First order resonance overlap and the stability of close two planet systems

Motivated by the population of multi-planet systems with orbital period ratios 1<P2/P1<2, we study the long-term stability of packed two planet systems. The Hamiltonian for two massive planets on nearly circular and nearly coplanar orbits near a first order mean motion resonance can be reduced to a one degree of freedom problem (Sessin & Ferraz Mello (1984), Wisdom (1986), Henrard et al. (1986)). Using this analytically tractable Hamiltonian, we apply the resonance overlap criterion to predict the onset of large scale chaotic motion in close two planet systems. The reduced Hamiltonian has only a weak dependence on the planetary mass ratio, and hence the overlap criterion is independent of the planetary mass ratio at lowest order. Numerical integrations confirm that the planetary mass ratio has little effect on the structure of the chaotic phase space for close orbits in the low eccentricity (e <~0.1) regime. We show numerically that orbits in the chaotic web produced primarily by first order resonance overlap eventually experience large scale erratic variation in semimajor axes and are Lagrange unstable. This is also true of the orbits in this overlap region which are Hill stable. As a result, we can use the first order resonance overlap criterion as an effective stability criterion for pairs of observed planets. We show that for low mass (<~10 M_Earth) planetary systems with initially circular orbits the period ratio at which complete overlap occurs and widespread chaos results lies in a region of parameter space which is Hill stable. Our work indicates that a resonance overlap criterion which would apply for initially eccentric orbits needs to take into account second order resonances. Finally, we address the connection found in previous work between the Hill stability criterion and numerically determined Lagrange instability boundaries in the context of resonance overlap.Comment: Accepted for publication in Ap

Competing Alignments of Nematic Liquid Crystals on Square Patterned Substrates

A theoretical analysis is presented of a nematic liquid crystal confined between substrates pat- terned with squares that promote vertical and planar alignment. Two approaches are used to eluci- date the behavior across a wide range of length scales: Monte Carlo simulation of hard particles and Frank-Oseen continuum theory. Both approaches predict bistable degenerate azimuthal alignment in the bulk along the edges of the squares; the continuum calculation additionally reveals the possi- bility of an anchoring transition to diagonal alignment if the polar anchoring energy associated with the pattern is sufficiently weak. Unlike the striped systems previously analyzed, the Monte Carlo simulations suggest that there is no "bridging" transition for sufficiently thin cells. The extent to which these geometrically patterned systems resemble topographically patterned substrates, such as square wells, is also discussed.Comment: 11 pages, 12 figure

Stability of Satellites in Closely Packed Planetary Systems

We perform numerical integrations of four-body (star, planet, planet, satellite) systems to investigate the stability of satellites in planetary Systems with Tightly-packed Inner Planets (STIPs). We find that the majority of closely-spaced stable two-planet systems can stably support satellites across a range of parameter-space which is only slightly decreased compared to that seen for the single-planet case. In particular, circular prograde satellites remain stable out to $\sim 0.4 R_H$ (where $R_H$ is the Hill Radius) as opposed to $\sim 0.5 R_H$ in the single-planet case. A similarly small restriction in the stable parameter-space for retrograde satellites is observed, where planetary close approaches in the range 2.5 to 4.5 mutual Hill radii destabilize most satellites orbits only if $a\sim 0.65 R_H$. In very close planetary pairs (e.g. the 12:11 resonance) the addition of a satellite frequently destabilizes the entire system, causing extreme close-approaches and the loss of satellites over a range of circumplanetary semi-major axes. The majority of systems investigated stably harbored satellites over a wide parameter-space, suggesting that STIPs can generally offer a dynamically stable home for satellites, albeit with a slightly smaller stable parameter-space than the single-planet case. As we demonstrate that multi-planet systems are not a priori poor candidates for hosting satellites, future measurements of satellite occurrence rates in multi-planet systems versus single-planet systems could be used to constrain either satellite formation or past periods of strong dynamical interaction between planets.Comment: 11 pages, 5 figures. Accepted for publication, ApJ

Ice core records of atmospheric CO2 around the last three glacial terminations

Air trapped in bubbles in polar ice cores constitutes an archive for the reconstruction of the global carbon cycle and the relation between greenhouse gases and climate in the past. High-resolution records from Antarctic ice cores show that carbon dioxide concentrations increased by 80 to 100 parts per million by volume 600 ± 400 years after the warming of the last three deglaciations. Despite strongly decreasing temperatures, high carbon dioxide concentrations can be sustained for thousands of years during glaciations; the size of this phase lag is probably connected to the duration of the preceding warm period, which controls the change in land ice coverage and the buildup of the terrestrial biosphere.</jats:p

TTVFast: An efficient and accurate code for transit timing inversion problems

Transit timing variations (TTVs) have proven to be a powerful technique for confirming Kepler planet candidates, for detecting non-transiting planets, and for constraining the masses and orbital elements of multi-planet systems. These TTV applications often require the numerical integration of orbits for computation of transit times (as well as impact parameters and durations); frequently tens of millions to billions of simulations are required when running statistical analyses of the planetary system properties. We have created a fast code for transit timing computation, TTVFast, which uses a symplectic integrator with a Keplerian interpolator for the calculation of transit times (Nesvorny et al. 2013). The speed comes at the expense of accuracy in the calculated times, but the accuracy lost is largely unnecessary, as transit times do not need to be calculated to accuracies significantly smaller than the measurement uncertainties on the times. The time step can be tuned to give sufficient precision for any particular system. We find a speed-up of at least an order of magnitude relative to dynamical integrations with high precision using a Bulirsch-Stoer integrator.Comment: Submitted to ApJ. Our code is available in both C and Fortran at: http://github.com/kdeck/TTVFast . If you download this version, please check back after the referee process for a possibly updated versio

Keeping a Clean Reputation: More Evidence on the Perverse Effects of Disclosure

When a principal relies on an agent, a conflict of interest can encourage the agent to provide biased advice. Conventional wisdom suggests that such behavior can be reduced through disclosure requirements. However, disclosure has been shown to exacerbate self-serving bias and can actually lead to greater harm for the principal in one-shot interactions. But in many naturally occurring settings, agents form reputations, a mechanism that could diminish the incentive to provide biased advice. We test for bias in the advice agents provide when faced with reputation concerns, and examine the impact of disclosure in such an environment. In controlled laboratory experiments, we find little evidence of self-serving bias in the absence of disclosure when (3) agents form reputations and (4) principals use that information in selecting agents. However, we find the introduction of disclosure leads to self-serving biased advice that is difficult for principals to detect. When the conflict of interest is endogenous, we find that agents overwhelmingly put themselves in the position of having a conflict of interest, but principals neither avoid conflicted agents nor differentially discount the advice such agents provide

Auction Markets for Evaluations

When the value of a product or service is uncertain, outcomes can be inefficient. A market for evaluations can theoretically increase efficiency by voluntarily eliciting an evaluation that would otherwise not be provided. This paper uses a controlled laboratory experiment to test the performance of four market mechanisms to provide product evaluations. The mechanisms considered are derived from the oft studied uniform price sealed bid, discriminatory price sealed bid, English clock auction, and Dutch clock auction. Our results indicate for this nonrivalrous product that (i) each of these institutions improves social welfare and (ii) the performances of the four mechanisms are equivalent. This second point is particularly noteworthy given that differing behavior is routinely observed in traditional private value auctions

Experimental Gasoline Markets

Zone pricing in wholesale gasoline markets is a contentious topic in the public policy debate. With a controlled laboratory experiment, we investigate the competitive effects of zone pricing on consumers, retail stations, and refiners vis-à-vis the proposed policy prescription of uniform wholesale pricing to retailers. We also examine the issue of divorcement and the “rockets and feathers” phenomenon. The former is the legal restriction that refiners and retailers cannot be vertically integrated, and the latter is the perception that retail gasoline prices rise faster than they fall in response to random walk movements in the world price for oil

Triple-Star Candidates Among the Kepler Binaries

We present the results of a search through the photometric database of eclipsing Kepler binaries (Prsa et al. 2011; Slawson et al. 2011) looking for evidence of hierarchical triple star systems. The presence of a third star orbiting the binary can be inferred from eclipse timing variations. We apply a simple algorithm in an automated determination of the eclipse times for all 2157 binaries. The "calculated" eclipse times, based on a constant period model, are subtracted from those observed. The resulting O-C (observed minus calculated times) curves are then visually inspected for periodicities in order to find triple-star candidates. After eliminating false positives due to the beat frequency between the ~1/2-hour Kepler cadence and the binary period, 39 candidate triple systems were identified. The periodic O-C curves for these candidates were then fit for contributions from both the classical Roemer delay and so-called "physical" delay, in an attempt to extract a number of the system parameters of the triple. We discuss the limitations of the information that can be inferred from these O-C curves without further supplemental input, e.g., ground-based spectroscopy. Based on the limited range of orbital periods for the triple star systems to which this search is sensitive, we can extrapolate to estimate that at least 20% of all close binaries have tertiary companions.Comment: 19 pages, 13 figures, 3 tables; ApJ, 2013, 768, 33; corrected Fig. 7, updated references, minor fixes to tex