Atmospheric Computations to Assess Acidification in Europe: Work in Process

This Research Report contains extended summaries of papers presented at an international technical meeting on atmospheric computations held in Warsaw, September, 1985. The topics discussed include uncertainty analysis of long-range transport models, the current status of selected long-range transport models of particular relevance to policy analysis, and technical problems associated with the linkage of air pollution and ecological models

An Approach to Uncertainty of a Long Range Air Pollutant Transport Model

This paper presents a preliminary framework for analyzing uncertainty of a long range air pollutant transport model. This framework was used to assess EMEP model uncertainty. The uncertainty problem is defined in a decision-making context and a distinction is made between uncertainty analysis, sensitivity analysis, and model calibration/verification. A taxonomy is introduced to organize uncertainty sources. The taxonomy includes: model structure, parameters, forcing functions, initial state and model operation. These categories are further subdivided into diagnostic and forecasting components. To limit the number of uncertainties for quantitative evaluation, some uncertainties are "screened". Methods are introduced to evaluate uncertainties. These include (1) Monte Carlo simulation of composite parameter, forcing function and initial state uncertainties, and (2) statistical analysis of EMEP source-receptor matrices. Preliminary results of applying this methodology to the EMEP model are presented

Nitrogen Deposition Calculations for Europe

Nitrogen deposition calculations for Europe were performed by separate models describing the long range transport of ammonia and oxidized nitrogen. Tests of model results against observations are briefly described. Nitrogen deposition was computed for several NOx emissions reduction scenarios. These reductions were adapted from an OECD study and applied to the 27 largest countries in Europe. They do not refer to a particular target year. A "Maximum feasible NOx emissions reduction" scenario reduced overall European emissions by 62% relative to 1980 emissions. Other scenarios, such as point source reduction or traffic limits, reduced European emissions by 9-35%. Most reduction scenarios affected the pattern of NOx-nitrogen deposition, but did not change very much the overall pattern of total (NOx plus NHx) nitrogen deposition. Depending on the desired level of environmental protection, it may be necessary to reduce ammonia emissions in addition to NOx emissions in order to reduce nitrogen deposition in Europe

Emergency Air Protection: A Survey of Smog Alarm Systems

As Central and Eastern Europe looks to its future, it is faced with a legacy of environmental pollution from its recent past. Three main environmental tasks confront the region: to reduce the burden of pollutants, to revitalize the environment, and to prevent future pollution by implementing "clean technologies." Unfortunately, the funds are not available for taking on all of these huge tasks at once, at least not in an effective way. For this reason it is of utmost importance to set near-term priorities for environmental protection. Faced with a difficult decision, perhaps we must choose the protection of human health as a number one near-term priority. This paper describes one approach to protecting human health from pollutants which can also be accomplished in the coming years; the authors aim to provide an overview of smog alarm systems to experts and citizens in Central and Eastern European cities so that they can consider the option of building such systems in their own cities. To the authors' knowledge, this is the first review of its kind, and it is hoped that it will lead to a closer examination of this practical and effective control strategy

Low Energy, Low Emissions: SO2, NOx and CO2 in Western Europe

A link is made in this paper between proposed low energy scenarios for different Western European countries and the amount of pollutants that may result from these scenarios. Air pollutant emissions are calculated for the ten countries for which low energy scenarios are available. These scenarios emphasize stringent energy efficiency, maximizing the use of renewable (other than nuclear) energy, and minimizing the use of fossil fuels. Under these low energy scenarios, the average per capita energy use (year 2030) in the ten countries is estimated as 97 GJ/person, which is a decrease of 38% relative to 1980. Using the energy consumption figures from the low energy scenarios, together with sector and fuel-specific emission factors from Europe, the resulting emissions of SO2, NOx. and CO2 were computed. These estimates do not take into account any add-on pollution controls over and above what was in place in 1980, or changes in combustion technology; these would result in still lower emissions. Under the low energy scenarios, power plants will continue to be the most important SO2-producing sector, and transportation the most important NOx-producing sector. For CO2, however, no single sector is most important in producing emissions. The low energy scenarios (year 2030) result in a reduction of 54% for SO2 emissions, 37% for NOx emissions, and 41% for CO2 emissions compared to their 1980 levels. It was concluded that energy efficiency improvements and renewable energy use, if economically and institutionally feasible, will be an effective long term option for simultaneously reducing the gaseous emissions that are major contributors to regional acidification and photochemical air pollution, and potential global warming

Data sources for rescuing the rich heritage of Mediterranean historical surface climate data

10.1002/gdj3.4Availability of long-term and high-quality instrumental climate records is still insufficient and the rich heritage of meteorological surface observations is largely underexploited in many parts of the world. This is particularly striking over the Greater Mediterranean region (GMR), where meteorological observations have been taken since the 18th century at some locations. The lack of high quality and long series here is despite this region being regarded as a climate change hot spot. This article mainly assesses relevant sources containing Mediterranean historical climate data and metadata either from online repositories worldwide or physical archives, with the emphasis here on the rich holdings kept at French archives. A particular case study is the data rescue (DARE) program undertaken by the Algerian National Meteorological Service, as well as some of the past and ongoing projects and initiatives aimed at enhancing climate data availability and accessibility over the GMR. Our findings point to the high potential for undertaking DARE activities over the GMR and the need for bringing longer and higher quality climate time series to support a diverse number of scientific and technical assessments and policies

Interregional Air Pollutant Transport: The Linearity Question

This report contains extended abstracts from an international meeting held in Budapest, Hungary. Its main subject is the question of proportionality and linearity between emissions and deposition/airborne concentration of air pollutants including sulfur, nitrogen, oxidants, and acidity. Session topics (which serve here as section headings) included analysis of measurements, ammonia and its implications for linearity, modeling with emphasis on chemistry, simplified approaches to the linearity issue, and results from long-range transport models. Linearity was found to be strongly dependent on the distance between emitters and receptors, the averaging time of pollutants, and the form of deposition

Heavy Metals Contamination in Eastern Europe: Background Load from the Atmosphere

In recent years there has been an increased interest in trace metals in the atmosphere and the environmental effects of their deposition. This is to large extent because heavy metals can accumulate in the biosphere and may be toxic to living systems. On the basis of IIASA's TRACE model, the total (wet plus dry) deposition of As, Cd, Pb and Zn has been estimated for Eastern Europe. These are annual averages for rural areas, and relate to the situation in Europe in the mid-1980s. The maximum deposition value is 3.5 mg m^{-2} yr^{-1} for As, 1.5 mg m^{-2} yr^{-1} for Cd and 50 mg m^{-2} yr^{-1} for Zn. All these maxima occur in Southern Poland. The highest total deposition of Pb (15.0-20.0 mg m^{-2} yr^{-1}) has been computed for western Czechoslovakia and also for southern Poland. Deposition levels throughout most of Eastern Europe are at least one or two orders of magnitude greater than observed in remote parts of the world. The annual average concentration of metals in some rural areas are lower, but within a factor of two of drinking water guidelines. This is cause for concern because some short-term concentrations are almost assuredly much higher than the annual average. Because of long-range transport, there is a very significant transboundary exchange of heavy metals within Eastern Europe. As with acid-causing pollutants, the problem of heavy metals contamination in the region depends on the reduction of this transboundary pollution

Coping with Crisis in Eastern Europe's Environment

Along with the winds of political change in Central and Eastern Europe have come the realities of severely polluted air, water and soil. Among the greatest challenges for Eastern Europeans will be how to cope with these environmental problems during a period of difficult economic and political transition. This book is one of the first published since the revolutions of 1989 giving the views of top environmental experts from six Central and Eastern European countries on these issues. In individual chapters these experts analyze the air and water quality situations of their countries in depth. Much of the data and analyses contained is being made available for the first time to an international audience. This volume not only gives an overview of the current environmental situation, but also presents many ideas for reforms and actions needed for coping with the environmental crisis in each country in the short run. These include suggestions for institutional and economic reforms, as well as specific recommendations for technology transfer and training that are most needed for environmental protection

Water and Fire: Water Needs of Future Coal Development in the Soviet Union and the United States

This report presents estimates of water requirements for future coal use in the USSR and the US. Future levels of coal use were based on scenarios presented by IIASA in Energy in a Finite World. As a first step in the analysis, IIASA's coal scenarios were broken down from the scale of "world-region" to the scale of coal-producing region. This exercise revealed that American and Soviet coal targets, which seem feasible when viewed on the "world-region" scale, may be difficult to attain on the coal-region scale due to insufficient coal reserves in some regions. In the next stage of the analysis, an analytical model was developed, which describes on the coal-region scale the quantity of water required during different stages of coal development from mining to its final conversion to useful energy. Application of this model to each of ten principal coal-producing regions of the US and USSR suggested that roughly 1-2 tons of water will be consumed for every ton-equivalent (tce) of coal-fuel delivered. However, these estimates assume a high degree of water conservation; with less emphasis on conservation perhaps 50% more water will be required. Water requirements for coal were then compared with competitive water uses in each US coal region, as well as estimates of surface water supply in these regions. It was found that the amount of water needed for coal is small relative to other projected water uses such as agriculture and industry. However, after accounting for competitive water uses, there will probably be little or no water available for coal use during dry years in the Southwest and Northwest regions. Unless significant quantities of water can be stored for these years, coal development will have to displace other water uses in these regions. Intense water pressure will probably also occur in the Asian-USSR coal region of Ekibastuz, and possibly in Kuznetsk, Kansk-Achinsk, and Tungusska. It is concluded, therefore, that an overall four- or fivefold expansion of coal use in the US and Soviet Union will probably be constrained to some degree by both limited coal reserves and lack of readily available water