Mortality, greenhouse gas emissions and consumer cost impacts of combined diet and physical activity scenarios: a health impact assessment study

$\textbf{Objective:}$ To quantify changes in mortality, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and consumer costs for physical activity and diet scenarios. $\textbf{Design:}$ For the physical activity scenarios, all car trips from <1 to <8 miles long were progressively replaced with cycling. For the diet scenarios, the study population was assumed to increase fruit and vegetable (F&V) consumption by 1–5 portions of F&V per day, or to eat at least 5 portions per day. Health effects were modelled with the comparative risk assessment method. Consumer costs were based on fuel cost savings and average costs of F&V, and GHG emissions to fuel usage and F&V production. $\textbf{Setting:}$ Working age population for England. $\textbf{Participants:}$ Data from the Health Survey for England, National Travel Survey and National Diet and Nutrition Survey. $\textbf{Primary outcomes measured:}$ Changes in premature deaths, consumer costs and GHG emissions stratified by age, gender and socioeconomic status (SES). $\textbf{Results:}$ Premature deaths were reduced by between 75 and 7648 cases per year for the physical activity scenarios, and 3255 and 6187 cases per year for the diet scenarios. Mortality reductions were greater among people of medium and high SES in the physical activity scenarios, whereas people with lower SES benefited more in the diet scenarios. Similarly, transport fuel costs fell more for people of high SES, whereas diet costs increased most for the lowest SES group. Net GHG emissions decreased by between 0.2 and 10.6 million tons of carbon dioxide equivalent (MtCO$_2$e) per year for the physical activity scenarios and increased by between 1.3 and 6.3 MtCO$_2$e/year for the diet scenarios. $\textbf{Conclusions:}$ Increasing F&V consumption offers the potential for large health benefits and reduces health inequalities. Replacing short car trips with cycling offers the potential for net benefits for health, GHG emissions and consumer costs.MT, PM, NJ and JW were supported by the Centre for Diet and Activity Research (CEDAR), a UKCRC Public Health Research Centre of Excellence. Funding from the British Heart Foundation, Cancer Research UK, Economic and Social Research Council, Medical Research Council, the National Institute for Health Research, and the Wellcome Trust, under the auspices of the UK Clinical Research Collaboration, is gratefully acknowledged. JW is also supported by an MRC Population Health Scientist fellowship (grant number: MR/K021796/1). CB is supported by the UK Research Councils (grant number: EPSRC EP/L024756/1) as part of the Decision Making Theme of the UK Energy Research Centre Phase 3

Time Scales for transitions between free energy minima of a hard sphere system

Time scales associated with activated transitions between glassy metastable states of a free energy functional appropriate for a dense hard sphere system are calculated by using a new Monte Carlo method for the local density variables. We calculate the time the system,initially placed in a shallow glassy minimum of the free energy, spends in the neighborhood of this minimum before making a transition to the basin of attarction of another free energy minimum. This time scale is found to increase with the average density. We find a crossover density near which this time scale increases very sharply and becomes longer than the longest times accessible in our simulation. This scale shows no evidence of dependence on sample size.Comment: 25 pages, Revtex, 6 postscript figures. Will appear in Phys Rev E, March 1996 or s

Entropic Origin of the Growth of Relaxation Times in Simple Glassy Liquids

Transitions between ``glassy'' local minima of a model free-energy functional for a dense hard-sphere system are studied numerically using a ``microcanonical'' Monte Carlo method that enables us to obtain the transition probability as a function of the free energy and the Monte Carlo ``time''. The growth of the height of the effective free energy barrier with density is found to be consistent with a Vogel-Fulcher law. The dependence of the transition probability on time indicates that this growth is primarily due to entropic effects arising from the difficulty of finding low-free-energy saddle points connecting glassy minima.Comment: Four pages, plus three postscript figure

Fast Monte Carlo Simulation for Patient-specific CT/CBCT Imaging Dose Calculation

Recently, X-ray imaging dose from computed tomography (CT) or cone beam CT (CBCT) scans has become a serious concern. Patient-specific imaging dose calculation has been proposed for the purpose of dose management. While Monte Carlo (MC) dose calculation can be quite accurate for this purpose, it suffers from low computational efficiency. In response to this problem, we have successfully developed a MC dose calculation package, gCTD, on GPU architecture under the NVIDIA CUDA platform for fast and accurate estimation of the x-ray imaging dose received by a patient during a CT or CBCT scan. Techniques have been developed particularly for the GPU architecture to achieve high computational efficiency. Dose calculations using CBCT scanning geometry in a homogeneous water phantom and a heterogeneous Zubal head phantom have shown good agreement between gCTD and EGSnrc, indicating the accuracy of our code. In terms of improved efficiency, it is found that gCTD attains a speed-up of ~400 times in the homogeneous water phantom and ~76.6 times in the Zubal phantom compared to EGSnrc. As for absolute computation time, imaging dose calculation for the Zubal phantom can be accomplished in ~17 sec with the average relative standard deviation of 0.4%. Though our gCTD code has been developed and tested in the context of CBCT scans, with simple modification of geometry it can be used for assessing imaging dose in CT scans as well.Comment: 18 pages, 7 figures, and 1 tabl

Associations of wheezing phenotypes in the first 6 years of life with atopy, lung function and airway responsiveness in mid-childhood

&lt;p&gt;Background: Patterns of wheezing during early childhood may indicate differences in aetiology and prognosis of respiratory illnesses. Improved characterisation of wheezing phenotypes could lead to the identification of environmental influences on the development of asthma and airway diseases in predisposed individuals.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;Methods: Data collected on wheezing at seven time points from birth to 7 years from 6265 children in a longitudinal birth cohort (the ALSPAC study) were analysed. Latent class analysis was used to assign phenotypes based on patterns of wheezing. Measures of atopy, airway function (forced expiratory volume in 1 s (FEV1), mid forced expiratory flow (FEF25-75)) and bronchial responsiveness were made at 7–9 years of age.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;Results: Six phenotypes were identified. The strongest associations with atopy and airway responsiveness were found for intermediate onset (18 months) wheezing (OR for atopy 8.36, 95% CI 5.2 to 13.4; mean difference in dose response to methacholine 1.76, 95% CI 1.41 to 2.12 %FEV1 per μmol, compared with infrequent/never wheeze phenotype). Late onset wheezing (after 42 months) was also associated with atopy (OR 6.6, 95% CI 4.7 to 9.4) and airway responsiveness (mean difference 1.61, 95% CI 1.37 to 1.85 %FEV1 per μmol). Transient and prolonged early wheeze were not associated with atopy but were weakly associated with increased airway responsiveness and persistent wheeze had intermediate associations with these outcomes.&lt;/p&gt; &lt;p&gt;Conclusions: The wheezing phenotypes most strongly associated with atopy and airway responsiveness were characterised by onset after age 18 months. This has potential implications for the timing of environmental influences on the initiation of atopic wheezing in early childhood.&lt;/p&gt

Nonlinear Hydrodynamics of a Hard Sphere Fluid Near the Glass Transition

We conduct a numerical study of the dynamic behavior of a dense hard sphere fluid by deriving and integrating a set of Langevin equations. The statics of the system is described by a free energy functional of the Ramakrishnan-Yussouff form. We find that the system exhibits glassy behavior as evidenced through stretched exponential decay and two-stage relaxation of the density correlation function. The characteristic times grow with increasing density according to the Vogel-Fulcher law. The wavenumber dependence of the kinetics is extensively explored. The connection of our results with experiment, mode coupling theory, and molecular dynamics results is discussed.Comment: 34 Pages, Plain TeX, 12 PostScript Figures (not included, available on request

“It’s my dream to work with Olympic athletes”: Neophyte sport psychologists’ expectations and initial experiences regarding service delivery

We examined trainee practitioners' initial experiences of applied sport psychology practice. Semi-structured interviews (4) were conducted over 6 months with 7 full-time MSc students before, during, and after the applied sport psychology module, when they were working with clients. Participants also kept reflective diaries over an 8-week period whilst working with clients. Findings included: (a) motivations and expectations of an ASP practice career, (b) perceptions of service delivery, (c) emotional demands, and (d) pivotal experiences. Findings extend previous literature on the initial stages of practitioner development, providing micro-level detail on aspects of the intense development process during this pivotal perio

Pointfree factorization of operation refinement

The standard operation refinement ordering is a kind of “meet of op- posites”: non-determinism reduction suggests “smaller” behaviour while increase of definition suggests “larger” behaviour. Groves’ factorization of this ordering into two simpler relations, one per refinement concern, makes it more mathe- matically tractable but is far from fully exploited in the literature. We present a pointfree theory for this factorization which is more agile and calculational than the standard set-theoretic approach. In particular, we show that factorization leads to a simple proof of structural refinement for arbitrary parametric types and ex- ploit factor instantiation across different subclasses of (relational) operation. The prospect of generalizing the factorization to coalgebraic refinement is discussedFundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia (FCT) - PURE Project (Program Understanding and Re-engineering: Calculi and Applications), contract POSI/ICHS/44304/2002

Error threshold in finite populations

A simple analytical framework to study the molecular quasispecies evolution of finite populations is proposed, in which the population is assumed to be a random combination of the constiyuent molecules in each generation,i.e., linkage disequilibrium at the population level is neglected. In particular, for the single-sharp-peak replication landscape we investigate the dependence of the error threshold on the population size and find that the replication accuracy at threshold increases linearly with the reciprocal of the population size for sufficiently large populations. Furthermore, in the deterministic limit our formulation yields the exact steady-state of the quasispecies model, indicating then the population composition is a random combination of the molecules.Comment: 14 pages and 4 figure

Caledonian foreland basin sedimentation : A new depositional model for the Upper Silurian-Lower Devonian Lower Old Red Sandstone of the Midland Valley Basin, Scotland

Open Access via Wiley publishing agreement. We thank Stuart Archer, Brian Hampton and the anonymous reviewer for their thoughtful and constructive reviews of this manuscript, which has benefited greatly from their attention. We also thank the Associate Editors at Basin Research for their time, advice and suggestions during the submission process. DATA AVAILABILITY STATEMENT The data that support the findings of this study are available from the corresponding author upon reasonable request.Peer reviewedPublisher PD