How Do Workers Fare During Transition? Perceptions of Job Insecurity among Russian Workers, 1995-2004

Labor market conditions deteriorated substantially in the1990s during Russia’s transition from plan to market, generating pervasive and prolonged economic insecurity. Our objective is to document perceptions of job insecurity among Russian workers over the course of the transition period and evaluate whether these perceptions are consistent with actual economic outcomes. We use RLMS data to examine perceptions of job insecurity among Russian workers between 1995 and 1998, when economic conditions were relatively chaotic, and between 2000 and 2004, when economic conditions had stabilized. We employ two measures to assess worker perceptions of job insecurity: one reflects workers’ concerns about job loss, and the second evaluates their concern about ability to find employment in case of a lay-off. Our descriptive analysis focuses on workers who perceived their job situation as insecure during this period, categorizing workers based on their socio-demographic characteristics, job characteristics and region of residence. Using ordered probit analysis, we study conditional distributions of our measures of perceived job insecurity, and how those varied by worker characteristics, current economic conditions, and over time. Similar to studies conducted in developed market economies, we find that perceptions of job security are higher among workers with more education, among workers with status positions (supervisory responsibilities), and among workers who live in locales that are not adversely affected by economic conditions. Unlike these studies, however, we find that perceptions differ between men and women; age is negatively, rather than positively, correlated with confidence in keeping one’s current job; and longer job tenure does not improve perceptions of job security. We find that worker perceptions are largely consistent with actual labor market conditions. Specifically, perceptions of job security were very low in years of major economic change and uncertainty (1995-1998), but improved during the years of relative economic stability (2000-2004). In both periods, workers with relatively weak positions in the labor market tended to have lower perceptions of job insecurity.http://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/57251/1/wp871 .pd

Gender Differences in Personality and Earnings: Evidence from Russia

Does personality affect earnings? If so, are there gender differences in personality that explain part of the gender wage gap? We use survey data collected from over 2,600 Russian employees between 2000 and 2003 to evaluate the impact on earnings of two personality traits: locus of control (Rotter 1966) and challenge-affiliation (Hill et al. 1985). We find that gender differences in personality traits are significant. Men are more likely to exhibit an internal locus of control and need for challenge, while women are more likely to exhibit an external locus of control and need for affiliation. Moreover, there are differences in the effect of personality on earnings by gender – women’s earnings are affected by personality, while men’s earnings are not. Among participating employees in our study, the “unexplained” portion of the gender wage gap falls by as much as 12% when personality traits are included.http://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/40177/3/wp791.pd

Learning to Predict with Highly Granular Temporal Data: Estimating individual behavioral profiles with smart meter data

Big spatio-temporal datasets, available through both open and administrative data sources, offer significant potential for social science research. The magnitude of the data allows for increased resolution and analysis at individual level. While there are recent advances in forecasting techniques for highly granular temporal data, little attention is given to segmenting the time series and finding homogeneous patterns. In this paper, it is proposed to estimate behavioral profiles of individuals' activities over time using Gaussian Process-based models. In particular, the aim is to investigate how individuals or groups may be clustered according to the model parameters. Such a Bayesian non-parametric method is then tested by looking at the predictability of the segments using a combination of models to fit different parts of the temporal profiles. Model validity is then tested on a set of holdout data. The dataset consists of half hourly energy consumption records from smart meters from more than 100,000 households in the UK and covers the period from 2015 to 2016. The methodological approach developed in the paper may be easily applied to datasets of similar structure and granularity, for example social media data, and may lead to improved accuracy in the prediction of social dynamics and behavior

Attitudes and Performance: An Analysis of Russian Workers

This paper investigates the relationship between locus of control and performance among Russian employees, using survey data collected at 28 workplaces in 2002 in Taganrog and at 47 workplaces in 2003 in Ekaterinburg. We develop a measure that allows us to categorize the Russian employees participating in our survey as exhibiting an internal or external locus of control. We then assess the extent to which there are significant differences between “internals” and “externals” in work-related attitudes that may affect performance. In particular, we focus on (1) attitudes about outcomes associated with hard work, (2) level of job satisfaction, (3) expectation of receiving a desired reward, and (4) loyalty to and involvement with one’s organization. In each case we identify where gender and generational differences emerge. Our main objective is to determine whether Russian employees who exhibit an internal locus of control perform better than employees with an external locus of control. Our performance measures include earnings, expected promotions, and assessments of the quantity and quality of work in comparison to others at the same organization doing a similar job. Controlling for a variety of worker characteristics, we find that (1) individuals who exhibit an internal locus of control perform better, but this result is not always statistically significant; (2) even among “internals,” women earn significantly less than men and have a much lower expectation of promotion; (3) even among “internals,” experience with unemployment has a negative influence on performance.locus of control, Russia, motivation, performance, gender

Perceptions and Behavior: Analyzing Wage Arrears in Russia

We investigate the link between perceptions and behavior using the wage arrears phenomenon in Russia as our case study. To measure perception, we utilize assessments of ‘marketability’ -- what we call perceived demand. For behavior, we first consider the behavior of managers in the allocation of wage arrears, and second, the response by workers to wage arrears. Using Russian Longitudinal Monitoring Survey data collected between 1994 and 2004 and controlling for regional macroeconomic conditions, firm characteristics and worker characteristics in the probit and Poisson regressions, we find that managers avoid allocating wage arrears to workers with high perceived demand. We argue that this happens because workers with high perceived demand tend to have more employment options and consequently are more likely to quit their jobs. Managers try to retain these workers by reducing their wage arrears. Our empirical results support this argument, as we find that job change is reduced by lowering arrears.http://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/57249/1/wp869 .pd

Women's position and attitudes towards female genital mutilation in Egypt : a secondary analysis of the Egypt demographic and health surveys, 1995-2014

Background: Female genital mutilation (FGM) is still widespread in Egyptian society. It is strongly entrenched in local tradition and culture and has a strong link to the position of women. To eradicate the practice a major attitudinal change is a required for which an improvement in the social position of women is a prerequisite. This study examines the relationship between Egyptian women's social positions and their attitudes towards FGM, and investigates whether the spread of anti-FGM attitudes is related to the observed improvements in the position of women over time. Methods: Changes in attitudes towards FGM are tracked using data from the Egypt Demographic and Health Surveys from 1995 to 2014. Multilevel logistic regressions are used to estimate 1) the effects of indicators of a woman's social position on her attitude towards FGM, and 2) whether these effects change over time. Results: Literate, better educated and employed women are more likely to oppose FGM. Initially growing opposition to FGM was related to the expansion of women's education, but lately opposition to FGM also seems to have spread to other segments of Egyptian society. Conclusions: The improvement of women's social position has certainly contributed to the spread of anti-FGM attitudes in Egyptian society. Better educated and less traditional women were at the heart of this change, and formed the basis from where anti-FGM sentiment has spread over wider segments of Egyptian society

Perceptions and Behavior: Analyzing Wage Arrears in Russia

We investigate the link between perceptions and behavior using the wage arrears phenomenon in Russia as our case study. To measure perception, we utilize assessments of ‘marketability’ – what we call perceived demand. For behavior, we first consider the behavior of managers in the allocation of wage arrears, and second, the response by workers to wage arrears. Using Russian Longitudinal Monitoring Survey data collected between 1994 and 2004 and controlling for regional macroeconomic conditions, firm characteristics and worker characteristics in the probit and Poisson regressions, we find that managers avoid allocating wage arrears to workers with high perceived demand. We argue that this happens because workers with high perceived demand tend to have more employment options and consequently are more likely to quit their jobs. Managers try to retain these workers by reducing their wage arrears. Our empirical results support this argument, as we find that job change is reduced by lowering arrears.perceived demand, wage arrears, perceptions, behavior, Russia

Partial differential systems with nonlocal nonlinearities: Generation and solutions

We develop a method for generating solutions to large classes of evolutionary partial differential systems with nonlocal nonlinearities. For arbitrary initial data, the solutions are generated from the corresponding linearized equations. The key is a Fredholm integral equation relating the linearized flow to an auxiliary linear flow. It is analogous to the Marchenko integral equation in integrable systems. We show explicitly how this can be achieved through several examples including reaction-diffusion systems with nonlocal quadratic nonlinearities and the nonlinear Schrodinger equation with a nonlocal cubic nonlinearity. In each case we demonstrate our approach with numerical simulations. We discuss the effectiveness of our approach and how it might be extended.Comment: 4 figure

Diagnosis of Metal Hypersensitivity in Total Knee Arthroplasty: A Case Report

Delayed type hypersensitivity (DTH) reactions are considered infrequent complications in arthroplasty, but have been recognized to be associated with devastating morbidity and substantial decrease in quality of life of affected patients. Chronic inflammation of artificial joints and associated loss of peri-implant bone often require revision surgery. Methods for the diagnosis of implant-related DTH are available but infrequently considered to the full extent. Sequential diagnostics based on exclusion of septic complications, local and systemic metal level determination, lymphocyte transformation testing (LTT), and local T cell subset analysis are required for an unequivocal DTH diagnosis. Here, we report on a patient with a history of chronic rheumatoid arthritis and an unfavorable outcome of unilateral knee arthroplasty. This case illustrates pitfalls and difficulties in the course of recurrent inflammation following joint replacement. In the early course, suspicion of low-grade bacterial infection led to three two-stage revisions. Afterwards, the joint was proven to be sterile. However, metal level quantification revealed release of especially cobalt and chromium from the joint, LTT indicated persisting cobalt and nickel sensitization and subset analysis of T cells from the synovium suggested DTH as a root cause for the inflammatory symptoms. This report aims to recommend the depicted diagnostic algorithm as an adequate tool for future DTH detection. Yet, systemic to local subset ratios for effector memory and regulatory T cells should be derived from sufficient patient numbers to establish it as a diagnostic marker. Moreover, future prospects regarding implant-related DTH diagnostics are discussed. Therapeutic options for the portrayed patient are proposed, considering pharmaceutical, cell-therapeutic and surgical aspects. Patients who experience peri-implant inflammation but do not have obvious mechanical or infectious problems remain a diagnostic challenge and are at high risk of being treated inadequately. Since potentially sensitizing materials are regularly used in arthroplasty, it is essential to detect cases of acute DTH-derived inflammation of an artificial joint at early postoperative stages. This would reduce the severity of inflammation-related long-term consequences for affected patients and may avoid unnecessary revision surgery