Making Progress in Forecasting

Twenty-five years ago, the International Institute of Forecasters was established “to bridge the gap between theory and practice.” Its primary vehicle was the Journal of Forecasting and is now the International Journal of Forecasting. The Institute emphasizes empirical comparisons of reasonable forecasting approaches. Such studies can be used to identify the best forecasting procedures to use under given conditions, a process we call evidence-based forecasting. Unfortunately, evidence-based forecasting meets resistance from academics and practitioners when the findings differ from currently accepted beliefs. As a consequence, although much progress has been made in developing improved forecasting methods, the diffusion of useful forecasting methods has been disappointing. To bridge the gap between theory and practice, we recommend a stronger emphasis on the method of multiple hypotheses and on invited replications of important research. It is then necessary to translate the findings into principles that are easy to understand and apply. The Internet and software provide important opportunities for making the latest findings available to researchers and practitioners. Because researchers and practitioners believe that their areas are unique, we should organize findings so that they are relevant to each area and make them easily available when people search for information about forecasting in their area. Organisational barriers to change still remain to be overcome. Research into the specific issues faced when forecasting remains a priority

Analysis of judgmental adjustments in the presence of promotions

Sales forecasting is increasingly complex due to many factors, such as product life cycles that have become shorter, more competitive markets and aggressive marketing. Often, forecasts are produced using a Forecasting Support System that integrates univariate statistical forecasts with judgment from experts in the organization. Managers add information to the forecast, like future promotions, potentially improving accuracy. Despite the importance of judgment and promotions, the literature devoted to study their relationship on forecasting performance is scarce. We analyze managerial adjustments accuracy under periods of promotions, based on weekly data from a manufacturing company. Intervention analysis is used to establish whether judgmental adjustments can be replaced by multivariate statistical models when responding to promotional information. We show that judgmental adjustments can enhance baseline forecasts during promotions, but not systematically. Transfer function models based on past promotions information achieved lower overall forecasting errors. Finally, a hybrid model illustrates the fact that human experts still added value to the transfer function models

Hispanic Ethnicity, Male Gender and Age Predict Restraint Use and Hospital Resource Utilization in Pediatric Trauma

Child restraint reduces the severity of injuries in motor vehicle crashes. Racial/ethnic groups appear to have differing restraint use rates. The objective of this study was to identify restraint use differences between ethnic and other demographic subgroups of pediatric trauma patients. Prospective data were analyzed for 1072 consecutive pediatric patients aged 19 or less who were involved in motor vehicle crashes and brought to our Trauma Center over a 42 month period. The demographic breakdown of this study cohort was 55.3% male, 21.4% Hispanic, 9.7% African American, 64.5% Caucasian, 2.2% Asian and 2.2% other. The highest rates of restraint use (56.1%) were reported for children ages 0 to 3 years, and the lowest for those 12-15 years (p=.0001). Restraint use rates were lower among males than females (OR=0.72; 95% CI = 0.55, 0.93), and lower among Hispanic than non-Hispanic pediatric patients (OR=0.52; 95% CI = 0.37, 073). Restrained patients were more likely than unrestrained patients to be discharged to home. Restrained patients were less severely injured than unrestrained patients as measured by Revised Trauma Score, the Glasgow Coma Score, Injury Severity Score, ICU days and length of hospital stay. Low restraint use is associated with Hispanic ethnicity, male gender and the age group 12-15 years. Measures of injury severity consistently indicate more severe injuries among unrestrained than restrained patients

Selective Use of Pericardial Window and Drainage as Sole Treatment for Hemopericardium from Penetrating Chest Trauma

Background Penetrating cardiac injuries (PCIs) are highly lethal, and a sternotomy is considered mandatory for suspected PCI. Recent literature suggests pericardial window (PCW) may be sufficient for superficial cardiac injuries to drain hemopericardium and assess for continued bleeding and instability. This study objective is to review patients with PCI managed with sternotomy and PCW and compare outcomes. Methods All patients with penetrating chest trauma from 2000 to 2016 requiring PCW or sternotomy were reviewed. Data were collected for patients who had PCW for hemopericardium managed with only pericardial drain, or underwent sternotomy for cardiac injuries grade 1–3 according to the American Association for the Surgery of Trauma (AAST) Cardiac Organ Injury Scale (OIS). The PCW+drain group was compared with the Sternotomy group using Fisher’s exact and Wilcoxon rank-sum test with P\u3c0.05 considered statistically significant. Results Sternotomy was performed in 57 patients for suspected PCI, including 7 with AAST OIS grade 1–3 injuries (Sternotomy group). Four patients had pericardial injuries, three had partial thickness cardiac injuries, two of which were suture-repaired. Average blood drained was 285mL (100–500 mL). PCW was performed in 37 patients, and 21 had hemopericardium; 16 patients proceeded to sternotomy and 5 were treated with pericardial drainage (PCW+drain group). All PCW+drain patients had suction evacuation of hemopericardium, pericardial lavage, and verified bleeding cessation, followed by pericardial drain placement and admission to intensive care unit (ICU). Average blood drained was 240mL (40–600 mL), and pericardial drains were removed on postoperative day 3.6 (2–5). There was no significant difference in demographics, injury mechanism, Revised Trauma Score exploratory laparotomies, hospital or ICU length of stay, or ventilator days. No in-hospital mortality occurred in either group. Conclusions Hemodynamically stable patients with penetrating chest trauma and hemopericardium may be safely managed with PCW, lavage and drainage with documented cessation of bleeding, and postoperative ICU monitoring. Level of evidence Therapeutic study, level IV

Non-Linear Identification of Judgmental Forecasts Effects at SKU-Level

Prediction of demand is a key component within supply chain management. Im- proved accuracy in forecasts affects directly all levels of the supply chain, reduc- ing stock costs and increasing customer satisfaction. In many application areas, demand prediction relies on statistical software which provides an initial forecast subsequently modified by the expert’s judgment. This paper outlines a new method- ology based on State Dependent Parameter (SDP) estimation techniques to identify the non-linear behaviour of such managerial adjustments. This non-parametric SDP estimate is used as a guideline to propose a non-linear model that corrects the bias introduced by the managerial adjustments. One-step-ahead forecasts of SKU sales sampled monthly from a manufacturing company are utilized to test the proposed methodology. The results indicate that adjustments introduce a non-linear pattern undermining accuracy. This understanding can be used to enhance the design of the Forecasting Support System in order to help forecasters towards more efficient judgmental adjustments

Publishing Standards for Research on Forecasting (editorial)

When we first began publication of the International Journal of Forecasting, we reviewed policies that were used by other journals and also examined the research on scientific publishing. Our findings were translated into a referee\u27s rating form that was published in the journal [Armstrong (1982a)]. These guidelines were favorably received. Most referees used the Referee\u27s Rating Sheet (Exhibit 1 provides an updated version)and some of them wrote to tell us that they found it helpful in communicating the aims and criteria of the journal

Parental control over feeding in infancy. Influence of infant weight, appetite and feeding method

Background and objective: Parental control over feeding has been linked to child overweight. Parental control behaviours have been assumed to be exogenous to the child, but emerging evidence suggests they are also child-responsive. This study tests the hypothesis that parental control in early infancy is responsive to infant appetite and weight. Subjects and methods: Participants were 1920 mothers from the Gemini twin cohort, using one randomly selected child per family. Data come from questionnaires completed when the children were approximately 8 months. Mothers completed measures of ‘pressure’ and ‘restriction’, reported feeding method (breast- and bottle feeding), rated their infant's appetite during the first 3 months, provided health professional recorded weight measurements, and reported their concerns about their infant's weight. Logistic regression examined predictors of ‘pressure’ and ‘restriction’, adjusting for maternal demographics and BMI. Interactions between feeding method and control were also tested. Results: ‘Pressure’ was associated with lower birth weight (OR = 0.79, 95% CI: 0.65–0.97), greater concern about underweight (OR = 1.88, 1.29–2.75), and lower infant appetite (OR = 0.59, 0.47–0.75). ‘Restriction’ was associated with higher appetite (OR = 1.44, 1.09–1.89) and bottle feeding (OR = 2.86, 2.18–3.75). A significant interaction with feeding method indicated that infants with high appetites were more likely to be restricted only if they were bottle-fed (OR = 1.52, 1.13–2.04). Conclusion: Mothers vary in their levels of control over milk-feeding and this is partly responsive to the infant's characteristics. They tend to pressure infants who are lighter and have a smaller appetite, and restrict infants with larger appetites if they are bottle-fed. Guidance on infant feeding may be better received if it acknowledges that parents respond to infant characteristics in order to achieve their feeding goals

Appetitive traits and relationships with BMI in adults: Development of the Adult Eating Behaviour Questionnaire

The Child Eating Behaviour Questionnaire (CEBQ) is a validated parent-report measure of appetitive traits associated with weight in childhood. There is currently no matched measure for use in adults. The aim of this study was to adapt the CEBQ into a self-report Adult Eating Behaviour Questionnaire (AEBQ) to explore whether the associations between appetitive traits and BMI observed in children are present in adults. Two adult samples were recruited one year apart from an online survey panel in 2013 (n = 708) and 2014 (n = 954). Both samples completed the AEBQ and self-reported their weight and height. Principal component analysis (PCA) was used to derive 35 items for the AEBQ in Sample 1 and confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) was used to replicate the factor structure in Sample 2. Reliability of the AEBQ was assessed using Cronbach’s α and a two week test-retest in a sub-sample of 93 participants. Correlations between appetitive traits measured by the AEBQ and BMI were calculated. PCA and CFA results showed the AEBQ to be a reliable questionnaire (Cronbach’s α > 0.70) measuring 8 appetitive traits similar to the CEBQ [Hunger (H), Food Responsiveness (FR), Emotional Over-Eating (EOE), Enjoyment of Food (EF), Satiety Responsiveness (SR), Emotional Under-eating (EUE), Food Fussiness (FF) and Slowness in Eating (SE)]. Associations with BMI showed FR, EF (p < 0.05) and EOE (p < 0.01) were positively associated and SR, EUE and SE (p < 0.01) were negatively associated. Overall, the AEBQ appears to be a reliable measure of appetitive traits in adults which translates well from the validated child measure. Adults with a higher BMI had higher scores for ‘food approach’ traits (FR, EOE and EF) and lower scores for ‘food avoidance’ traits (SR, EUE and SE)

Emerging Disparities among Self-Pay Trauma Patients

Preliminary results from a study of trauma patients in Southern Nevada are yielding some unexpected findings with implications for both trauma centers and the growing Hispanic population. Hispanic patients are more likely to be self pay irrespective of income level and employment status when compared to non-Hispanic patient groups. Further, self pay Hispanics, unlike their non-Hispanic, self pay counterparts, tend to be employed, have families, and report stable living conditions. The implication is that the financial and social cost of traumatic injury may place a significant burden on trauma centers, patients, their families and the community