Modelling multiscale collective behavior with Gaussian processes

Collective behavior is characterized by the emergence of large-scale phenomena from local interactions. It is found in many contexts, including political movements, fads and fashions, and animal grouping. In this paper, we aim to elucidate the mechanisms that underlie observed collective behavior by developing a novel mathematical framework based on equation-free modelling procedures and Gaussian process regression. This allows us to circumvent the possible lack of formal mathematical links between scales and instead use statistical emulation to learn an empirical Fokker-Planck equation. Our approach advances our ability to understand how complex systems function at both the individual and collective level when a formal mathematical description of macroscale dynamics is unavailable

Approximate Bayesian inference for individual-based models with emergent dynamics

Individual-based models are used in a variety of scientific domains to study systems composed of multiple agents that interact with one another and lead to complex emergent dynamics at the macroscale. A standard approach in the analysis of these systems is to specify the microscale interaction rules in a simulation model, run simulations, and then qualitatively compare outputs to empirical observations. Recently, more robust methods for inference for these types of models have been introduced, notably approximate Bayesian computation, however major challenges remain due to the computational cost of simulations and the nonlinear nature of many complex systems. Here, we compare two methods of approximate inference in a classic individual-based model of group dynamics with well-studied nonlinear macroscale behaviour; we employ a Gaussian process accelerated ABC method with an approximated likelihood and with a synthetic likelihood. We compare the accuracy of results when re-inferring parameters using a measure of macro-scale disorder (the order parameter) as a summary statistic. Our findings reveal that for a canonical simple model of animal collective movement, parameter inference is accurate and computationally efficient, even when the model is poised at the critical transition between order and disorder

Discontinuous roughage delivery on digestion, rumen metabolism, feed efficiency and liveweight gain of beef steers fed a concentrate diet

Two experiments were carried out to study the effect of feeding a total mixed ration (TMR) compared to feeding the roughage portion of the diet once every two days and separated of the daily delivered concentrate mixture on dry matter intake, nutrient digestibility, ruminal metabolism, feed efficiency and liveweight gain. In Trial 1, thirty beef steers (Braford and Braford × Criollo; initial BW = 259 ± 27 kg) were used in a 69-d feeding trial. Treatments were: total mixed ration (TMR), and the same proportion of ingredients for the ration but roughage offered once every 2-d and separated from the daily delivered concentrate portion of the diet (REOD). Treatments were arranged in a completely randomized design (three pens/ treatment). In both treatments, daily offered ration had on dry matter basis 90% concentrate and 10% grass hay (Setaria italica). Average daily gain (ADG) did not differ among treatment (1013 vs. 1080 g/d for TMR vs. REOD respectively; SEM = 95 g/d). Dry matter intake was greater in TMR compared to REOD (P < 0.01). Gain to feed ratio tended to be better for REOD than TMR (P = 0.07). In Trial 2, four rumen cannulated steers (Braford) were used in an experiment with a crossover design. Treatments were arranged as a 2*2 factorial design, where the first factor consisted of roughage level (RL): (R14) 14% roughage: 86% concentrate and (R7) 7% roughage: 93% concentrate. The second factor was roughage delivery system (RDS; as it was described for Trial 1): TMR and REOD. There were no RL*RDS interactions for intake and digestion (OM, CP, NDF and starch). Both RL were similar for intake and digestion. Roughage delivery system did not significantly affect intake and digestion of OM, CP, NDF, and starch measured by total fecal collection. Total organic acids (TOA), acetate to propionate ratio (A:P), pH, and rumen ammonia concentrations were not affected by RL and RDS. In conclusion, under the conditions of these trials, steers fed a separated roughage source once every 2-d had similar ADG, and tended to be more efficient compared with TMR. Total tract digestibility and rumen environment traits (pH, VFA, and ammonia) were not affected in response to discontinuous roughage delivery.Fil: Arroquy, Jose Ignacio. Instituto Nacional de Tecnología Agropecuaria. Centro Regional Tucumán-Santiago del Estero; Argentina. Universidad Nacional de Santiago del Estero. Facultad de Agronomía y Agroindustrias; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro de Investigaciones y Transferencia de Santiago del Estero. Universidad Nacional de Santiago del Estero. Centro de Investigaciones y Transferencia de Santiago del Estero; ArgentinaFil: Nazareno, Mónica Azucena. Universidad Nacional de Santiago del Estero. Facultad de Agronomía y Agroindustrias; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro de Investigaciones y Transferencia de Santiago del Estero. Universidad Nacional de Santiago del Estero. Centro de Investigaciones y Transferencia de Santiago del Estero; ArgentinaFil: Avila, M.. Instituto Nacional de Tecnología Agropecuaria. Centro Regional Tucumán-Santiago del Estero; ArgentinaFil: Garcia, M.. Universidad Nacional de Santiago del Estero. Facultad de Agronomía y Agroindustrias; ArgentinaFil: Cervetto, J.. Universidad Nacional de Santiago del Estero. Facultad de Agronomía y Agroindustrias; ArgentinaFil: Distel, Roberto Alejandro. Universidad Nacional del Sur; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Bahía Blanca. Centro de Recursos Naturales Renovables de la Zona Semiárida. Universidad Nacional del Sur. Centro de Recursos Naturales Renovables de la Zona Semiárida; ArgentinaFil: Saravia, J. J.. Instituto Nacional de Tecnología Agropecuaria. Centro Regional Tucumán-Santiago del Estero; Argentin

Effect of discontinuous roughage delivery on digestion, rumen metabolism, feed efficiency and live weight gain of beef steers fed a concentrate diet

Two experiments were carried out to study the effect of feeding a total mixed ration (TMR) compared to feeding the roughage portion of the diet once every two days and separated of the daily delivered concentrate mixture on dry matter intake, nutrient digestibility, ruminal metabolism, feed efficiency and liveweight gain. In Trial 1, thirty beef steers (Braford and Braford × Criollo; initial BW = 259 ± 27 kg) were used in a 69-d feeding trial. Treatments were: total mixed ration (TMR), and the same proportion of ingredients for the ration but roughage offered once every 2-d and separated from the daily delivered concentrate portion of the diet (REOD). Treatments were arranged in a completely randomized design (three pens/ treatment). In both treatments, daily offered ration had on dry matter basis 90% concentrate and 10% grass hay (Setaria italica). Average daily gain (ADG) did not differ among treatment (1013 vs. 1080 g/d for TMR vs. REOD respectively; SEM = 95 g/d). Dry matter intake was greater in TMR compared to REOD (P < 0.01). Gain to feed ratio tended to be better for REOD than TMR (P = 0.07). In Trial 2, four rumen cannulated steers (Braford) were used in an experiment with a crossover design. Treatments were arranged as a 2*2 factorial design, where the first factor consisted of roughage level (RL): (R14) 14% roughage: 86% concentrate and (R7) 7% roughage: 93% concentrate. The second factor was roughage delivery system (RDS; as it was described for Trial 1): TMR and REOD. There were no RL*RDS interactions for intake and digestion (OM, CP, NDF and starch). Both RL were similar for intake and digestion. Roughage delivery system did not significantly affect intake and digestion of OM, CP, NDF, and starch measured by total fecal collection. Total organic acids (TOA), acetate to propionate ratio (A:P), pH, and rumen ammonia concentrations were not affected by RL and RDS. In conclusion, under the conditions of these trials, steers fed a separated roughage source once every 2-d had similar ADG, and tended to be more efficient compared with TMR. Total tract digestibility and rumen environment traits (pH, VFA, and ammonia) were not affected in response to discontinuous roughage delivery.Fil: Arroquy, Jose Ignacio. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina. Instituto Nacional de Tecnología Agropecuaria. Centro Regional Tucumán-Santiago del Estero; Argentina. Universidad Nacional de Santiago del Estero. Facultad de Agronomía y Agroindustrias; ArgentinaFil: Nazareno, Mónica Azucena. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina. Universidad Nacional de Santiago del Estero. Facultad de Agronomía y Agroindustrias. Instituto de Ciencias Químicas; ArgentinaFil: García, Elisa Mariana. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina. Universidad Nacional de Santiago del Estero. Facultad de Agronomía y Agroindustrias. Instituto de Ciencias Químicas; ArgentinaFil: Cervetto, Juan Jose. Universidad Nacional de Santiago del Estero. Facultad de Agronomía y Agroindustrias; ArgentinaFil: Avila, M.. Instituto Nacional de Tecnología Agropecuaria. Centro Regional Tucumán-Santiago del Estero; ArgentinaFil: Saravia, J. J.. Instituto Nacional de Tecnología Agropecuaria. Centro Regional Tucumán-Santiago del Estero; ArgentinaFil: Distel, Roberto Alejandro. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina. Universidad Nacional del Sur. Departamento de Agronomía; Argentin

Time evolution of the Partridge-Barton Model

The time evolution of the Partridge-Barton model in the presence of the pleiotropic constraint and deleterious somatic mutations is exactly solved for arbitrary fecundity in the context of a matricial formalism. Analytical expressions for the time dependence of the mean survival probabilities are derived. Using the fact that the asymptotic behavior for large time $t$ is controlled by the largest matrix eigenvalue, we obtain the steady state values for the mean survival probabilities and the Malthusian growth exponent. The mean age of the population exhibits a $t^{-1}$ power law decayment. Some Monte Carlo simulations were also performed and they corroborated our theoretical results.Comment: 10 pages, Latex, 1 postscript figure, published in Phys. Rev. E 61, 5664 (2000

Reduction of Die Wear and Structural Defects of Railway Screw Spike Heads Estimated by FEM

Railway spike screws are manufactured by hot forging on a massive scale, due to each kilometer of railway track needing 8600 spike screws. These components have a low market value, so the head must be formed in a single die stroke. The service life of the dies is directly related to the amount of energy required to form a single screw. The existing standard for spike screws specifies only the required tolerances for the head dimensions, particularly the angle of the hub faces and the radius of agreement of the hub with the cap. Both geometrical variables of the head and process conditions (as-received material diameter and flash thickness) are critical parameters in spike production. This work focuses on minimizing the energy required for forming the head of a railway spike screw by computational simulation. The variables with the highest degree of incidence on the energy, forging load, and filling of the die are ordered statistically. The results show that flash thickness is the variable with the most significant influence on forming energy and forming load, as well as on die filling. Specifically, the minimum forming energy was obtained for combining of a hub wall angle of 1.3° an as-received material diameter of 23.54 mm and a flash thickness of 2.25 mm. Flash thickness generates a lack of filling at the top vertices of the hub, although this defect does not affect the functionality of the part or its serviceability. Finally, the wear is mainly concentrated on the die splice radii, where the highest contact pressure is concentrated according to the computational simulation results.This work is supported by the Serra Húnter program (Generalitat de Catalunya) reference number (UPC-LE-304 (2018)) and by the Aeronautics Advanced Manufacturing Center (CFAA). Thanks also are given to special agreement INTI-Faculty of engineering of Bilbao and to university group grant IT 1337-19

Produção de batata no Rio Grande do Sul.

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Resistance of cactus pear (Opuntia ficus-indica) against Pseudocercospora opuntiae through β‑1,3‑glucanase activity and polyphenolic compounds in cladodes

Black spot disease, caused by the hemibiotrophic fungus Pseudocercospora opuntiae, is one of the main phytosanitary problems of cactus (Opuntia spp.). Through mass selection, one cultivar of Opuntia ficus-indica (L.) Mill. resistant to colonization by P. opuntiae was identified. The ethanolic extract of resistant cladodes showed higher levels of total condensed tannins, flavonoids and polyphenols than those of the susceptible genotypes, generating 93% inhibition of P. opuntiae conidial germination in vitro. The total protein in the resistant genotype showed 300% higher β-1,3-glucanase than the susceptible genotype. This increased activity was able to inhibit germination of conidia by 90%, a similar effect to that of the fungicide Captan® (N‑trichloromethylthio-4-cyclohexene 1,2-dicarboximide). It was shown, for the first time, that the combined action of cactus polyphenols and β-1,3-glucanase contributes significantly to resistance against P. opuntiae. Activity of this enzyme and the phytochemical profile can be used as criteria to predict and detect cactus germplasm with resistance to black spot.Fil: Ochoa, Maria Judith. Universidad Nacional de Santiago del Estero. Facultad de Agronomía y Agroindustrias; ArgentinaFil: González Flores, L. M.. Instituto Tecnológico de Tlajomulco; MéxicoFil: Cruz Rubio, J. M.. Instituto Tecnológico de Tlajomulco; MéxicoFil: Rivera López, L. A.. Instituto Tecnológico de Tlajomulco; MéxicoFil: Rodriguez, Sergio A.. Universidad Nacional de Santiago del Estero; ArgentinaFil: Nazareno, Mónica Azucena. Universidad Nacional de Santiago del Estero; Argentina. Universidad Nacional de Santiago del Estero. Facultad de Agronomía y Agroindustrias; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Tucumán; ArgentinaFil: Gómez Leyva, J. F.. Instituto Tecnológico de Tlajomulco; Méxic

The three-dimensional Anderson model of localization with binary random potential

We study the three-dimensional two-band Anderson model of localization and compare our results to experimental results for amorphous metallic alloys (AMA). Using the transfer-matrix method, we identify and characterize the metal-insulator transitions as functions of Fermi level position, band broadening due to disorder and concentration of alloy composition. The appropriate phase diagrams of regions of extended and localized electronic states are studied and qualitative agreement with AMA such as Ti-Ni and Ti-Cu metallic glasses is found. We estimate the critical exponents nu_W, nu_E and nu_x when either disorder W, energy E or concentration x is varied, respectively. All our results are compatible with the universal value nu ~ 1.6 obtained in the single-band Anderson model.Comment: 9 RevTeX4 pages with 11 .eps figures included, submitted to PR

Exact solutions to chaotic and stochastic systems

We investigate functions that are exact solutions to chaotic dynamical systems. A generalization of these functions can produce truly random numbers. For the first time, we present solutions to random maps. This allows us to check, analytically, some recent results about the complexity of random dynamical systems. We confirm the result that a negative Lyapunov exponent does not imply predictability in random systems. We test the effectiveness of forecasting methods in distinguishing between chaotic and random time-series. Using the explicit random functions, we can give explicit analytical formulas for the output signal in some systems with stochastic resonance. We study the influence of chaos on the stochastic resonance. We show, theoretically, the existence of a new type of solitonic stochastic resonance, where the shape of the kink is crucial. Using our models we can predict specific patterns in the output signal of stochastic resonance systems.Comment: 31 pages, 18 figures (.eps). To appear in Chaos, March 200