy challenges. In particular there is significant potential for progress in understanding those challenges that reside at the interface of technology and behaviour. Some of the computational methods that are currently available are reviewed: agent-based and network modelling. The advantages and limitations of these modelling techniques are discussed. Finally, the paper considers the emerging themes of transport, energy behaviour and physical infrastructure systems in recent research from complex-systems energy modelling. Although complexity science is not well understood by practitioners in the energy domain (and is often difficult to communicate), models can be used to aid decision-making at multiple levels e.g. national and local, and to aid understanding and allow decision making. The techniques and tools of complexity science, therefore, offer a powerful means of understanding the complex decision-making processes that are needed to realise a low-carbon energy system. We conclude with recommendations for future areas of research and application

Variation in compulsory psychiatric inpatient admission in England:a cross-sectional, multilevel analysis

Background: Rates of compulsory admission have increased in England in recent decades, and this trend is accelerating. Studying variation in rates between people and places can help identify modifiable causes. Objectives: To quantify and model variances in the rate of compulsory admission in England at different spatial levels and to assess the extent to which this was explained by characteristics of people and places. Design: Cross-sectional analysis using multilevel statistical modelling. Setting: England, including 98% of Census lower layer super output areas (LSOAs), 95% of primary care trusts (PCTs), 93% of general practices and all 69 NHS providers of specialist mental health services. Participants: 1,287,730 patients. Main outcome measure: The study outcome was compulsory admission, defined as time spent in an inpatient mental illness bed subject to the Mental Health Act (2007) in 2010/11. We excluded patients detained under sections applying to emergency assessment only (including those in places of safety), guardianship or supervision of community treatment. The control group comprised all other users of specialist mental health services during the same period. Data sources: The Mental Health Minimum Data Set (MHMDS). Data on explanatory variables, characterising each of the spatial levels in the data set, were obtained from a wide range of sources, and were linked using MHMDS identifiers. Results: A total of 3.5% of patients had at least one compulsory admission in 2010/11. Of (unexplained) variance in the null model, 84.5% occurred between individuals. Statistically significant variance occurred between LSOAs [6.7%, 95% confidence interval (CI) 6.2% to 7.2%] and provider trusts (6.9%, 95% CI 4.3% to 9.5%). Variances at these higher levels remained statistically significant even after adjusting for a large number of explanatory variables, which together explained only 10.2% of variance in the study outcome. The number of provider trusts whose observed rate of compulsory admission differed from the model average to a statistically significant extent fell from 45 in the null model to 20 in the fully adjusted model. We found statistically significant associations between compulsory admission and age, gender, ethnicity, local area deprivation and ethnic density. There was a small but statistically significant association between (higher) bed occupancy and compulsory admission, but this was subsequently confounded by other covariates. Adjusting for PCT investment in mental health services did not improve model fit in the fully adjusted models. Conclusions: This was the largest study of compulsory admissions in England. While 85% of the variance in this outcome occurred between individuals, statistically significant variance (around 7% each) occurred between places (LSOAs) and provider trusts. This higher-level variance in compulsory admission remained largely unchanged even after adjusting for a large number of explanatory variables. We were constrained by data available to us, and therefore our results must be interpreted with caution. We were also unable to consider many hypotheses suggested by the service users, carers and professionals who we consulted. There is an imperative to develop and evaluate interventions to reduce compulsory admission rates. This requires further research to extend our understanding of the reasons why these rates remain so high. Funding: The National Institute for Health Research Health Services and Delivery Research programme

Pragas da melancia e seu controle.

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Recomendações para o controle de pragas em hortas urbanas.

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Recomendações técnicas para o controle de pragas do maxixeiro.

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Discourse and identity in a corpus of lesbian erotica

This article uses corpus linguistic methodologies to explore representations of lesbian desires and identities in a corpus of lesbian erotica from the 1980s and 1990s. We provide a critical examination of the ways in which “lesbian gender,” power, and desire are represented, (re-)produced, and enacted, often in ways that challenge hegemonic discourses of gender and sexuality. By examining word frequencies and collocations, we critically analyze some of the themes, processes, and patterns of representation in the texts. Although rooted in linguistics, we hope this article provides an accessible, interdisciplinary, and timely contribution toward developing understandings of discursive practices surrounding gender and sexuality

Biologia e manejo de mosca minadora no meloeiro.

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Evidence of random magnetic anisotropy in ferrihydrite nanoparticles based on analysis of statistical distributions

We show that the magnetic anisotropy energy of antiferromagnetic ferrihydrite depends on the square root of the nanoparticles volume, using a method based on the analysis of statistical distributions. The size distribution was obtained by transmission electron microscopy, and the anisotropy energy distributions were obtained from ac magnetic susceptibility and magnetic relaxation. The square root dependence corresponds to random local anisotropy, whose average is given by its variance, and can be understood in terms of the recently proposed single phase homogeneous structure of ferrihydrite.Comment: 6 pages, 2 figure